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Model Mayhem IV!


Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, tamarack said:

March in NNE.  On 3/31/98 I was in the woods NE of Patten, perhaps 80 miles south of Madawaska, and we had mid-30s fog and sprinkles.  Meanwhile, PWM was sniffing at 90.  (Peaked at 88.)

Yup that's pretty extreme as well. 

 

But my experience last year was on March 9...still fairly early to have that warm of temperatures in NNE...let alone 80 degrees plus.  A difference of 62 degrees from north to south in one state.  Deep deep winter to very much summer!!! 

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3 hours ago, tamarack said:

March in NNE.  On 3/31/98 I was in the woods NE of Patten, perhaps 80 miles south of Madawaska, and we had mid-30s fog and sprinkles.  Meanwhile, PWM was sniffing at 90.  (Peaked at 88.)

Oh ... I know that one well.  I've spun reflective words on the forum over the years, reminiscing back to that faithful heat spell of late March of 1998. 

It was actually three day stint for us down here in Massachusetts.  The first of which was March 29, which was 88 F up at the weather station at UML. The days that followed were 89 and 90 for the 30 and 31st, respectively.

The atmosphere was just bizarrely kinetically charged.  There was desert sere DPs during the breezy torch of three days, like 19 F DPs at 84 one hour if I recall... Just amazing.  Heat early in the season typically does come with yellow grass, dusty eyes and bloody noses but that was really pushing it!  The nights were not cool though. The wind stayed up above calm and those nights were still upper 40s with those low DPs.  Really kind of fascinating...

But on that third day, the 31st... I remember at 3: pm, CAR, ME was ripping NE with gust to 45 mph, and the temp was 34 F; at that hour, it was 90.4 on the monitor in the Met lab. Flags around campus blithely wobbled laissez faire, mocking the date without a care. The warm exuberance was actually borderline uncomfortable in classes and lecture halls, as facilities definitely had not scheduled the turn over of heat to a.c.  

Snap!

8:30 pm, the wind starts gust mad with dust kicked up and by dawn it was 38 F... I think it even snowed during that next week.  

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh ... I know that one well.  I've spun reflective words on the forum over the years, reminiscing back to that faithful heat spell of late March of 1998. 

It was actually three day stint for us down here in Massachusetts.  The first of which was March 29, which was 88 F up at the weather station at UML. The days that followed were 89 and 90 for the 30 and 31st, respectively.

The atmosphere was just bizarrely kinetically charged.  There was desert sere DPs during the breezy torch of three days, like 19 F DPs at 84 one hour if I recall... Just amazing.  Heat early in the season typically does come with yellow grass, dusty eyes and bloody noses but that was really pushing it!  The nights were not cool though. The wind stayed up above calm and those nights were still upper 40s with those low DPs.  Really kind of fascinating...

But on that third day, the 31st... I remember at 3: pm, CAR, ME was ripping NE with gust to 45 mph, and the temp was 34 F; at that hour, it was 90.4 on the monitor in the Met lab. Flags around campus blithely wobbled laissez faire, mocking the date without a care. The warm exuberance was actually borderline uncomfortable in classes and lecture halls, as facilities definitely had not scheduled the turn over of heat to a.c.  

Snap!

8:30 pm, the wind starts gust mad with dust kicked up and by dawn it was 38 F... I think it even snowed during that next week.  

I went from 28F to 112F in June of 2006 when I skied at Mammoth Mtn in the morning and was in Death Valley in the afternoon.

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1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I went from 28F to 112F in June of 2006 when I skied at Mammoth Mtn in the morning and was in Death Valley in the afternoon.

lol ok...that's got us all beat!! Wow...most impressive!!  Amazing stuff..all our examples!!

 

Now let's get some winter weather of our own in here come the next 5-7 days and beyond.

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8 minutes ago, White Rain said:

GFS looks great for the SWFE next week. Too bad it's 6 days away.

Tons of risk with the setup because of the bigger cutter behind the weaker lead low and just the 2 low setup overall.  Something is going to change there so it's definitely highly subject to change right now   

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14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

CMC is pretty ugly for SNE... decent front end dump for NNE middle of next week while SNE gets virtually no precip.

I've withdrawn enough investment in this season now that I'm past the melting point.

If something happens to make it worth a damn, great....if not, at least its almost over-

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've withdrawn enough investment in this season now that I'm past the melting point.

If something happens to make it worth a damn, great....if not, at least its almost over-

Yeah I mean... I've got 30" on the season... so even if I don't see another flake... this winter won't even sniff ratter status statistically... it would simply end below average.

 

Still a long ways to go. The next 2-3 weeks I would assume are one of if not the most snowy periods around here. We'll see how it goes... things have changed quite a bit as we get closer in this year... maybe that'll work in our favor 

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Next week could def still be ugly but on the other hand the euro continues its march eastward. The primary is well east of even yesterday's 12z run...went through Detroit and now goes through BUF/ROC. 

That storm is still like 5.5-6 days out though so keep that in perspective. That's what happens though when you start following a system at 240 hours. The Super Bowl threat is now basically nothing still with several days to go and a storm that everyone was jumping off the bridge about on a 228 hour prog is now trending fast into a legit winter threat. 

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26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why don't you like the mid week storm?

I didn't say that. Just lots of time left. Last nights runs were kind of nice looking...but you'd be foolish to get sucked in..at least in SNE. Looks great NNE. At least the models showed a good high prior to the onset of preicp.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I didn't say that. Just lots of time left. Last nights runs were kind of nice looking...but you'd be foolish to get sucked in..at least in SNE. Looks great NNE. At least the models showed a good high prior to the onset of preicp.

This has the look of 12/16/07.

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