ApacheTrout Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heeeh, no - that bit of sophistry doesn't sound very convincing to those who choose an analytical approach to reality, and by pure proxy of the scientific method...are compelled to keep an open mind to possibilities. "Something" doesn't mean anything in logic (let's start there) because if you don't know what you are looking for (by use of 'something') how are you going to know when you've found it? Now...just it's okay my friend. Ur pissed off and annoyed that the pattern expectation we (might have) grown accustomed to believing was in route just got dashed and smoked. I know the sensation - I'm not saying I'm above. But let's just call it what it is, 'I'm annoyed', nod in understanding, and move on... Of course I'm annoyed. And never pretended to tie this to analytics or to dashing of expectations, as I possess neither skills nor hope. This is simply a past is prelude approach, and with current patterns similar to those of the past three years, I make an educated guess that this year isn't going to be much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said: Of course I'm annoyed. And never pretended to tie this to analytics or to dashing of expectations, as I possess neither skills nor hope. This is simply a past is prelude approach, and with current patterns similar to those of the past three years, I make an educated guess that this year isn't going to be much different. Interesting way to put that ... It's really similar, if not outright "Stockholm Syndrome" The gist of that, for those that don't know what it means, is when one becomes so used to one's captures that they begin to sympathize with them. In extreme cases, abductees become willing participants... In this paradigm, we get so used to the weather behaving like we don't want it, ... it becomes difficult to visualize it happening any other way. Unfortunately, that is not an "educated guess" ... that is still based on an emotion response/outlook on matters. So, taken for what you want it to be/mean... it's up to you'all ... It doesn't matter what it did last week if next week is entirely different - one does not preclude the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 The patriot's are like the pattern we've been in ,and i'm not betting against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Interesting way to put that ... It's really similar, if not outright "Stockholm Syndrome" The gist of that, for those that don't know what it means, is when one becomes so used to one's captures that they begin to sympathize with them. In extreme cases, abductees become willing participants... In this paradigm, we get so used to the weather behaving like we don't want it, ... it becomes difficult to visualize it happening any other way. Unfortunately, that is not an "educated guess" ... that is still based on an emotion response/outlook on matters. So, taken for what you want it to be/mean... it's up to you'all ... It doesn't matter what it did last week if next week is entirely different - one does not preclude the other. One can look around and see things as the product of teleconnections, the MJO, heights in AK, tensions among operational members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, et al.... and describe things as they've happened, and accurately see what's coming tomorrow, the day after, and then some. Others can say, hmm, I've been to this crappy dance before. The guys are one one wall, the girls on the other, the playlist is built off Celine Dione, and the punch bowl isn't spiked. It doesn't take much to know that magic ain't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, ApacheTrout said: One can look around and see things as the product of teleconnections, the MJO, heights in AK, tensions among operational members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, et al.... and describe things as they've happened, and accurately see what's coming tomorrow, the day after, and then some. Others can say, hmm, I've been to this crappy dance before. The guys are one wall, the girls on the other, the playlist is built off Celine Dione, and the punch bowl isn't spiked. Nope ...you are still basing an outlook less upon objective reasoning with this... Nice metaphors though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 You're right, this is not objective reasoning. I've said as much. I'm not at the slightest risk of earning a red-tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 19 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said: You're right, this is not objective reasoning. I've said as much. I'm not at the slightest risk of earning a red-tag. Heh, it's all good - it's fun too. I mean I admit to being sardonic as a dark lord sometimes when the mood strikes just right - those intervals are prooobably not the most lucid either I do it for commiseration's sake. It's fun to be creative with dialogue that really hones into it all. Dreary comedy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 The 12z GFS says congrats Wisconsin for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 This winter is Scott Baio approved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 http://www.springtrainingcountdown.com/#sthash.GWoZ2Kt6.dpbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 We are at least to mid February now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 This is one of the worst winters that I can recall, so far.....just the quintessentially optimal blend of cold interludes, cutters and trivial events, with some NNE/se MA centric times interspersed. I'd take last year, or 2012 in a heart beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Mark down January 31st as