dryslot Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Jerry might not add an s but his melt(s) were among the top five of all time last nightIt was one of the better ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Like getting used to a toothache?Same pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 I can't believe teeth pain just came up! Over the last 10 days I've been wrangling with dentist appointments over a questionabld criwning procedures. It's left me in agony. Jesus Christ. Been eating Advil like Chiclets for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yo Iso' I was noticing that since January 1, there were two minor positive perturbations earlier in the month, in the Z-anomaly, that took place closer to the tropopausal altitudes. They were also co-located in time with negative shifts (or attempted shifts) in the Arctic Oscillation. ( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ ) But, those did not have a U-anomaly associated ... none that were much more obvious above nominal. However, very recently ... a stronger much larger Z-anomaly has appeared, and is co-located in time with also (this time) a robust negative U-anomaly region ...Both taking place at very high altitudes. Thus, very high up the circulation of the PV is probably breaking down... The question is, do these changes propagate down in altitude? That is critical - the downwelling. Also, we now have a sudden materialization of much larger warm temperature anomaly mass that has taken place over that same recent interval of time. It's onset was also very high in altitude, in that same 2 to 5 hPa level; obviously, they are related as best logic dictates. Additionally, very recently a new warm node is materializing in the lower region between the 10 to 30 hPa levels, out in time. That total temperature observation, together with these wind component analysis', tentatively signal that there is indeed downwelling. There's a question of momentum in my mind, as the temperature anomalies and wind component ones as well ...they are all moderately strong. Interesting. That's of particular importance if we are interested in seeing an SSW lead to a -AO response...the usual correlation shows that when warm anomalies and particularly the wind component anomalies register into the 70 to 100 hPa levels, that typically when the PV really starts pancaking/breaking down where it counts... The flow then buckles at mid levels around the 500 mb usual devils and blah blah blah... Additionally, that entire evolution takes usually 20 days... We are (if proven into an SSW event) approximately 1/3 the way through the time-lag correlation. Having said that, some of the Z-anomalies have already begin to show up at lower altitudes. The Us lag behind. It's probably more critical than not to have both be on the same page, but... The early January "dips" in the AO that seem to coincide with the modest positive Z-anomalies that took place at that time, could be a flag that the entire atmosphere is physically prepared to correlate earlier with the Z-anomaly. Interesting. Anyway, the GEFs model the AO to tank anyway... it's already supposedly begun (which may be consistent with the supposition immediately above)..but that drop continues for the next 10 to 15 days among all members.. Total correction is about +2 SD to - 2 SD... or a total phase transition of 4 or more standard deviations. I think that's a significant signal regardless of exact cause - but, in the absence of any antecedent planetary wave events and given to the up toward down observations et al, I hunch the AO's recently modeled characteristics are on whole probably more than not linked. Just my 2 cent o Tip: Nice post. What's interesting to me is that we seem to be undergoing a meet in the middle scenario whereby the upper levels are assaulted with a subsequent bottom up event. One flaw in this progression is that the ongoing w1 will barely reverse zonal winds and the 10hpa vortex does reconsolidate, so it is insufficient in that regard. However, if one notes the historical data, tropospheric NAM reversals actually tend to precede stratospheric warming events. The perturbation lower in the atmosphere with upwelling w2 may have a better chance of effectuating real change rather than the top down w1. Last Jan we had an upwell which didnt materially affect 10hpa, but it reversed the tropospheric NAM. Will be interesting to see how we progress. Additional forcing on the vortex from MJO induced wave flux could aid the upwell in mid feb. Either way I am leaning toward a neg AO for the second half of feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I can't believe teeth pain just came up! Over the last 10 days I've been wrangling with dentist appointments over a questionabld criwning procedures. It's left me in agony. Jesus Christ. Been eating Advil like Chiclets for days Hi Tip, There is nothing worse than dental pain. If you are looking for a 2nd opinion on what is going on with the crown procedure I suggest Dr William Caldwell. Depending on the day of the week he is in North Andover, Billerica, or Nashua NH. Today he is in the North Andover office. The office number is 978-688-4721. He's does excellent work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Y'all hear about the CFS weeklies? Apparently they're hot to the touch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Seen it all now, from vday meals to dental procedures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Damn look at northern Maine Saturday, cold high for sure Presque Isle, ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I can't believe teeth pain just came up! Over the last 10 days I've been wrangling with dentist appointments over a questionabld criwning procedures. It's left me in agony. Jesus Christ. Been eating Advil like Chiclets for days Hi Tip, I should have mentioned this in my previous post. Usually pain to that degree involves an infection, not always but usually. If the tooth has not had a root canal done on it then it may need one. Hopefully you are feeling better soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 32 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Hi Tip, There is nothing worse than dental pain. If you are looking for a 