dryslot Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Figured as much at this lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 6 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Gefs look good for next week Happy Birthday too bad we couldn't repeat the epic SWFE to Coastal of 15, one great storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 I have a back of the toilet reader called "The Book Of Useless Information" - NY Times best seller. It's filled with thousands of factoids that are often tongue-in-cheek humorous but mainly just what the title intimates... One such useless gem says that through history, the Ground Hog has been subjectively correct about the tempo of remaining winters, 28% of the time. ...Just relaying that information... Don't blame the messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I have a back of the toilet reader called "The Book Of Useless Information" - NY Times best seller. It's filled with thousands of factoids that are often tongue-in-cheek humorous but mainly just what the title intimates... One such useless gem says that through history, the Ground Hog has been subjectively correct about the tempo of remaining winters, 28% of the time. ...Just relaying that information... Don't blame the messenger. there's some pretty good negative skill there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I have a back of the toilet reader called "The Book Of Useless Information" - NY Times best seller. It's filled with thousands of factoids that are often tongue-in-cheek humorous but mainly just what the title intimates... One such useless gem says that through history, the Ground Hog has been subjectively correct about the tempo of remaining winters, 28% of the time. ...Just relaying that information... Don't blame the messenger. Well then, he would be considered a very good hitter of baseballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well then, he would be considered a very good hitter of baseballs. His handlers are very well versed in hitting the bottle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Amazingly BOS had 75% of normal snow in January despite a +6.1 temperature departure. Typically with departures that big it doesn't happen. I can't believe I've had at least 3"+ on the ground in a month that averaged like +12 at BTV. Ive had a lot less days with snow cover in much colder months haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I can't believe I've had at least 3"+ on the ground in a month that averaged like +12 at BTV. Ive had a lot less days with snow cover in much colder months haha. PVD top ten temp and top 15 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 What's the Sunday night system looking like for the region? ...or is south, and out to sea without any affect on us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Through 117 GFS looks nice. Powderfreak may have to start worrying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, Cold Miser said: What's the Sunday night system looking like for the region? ...or is south, and out to sea without any affect on us? There isn't one. Maybe some light snows in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: What's the Sunday night system looking like for the region? ...or is south, and out to sea without any affect on us? Low tracks north of Maine, Maybe some lt snow far NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Looks like a nice burst at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 The way guidance handles Quebec is gonna be a huge factor next week...they have been all over the map with the heights there from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The way guidance handles Quebec is gonna be a huge factor next week...they have been all over the map with the heights there from run to run. Yup. Verbatim 12z GFS not a stout with that vs the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 The Initial surge is warmer less impactful but at this stage its gonna flip flop where or how strong the high is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Still gonna be congrats NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: there's some pretty good negative skill there. ha ha ha... rah-hite! So, we got a 62% chance of an early spring based upon past performance alone - hmmm. At this point, (and no, this is no 'melt down') I can't say I'd really be opposed to ripping the band-aide of inevitability-acceptance re seasonal change, right off with extreme haste and rapidity this particular year. I like summer enough to look forward to other stuff. I mean, yeah...people are correct that their seasonal snow totals may not be too far off from normal to really justify much malcontent -- but considering the audience? That strikes me as disingenuous bargaining - 'you' don't really feel that way folks, not a chance. I applaud that cerebral approach, but that is not the heart. This year, so far, is a failure for winter weather enthusiasm. You're probably better off just admitting that in the same sentence with accepting that it's just not going to be passable every year, and move on... Frankly put, it's been a crushing bore. The style of the delivery ... the "style" points? About a 2 or a 3 on a scale of 1 to 10 ... Symbolically, it's comical really - get us to seasonality the most uninteresting way imaginable, and achieve that "uninteresting" as though it was goal to do so...with panache at that! But, no one asked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 S/w is stronger out west than 00z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 That book must smell nice Tip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Snow than cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: ha ha ha... rah-hite! So, we got a 62% chance of an early spring based upon past performance alone - hmmm. At this point, (and no, this is no 'melt down') I can't say I'd really be opposed to ripping the band-aide of inevitability-acceptance re seasonal change, right off with extreme haste and rapidity this particular year. I like summer enough to look forward to other stuff. I mean, yeah...people are correct that their seasonal snow totals may not be too far off from normal to really justify much malcontent -- but considering the audience? That strikes me as disingenuous bargaining - 'you' don't really feel that way folks, not a chance. I applaud that cerebral approach, but that is not the heart. This year, so far, is a failure for winter weather enthusiasm. You're probably better off just admitting that in the same sentence with accepting that it's just not going to be passable every year, and move on... Frankly put, it's been a crushing bore. The style of the delivery ... the "style" points? About a 2 or a 3 on a scale of 1 to 10 ... Symbolically, it's comical really - get us to seasonality the most uninteresting way imaginable, and achieve that "uninteresting" as though it was goal to do so...with panache at that! But, no one asked... Hopefully we "rip the band aid off" quickly...I always am very eager to get into April in New England. Usually the weather is stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Canadian has us sipping Mai Tais. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Still a strong cad signal even with a less then favorable solution this run on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 The heights out west are also a big factors....you have a much deeper vortex into the PAC NW this run which helps pump the heights up a bit to the east. Remember how we were saying one of the larger scale features helping make this colder was some ridging was trying to pop in the northwest right as the storm tries to get going....well that is non-existent this run, so it is no surprise that it ended up somewhat warmer this run. We also had higher heights in Quebec this run...so the high isn't pressing down as well. All this stuff has been changing quite a bit from run to run. You can even see how obscenely volatile the ensemble solutions are....look at the difference from the 06z suite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Yeah it was easy to see early on how it was going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Interesting follow-up look on the GFS with that southern streamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully we "rip the band aid off" quickly...I always am very eager to get into April in New England. Usually the weather is stellar. Ah ahahahaha - well put! Of course it's a fool's dream either way... I think maybe 1 in 10 or perhaps 1 in 5 years feature subjectively passable Aprils - otherwise, ... heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Wintry Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 48 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I can't believe I've had at least 3"+ on the ground in a month that averaged like +12 at BTV. Ive had a lot less days with snow cover in much colder months haha. Proves the point that you like to make that we can snow in less than optimal regimes as long as we get the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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