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Model Mayhem IV!


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

Oh, the trough will drop down tomorrow...

bet your bottom dollar that the EURO ...

will show sommmeeee...

just thinking about tomorrow...

clears away the frustration and the sorrow...

till there's noneeee...

the EURO, the EURO, we love ya, the EURO....

Winter's always 10 days awayyyyyy....

 

Lol, just watched Annie with my family on Sunday.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've been trying to stay away from that specific thinking process in my posts about the high(ish) heights in the deep south. Mainly for fearing knee jerk vitriol that would ensue ... Again, (also said this a week or two ago) we keep posting that it is "the southeast ridge" ; what I am seeing is more than a southeast ridge.  

Heights from the south of Japan clear to the Americans and east to western Africa are higher than normal by a modest amount; still a key amount that as the seasonal heights normally pressed S with the cooling of the northern latitudes, that resulting gradient was been "too much".  The consequence of more than the normal number of those geopotential lines is increasing(ed) wind velocities.  That physically does a few things that are not good ... 

I've been noticing the GEFS wanting to relax that in the Atlantic at the end of the run lately. The GEPS, not so much.

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We could get away with imperfections if we had blocking though....so in that sense, the lack of ATL blocking does hurt...it makes us completely dependent on the Pacific.

Hell, when we got that little pseudo west-based -NAO from that Hudson Bay block last week, we managed at least a half-decent even over the interior from a completely repulsive airmass and PAC pattern. So that is how a -NAO can help...also in a pattern like the 1/12/11 storm that epic month, the first part of the month there actually had some pretty big western troughing but that epic NAO block just shoved all of it south as it tried to progress eastward and we basically bowling balled our way to a MECS/HECS.

 

No argument that the PAC is more important, but it's definitely not the only game in town.

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48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We had no blocking in 13-14 and 14-15. The pacific is the issue and lack of stable +pNA or -EPO

But if we had a -NAO wouldn't that help to off-set the Pacific?  I feel like we can work with one if the other isn't agreeable.  It probably isn't just the Pacific's fault is it?

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21 minutes ago, CoolMike said:

Is there any hope for the clown range storm the middle of next week?  The long wave set-up seems to have shifted west.  Is even NNE already out of the game?  I'm still hoping for some sort of miraculous recovery.

actually yes ... hence "clown range" 

people's patience are nearing an end, however, so... expect a lot of irrational hostility and /or general bs on this and/or other forums that are primarily peopled by those with that an odd border-line or outright dysfunctional psychological codependency on snow/winter storms

 - we laugh; that's what it is..

annywho, the 18z GFS was really very close to being a pretty big ice storm.  As is, not - but close!  It still takes the storm through the Lakes, but it is also stronger with lead side polar anticyclone over mid Ontario..If that lead high gets so much as 6 mb stronger, and the storm its self travels just a little more east of it's current Detroit transit, you got power outage outta that sort of a correction.  Anyone tossing hands as though that correction is automatically not going to happen at this sort of time range needs to do us all a favor and toss themselves off the forum ...  

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33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We could get away with imperfections if we had blocking though....so in that sense, the lack of ATL blocking does hurt...it makes us completely dependent on the Pacific.

Hell, when we got that little pseudo west-based -NAO from that Hudson Bay block last week, we managed at least a half-decent even over the interior from a completely repulsive airmass and PAC pattern. So that is how a -NAO can help...also in a pattern like the 1/12/11 storm that epic month, the first part of the month there actually had some pretty big western troughing but that epic NAO block just shoved all of it south as it tried to progress eastward and we basically bowling balled our way to a MECS/HECS.

 

No argument that the PAC is more important, but it's definitely not the only game in town.

Very well said..

Bottom line, we need a mechanism for cold delivery  - pick the poison, but you without it, no party. That's the gist of it..

We are not native to a latitude that can do it just based upon our latitude.  We do better than say ... D.C., but that's just because we are close enough to source wagons to hitch a ride more readily than they are.  When the pattern pulls cold and even prevents us... we still cook.  Bitter reality I know -

There used to be the preponderant false impression that it was all about -NAO ... I used to hammer no no no the Pac is the primary loading pattern for cold; the NAO is an important assist.  Midriff Canada does create enough of it's own cold though, that a -NAO can do it alone ...but in that paradigm, the Pac can't be against it either. 

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19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

But if we had a -NAO wouldn't that help to off-set the Pacific?  I feel like we can work with one if the other isn't agreeable.  It probably isn't just the Pacific's fault is it?

Yes, but I am clearing up the misconception that it's just the ATL blocking. It's not. Blocking is done UFN. 

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