2nd opinion on what is going on with the crown procedure I suggest Dr William Caldwell. Depending on the day of the week he is in North Andover, Billerica, or Nashua NH. Today he is in the North Andover office. The office number is 978-688-4721. He's does excellent work. thx man! yeah i'm getting close ... I got guys at work that want to refer their dentists too - so, nice to know there are other options other than Count Rugen out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Seen it all now, from vday meals to dental procedures. I would rather have a root canal than these past 2 **** winters here IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Hi Tip, I should have mentioned this in my previous post. Usually pain to that degree involves an infection, not always but usually. If the tooth has not had a root canal done on it then it may need one. Hopefully you are feeling better soon. yeah no, he said he specifically looked for that with different technologies the last visit and didn't see any evidence of that sort of thing. my mother has unusually sensitive dentin and am wondering if perhaps some congenital torture was handed down through us from the genetic a-hole god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Helluva block across Canada on the Euro, Ct peeps like that run at 150-156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Away from dentures and back to weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 Time to poke the hornet's nest .. should that GGEM solution evolve just a pube S-E with that total deep layer evolution, that becomes a truly historic monster for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: I would rather have a root canal than these past 2 **** winters here IMBY. Still better than living in the Southeast of US of A. But i get the pain though. Your fortunes will turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Away from dentures and back to weather Still cuts but nice thump to ice to rain, evolving. CNE ice ice baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Today's Euro definitely looks more promising with more of a inland transfer of energy to a low farther east that bombs to 972 in ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah no, he said he specifically looked for that with different technologies the last visit and didn't see any evidence of that sort of thing. my mother has unusually sensitive dentin and am wondering if perhaps some congenital torture was handed down through us from the genetic a-hole god Did he perform a percussion test or test to see if the tooth is sensitive to cold and or heat? I've sent a few friends to him who were having dental emergencies and they were so happy with the results that they switched over to him. Just a thought on my part. I'm been in your situation so I understand that level of pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 well, that's an interesting evolution from D6 to 7 on the Euro ... Can't say that's impossible, but it would be a first for this season to actually succeed in a 970 mb low in the midriff Michigan. in the meantime, the D6 ...if there were no D7 you'd think big ice storm cooking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Did he perform a percussion test or test to see if the tooth is sensitive to cold and or heat? I've sent a few friends to him who were having dental emergencies and they were so happy with the results that they switched over to him. Just a thought on my part. I'm been in your situation so I understand that level of pain. thing is.. .the permanent crown went in yesterday, and today my pain management has been easier by a fair correction - so... I'm thinking that hyper sensitivity may be more it than infection - besides, I did look that stuff up and study about it and I don't have the symptoms of for it. Not saying it won't return... but we'll see. Definitely thanks for the head's up though. I hear ya on the dental pain. it's unrelenting. it doesn't modulate, or throb in my case. just PAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ..... N until further notice. ...it's like someone blowing a train horn of apoplectic nerve angst, perpetually - most f' up thing man. like ...why why why is it necessary to do that... holy moly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Still cuts but nice thump to ice to rain, evolving. CNE ice ice baby How warm does surface get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Nice prolonged front ender on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, eyewall said: Today's Euro definitely looks more promising with more of a inland transfer of energy to a low farther east that bombs to 972 in ME. Yea and its juicy , thats a pretty good look for you today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How warm does surface get? You probably upper 30's after a good front end thump. 50s in EMA, you know the drill in that situation. Very juicy with 2 inch QPF spots showing up. like Jerry said long drawn out front ender before main LP cuts up through Buffalo, definitely has Miller B potential with that high sitting there. Another day another solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 Know what sucks about this run... the flow compression has eased off a bit in the deep south. The 582 has receded S of MIA and south TX prior to the trough ejection out of the west, yet it still goes west? hmmm. The reason is the ridge post the trough injection in the west, if that pops a bit taller, that changes the geometry of things down stream and ...my hunch is that period of time really should be watched. it's taking shaping during one helluva PNA rise with ample thickness gradients in place -.that's simply rife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Since this is the model thread, does anyone know anything about the in house model that Matt Noyes refers to during his forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 SWFE season it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Since this is the model thread, does anyone know anything about the in house model that Matt Noyes refers to during his forecasts? NBC developed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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