Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: SWFE season it would seem. awful lot of cold prior and after, something to watch as the switched flipped for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: NBC developed it Noyes has mentioned it's something they have developed in house over the last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: awful lot of cold prior and after, something to watch as the switched flipped for some reason. I would prefer the pattern as depicted. At least we're in the running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 that's an amazing system actually.. that's below 974 mb over Cleveland, with reasonably strong lead side polar high nosing some damming down into SNE from Maine. technically, N of the Pike is still scalping/snow mix at 168 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Noyes has mentioned it's something they have developed in house over the last year. yep they at NBC use it, don't know the value but the 10 day forecasts they give are pretty terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: that's an amazing system actually.. that's below 974 mb over Cleveland, with reasonably strong lead side polar high nosing some damming down into SNE from Maine. technically, N of the Pike is still scalping/snow mix at 168 hours 974, cleveland, hmm I know that number lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 He may be talking about WRF model kits. About 10 years ago it was kind of a fad to install and run a WRF... version on your own home system. I'm not sure what's happened to that as a movement; doesn't seem to have caught on since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Holy crap Will in Michigan on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 that's an epic blizzard for eastern Wisconsin, Michigan/Indiana and probably wrapping briefly into NW Ohio.. Two days later and i'll be damned if that's not a low latitude Sonoran heat plume pulled out into the lower Plains... 20 to 21 C 850 mb air?! zomb so early - but anyway ...these post D 5 runs are nothing if not entertaining... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 The Euru has done this now three years in a row... (yes, i'm just dorky enough to have kept track). I tries to pull a heat signal in winter into Kansas, OK and Tx... For shear morbid fascination I'd love to witness it be 21 F in Boston while it is 89 F in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 It can only get better from here....................Or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Even that wound up that's an icy system for the interior. Euro is frigid at the sfc to start. Meaningless this far out but that's a good cad signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Trending in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Even that wound up that's an icy system for the interior. Euro is frigid at the sfc to start. Meaningless this far out but that's a good cad signal yeah ... sure is. that would almost have to correct the surface fronts toward some long ass occlusion with trippy on the LI sound... nice ageo lock in 32.1 F with tree sag ice over a matted down 3-6" from the initial IB snows before the icing. it's amazing how we can visualize so much from a la-la chart. hahaha. but, anyway - that cold high up there changes the map in my mind. don't focus on the quasar at the center of the galaxy when there's nice mixy super nova out here on the arm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 This is definitely a system that could easily stay all frozen. There's actually some larger scale wave patterns that would favor colder...esp the huge EPO dump going on at the time of the system developing...along with an amplifying ridge into the west coast. We even have a really weak pseudo block in the Davis Straight from two ridge nodes (one from east of Greenland and the other from the downstream ridge of a PV lobe in NW Canada) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is definitely a system that could easily stay all frozen. There's actually some larger scale wave patterns that would favor colder...esp the huge EPO dump going on at the time of the system developing...along with an amplifying ridge into the west coast. We even have a really weak pseudo block in the Davis Straight from two ridge nodes (one from east of Greenland and the other from the downstream ridge of a PV lobe in NW Canada) Any blocking - anything at all to slow down the Tuesday storm and drive it north of Nova Scotia - and this would duck under that high and go to town. But that thing flies out into the Atlantic. Unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 ECMWF and GFS are concurring on a coherent p8 MJO propagation post D10. Will be interesting to monitor constructive interference with ongoing precursor. I am becoming more confident that a negative NAM period will occur (NAO too) regardless of whether we destroy the upper stratospheric vorticies, though obviously ideal. W 1/W2 follow up are typically effective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, Isotherm said: ECMWF and GFS are concurring on a coherent p8 MJO propagation post D10. Will be interesting to monitor constructive interference with ongoing precursor. I am becoming more confident that a negative NAM period will occur (NAO too) regardless of whether we destroy the upper stratospheric vorticies, though obviously ideal. W 1/W2 follow up are typically effective. Prolly end up being the most incredible winter in spring ever with that beast... it like just reaches Phase 8 then goes straight into orbit with the PNA already crankin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Euro ensembles looking very CADish for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles looking very CADish for next week. Pretty cold on the weds system, That would be more frozen then liquid for some, Something to watch as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: The Euru has done this now three years in a row... (yes, i'm just dorky enough to have kept track). I tries to pull a heat signal in winter into Kansas, OK and Tx... For shear morbid fascination I'd love to witness it be 21 F in Boston while it is 89 F in Oklahoma. Last March 2016, I left Northern Maine(Madawaska) in the morning to head back to SNE. It was 19 degrees and snowing there...6 hours later in Portland, ME it was 81 degrees..I had to literally put the AC on in the truck!!! Craziest temp swing I've ever seen in the same day ever..and all in the same state! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles looking very CADish for next week. I could even see a significant mixed storm (snow/ice) on Tue into Wed AM... followed by a delayed torch and some rain. Maybe even a full first wave that's all frozen and then we get something as the front passes Wednesday with the primary way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Very low chance of any warmth getting into SNE next week given that setup. Lean cold folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I could even see a significant mixed storm (snow/ice) on Tue into Wed AM... followed by a delayed torch and some rain. Maybe even a full first wave that's all frozen and then we get something as the front passes Wednesday with the primary way west. Yea that seems reasonable given the look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 A nice 180 from last night. The more melting that occurs, the better the mid to long range looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Last March 2016, I left Northern Maine(Madawaska) in the morning to head back to SNE. It was 19 degrees and snowing there...6 hours later in Portland, ME it was 81 degrees..I had to literally put the AC on in the truck!!! Craziest temp swing I've ever seen in the same day ever..and all in the same state! March in NNE. On 3/31/98 I was in the woods NE of Patten, perhaps 80 miles south of Madawaska, and we had mid-30s fog and sprinkles. Meanwhile, PWM was sniffing at 90. (Peaked at 88.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 The extended never looked terrible. The modeled cutter yesterday just sent everyone over the edge. I mean, 2015 is not walking through that door...but it wasn't God awful by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The extended never looked terrible. The modeled cutter yesterday just sent everyone over the edge. I mean, 2015 is not walking through that door...but it wasn't God awful by any means. Jerry and Ray were rescued in the Charles and seem to be recovering although Ray is clinging to his life vest like a kid with a new toy. CG did report they heard shouts of screw Ct, screw the ski areas please let me drown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The extended never looked terrible. The modeled cutter yesterday just sent everyone over the edge. I mean, 2015 is not walking through that door...but it wasn't God awful by any means. You right. Just felt gloomy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The extended never looked terrible. The modeled cutter yesterday just sent everyone over the edge. I mean, 2015 is not walking through that door...but it wasn't God awful by any means. Fuk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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