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Model Mayhem IV!


Typhoon Tip

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I have a back of the toilet reader called "The Book Of Useless Information" - NY Times best seller.  It's filled with thousands of factoids that are often tongue-in-cheek humorous but mainly just what the title intimates...  

One such useless gem says that through history, the Ground Hog has been subjectively correct about the tempo of remaining winters, 28% of the time.   ...Just relaying that information... Don't blame the messenger. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a back of the toilet reader called "The Book Of Useless Information" - NY Times best seller.  It's filled with thousands of factoids that are often tongue-in-cheek humorous but mainly just what the title intimates...  

One such useless gem says that through history, the Ground Hog has been subjectively correct about the tempo of remaining winters, 28% of the time.   ...Just relaying that information... Don't blame the messenger. 

 

there's some pretty good negative skill there.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a back of the toilet reader called "The Book Of Useless Information" - NY Times best seller.  It's filled with thousands of factoids that are often tongue-in-cheek humorous but mainly just what the title intimates...  

One such useless gem says that through history, the Ground Hog has been subjectively correct about the tempo of remaining winters, 28% of the time.   ...Just relaying that information... Don't blame the messenger. 

 

Well then, he would be considered a very good hitter of baseballs. 

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Amazingly BOS had 75% of normal snow in January despite a +6.1 temperature departure.  Typically with departures that big it doesn't happen.

I can't believe I've had at least 3"+ on the ground in a month that averaged like +12 at BTV.  

Ive had a lot less days with snow cover in much colder months haha.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

there's some pretty good negative skill there.

ha ha ha... rah-hite!  

So, we got a 62% chance of an early spring based upon past performance alone - hmmm.  

At this point, (and no, this is no 'melt down') I can't say I'd really be opposed to ripping the band-aide of inevitability-acceptance re seasonal change, right off with extreme haste and rapidity this particular year. I like summer enough to look forward to other stuff.

I mean, yeah...people are correct that their seasonal snow totals may not be too far off from normal to really justify much malcontent -- but considering the audience? That strikes me as disingenuous bargaining - 'you' don't really feel that way folks, not a chance.  I applaud that cerebral approach, but that is not the heart. This year, so far, is a failure for winter weather enthusiasm.  You're probably better off just admitting that in the same sentence with accepting that it's just not going to be passable every year, and move on...

Frankly put, it's been a crushing bore. The style of the delivery ... the "style" points?   About a 2 or a 3 on a scale of 1 to 10 ... Symbolically, it's comical really - get us to seasonality the most uninteresting way imaginable, and achieve that "uninteresting" as though it was goal to do so...with panache at that! 

But, no one asked... 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ha ha ha... rah-hite!  

So, we got a 62% chance of an early spring based upon past performance alone - hmmm.  

At this point, (and no, this is no 'melt down') I can't say I'd really be opposed to ripping the band-aide of inevitability-acceptance re seasonal change, right off with extreme haste and rapidity this particular year. I like summer enough to look forward to other stuff.

I mean, yeah...people are correct that their seasonal snow totals may not be too far off from normal to really justify much malcontent -- but considering the audience? That strikes me as disingenuous bargaining - 'you' don't really feel that way folks, not a chance.  I applaud that cerebral approach, but that is not the heart. This year, so far, is a failure for winter weather enthusiasm.  You're probably better off just admitting that in the same sentence with accepting that it's just not going to be passable every year, and move on...

Frankly put, it's been a crushing bore. The style of the delivery ... the "style" points?   About a 2 or a 3 on a scale of 1 to 10 ... Symbolically, it's comical really - get us to seasonality the most uninteresting way imaginable, and achieve that "uninteresting" as though it was goal to do so...with panache at that! 

But, no one asked... 

Hopefully we "rip the band aid off" quickly...I always am very eager to get into April in New England. Usually the weather is stellar.

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The heights out west are also a big factors....you have a much deeper vortex into the PAC NW this run which helps pump the heights up a bit to the east. Remember how we were saying one of the larger scale features helping make this colder was some ridging was trying to pop in the northwest right as the storm tries to get going....well that is non-existent this run, so it is no surprise that it ended up somewhat warmer this run. We also had higher heights in Quebec this run...so the high isn't pressing down as well.

 

All this stuff has been changing quite a bit from run to run.

 

You can even see how obscenely volatile the ensemble solutions are....look at the difference from the 06z suite:

 

 

f144.gif

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully we "rip the band aid off" quickly...I always am very eager to get into April in New England. Usually the weather is stellar.

Ah ahahahaha - well put!  

Of course it's a fool's dream either way...  I think maybe 1 in 10 or perhaps 1 in 5 years feature subjectively passable Aprils - otherwise, ... heh.  

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48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I can't believe I've had at least 3"+ on the ground in a month that averaged like +12 at BTV.  

Ive had a lot less days with snow cover in much colder months haha.

Proves the point that you like to make that we can snow in less than optimal regimes as long as we get the moisture.

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