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Model Mayhem IV!


Typhoon Tip

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6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It looks a little better but these Quebec lows make me shutter. Reminds me of last year too much (and this year has only played out slightly better in the CPV).

You should be getting use to them by now you have had enough of them give you the shaft...............lol

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It's a trend ...even if proven a 'faux trend.'    It began on the 12z run yesterday, though folks were still sizzling in a heightened sense of forlorn passion at the time to really notice.  

The 18z run yesterday carried it along...with a bit more polar high situated over Ontario. Then, the 00z out and out made reference synoptically (though you'd have to have an open mind) for one of Kevin's coveted ice deals.... 

Now, this run appears to edge even more in a flatter Lakes ejecta and plausible better signal for a mess really...  

We've seen sort of false trends deal us reverses a few times this winter.  A couple three or four or even five runs start going yummy, then waits to matriculate in the most possible hearts it can before then taking Schadenfreude with the truth.  

Kidding of course.. 

I'm still riding the general Teleconnection signal for next week.  The gist of which is... we enter a new rising PNA with a recovery period in -EPO suggesting that the rising PNA happens in a sufficiently cold medium.  That's our canvas.  Will allow the model's to prove liars until we are ...I'd say D4 or 5s.

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The seasonal trend on a lot of these lakes cutter systems this season have been to trend to a more sheared strung out system as we get closer in range in many cases, Not saying that this one ends up that way, But you have to keep that in mind going forward that is a real possibility.

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