the day Ray officially melted down in 2016-2017 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is one of the worst winters that I can recall, so far.....just the quintessentially optimal blend of cold interludes, cutters and trivial events, with some NNE/se MA centric times interspersed. I'd take last year, or 2012 in a heart beat. What do you typically average per year? I assume you are below like I am. I'm only at 21.50" so far, which I believe is below average for this point in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Mark down January 31st as the day Ray officially melted down in 2016-2017 winter. Its been coming for a while..the signs were there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 40 minutes ago, eyewall said: The 12z GFS says congrats Wisconsin for next week. Does that mean we should believe it? It showed a Monster coastal back on Friday for Superbowl/day after, how's that working out for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Mark down January 31st as the day Ray officially melted down in 2016-2017 winter. He just can't take nickel and dime winters which this was always supposed to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Mark down January 31st as the day Ray officially melted down in 2016-2017 winter. Over the next couple weeks i expect the numbers of melts to escalate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Does that mean we should believe it? It showed a Monster coastal back on Friday for Superbowl/day after, how's that working out for us? Once the models go cutter it usually stays that way. With the ridging in the East that builds during that period I see no reason to throw out the strong possibility at this point. As always it is a lot easier for something to go wrong than for everything to go right. There is a lot less room for a snow solution than one that gets you in or close to the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: Once the models go cutter it usually stays that way. With the ridging in the East that builds during that period I see no reason to throw out the strong possibility at this point. As always it is a lot easier for something to go wrong than for everything to go right. There is a lot less room for a snow solution than one that gets you in or close to the warm sector. Again, this is a silly notion. You can have a "cutter" and have the low be over ORD or ROC. Using that analogy, a model can go snowstorm if it passes over Cape Cod, or Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 it is what is, still 2 months to go where our totals can be increased. besides the resorts up north, relying on a wire to wire winter is not feasible. take the good and the bad, but when it is more bad than good...thats where the frustrations arise. I get it, just not how I do. Most of the region has gotten a bit too spoiled so it was only a matter of time before reality checked back in anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 That's too bad. Will just said on Sunday, that the Ensembles were looking quite nice. I guess they've gone bad. I'm going to enjoy my snow as well...and we'll see where next week and beyond go when we get closer to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Over the next couple weeks i expect the numbers of melts to escalate I'm going to enjoy my snow. Closing in on 75% of my seasonal average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I guess my question would be...what happened globally to have things so promising go to ending winter so quickly? I didn't see any huge changes over Alaska..What is forcing the pattern back to the last 2 weeks of January that we just had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I guess my question would be...what happened globally to have things so promising go to ending winter so quickly? I didn't see any huge changes over Alaska..What is forcing the pattern back to the last 2 weeks of January that we just had? Maybe the MJO going through 5&6 it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Again, this is a silly notion. You can have a "cutter" and have the low be over ORD or ROC. Using that analogy, a model can go snowstorm if it passes over Cape Cod, or Bermuda. I think that is what I was trying to say in a sense. The low can pass through ROC or farther west in the lakes and either way the result is rain. For snow to be onshore in New England there is a much narrower window of tracks a storm can take. Obviously if it goes to Bermuda you would be smoking cirrus in most cases down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm surprised your snow blower hasn't tried to eat you due to neglect. On the verge. Only used it twice so far, and the first time was really just half use. I won't be using it tonight after 2 or 3 inches fall. Not worth bothering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I guess my question would be...what happened globally to have things so promising go to ending winter so quickly? I didn't see any huge changes over Alaska..What is forcing the pattern back to the last 2 weeks of January that we just had? Just take a deep breath and get ready to fire up the lawn thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I guess my question would be...what happened globally to have things so promising go to ending winter so quickly? I didn't see any huge changes over Alaska..What is forcing the pattern back to the last 2 weeks of January that we just had? Ridging has never really locked in over the west coast providing us with a good cold source out of Canada. Along with the persistent SE ridge and your flirting with warmer systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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