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Model Mayhem IV!


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Back to back ratters in the favored spots?

I had a decent Dec, but January will end up worse than last year...lol. I think I'm around 30" right now? I'll have to update my sig when I get home although it'll need to be updated after the inverted flake tomorrow anyways. I deserve some regression from the late 00s/early 10s so in some strange, sadistic way back-to-back ratters just feels right. I'm due for a lousy Feb too as you can tell by my sig. My 10 year mean is well above the norm.

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Just now, Powderboy413 said:

I know the season is overall going to be garbage.  But if we got 1 big blizzard sometime in February or March I could live with that. 

Fwiw cohen thinks east cold/trough will return later month into march

HAHAHHAHAHAHAHA. I've been hearing that sh*t from that hack since December 2015.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Back to back ratters in the favored spots?

Could be it seems...I resist being pulled back in but also know a lot can happen in a short period, especially far interior.  Not only back to back ratters, but also I think 4 comparative disappointments in a row compared to other nearby areas.  No real long stretch of winter and snow in more than 5 years. 

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49 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

I know the season is overall going to be garbage.  But if we got 1 big blizzard sometime in February or March I could live with that. 

Fwiw cohen thinks east cold/trough will return later month into march

I agree with you....Just give us one big ONE at some point...and then Spring can come and we put this hum-drum winter to bed for good.   

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully we can get those 564 thicknesses on some of those runs. 

:D

This is what I was thinking, too..  I mean, if it's going to be that bad, let's get this thing to really be THAT  bad... Maybe we can fatten up buds in March again like we did back in 2012? 

But yeah, what a winter enthusiastic will-breaker those 00z runs were, pretty much across the board, huh - .. I have this image of slack jawed, stoned faced horror drawn upon the face of the innocent morning coffee sipper. Maybe one tear rolls.  It's hard to believe that was not done deliberately as some cruel Schadenfreude, eh?  Many Mets were "hopeful" (if that's the right word) for February... last night's 00z operational runs could not have been more diametrically opposed. We can't lose out the first 10 days of the shortest month in the annum to 55 F DP warm sectors and call that a win, no.  

Yeah, not sure I fully buy that though.  That's a pretty aggressive alteration for such a tremendously large amount of Hemispheric circulation mass.  That's like completely abolishing the previous dynamic, erasing that white board, and redrafting a whole new paradigm completely from scratch...in a single operational run. 

Yet, the GEFs derivatives don't support it, either.  They are steadfast in their regime change in the Pac N/A mode.  Interesting.  One thing I did notice over at CPC's public products, the MJO is suddenly turtle-heading in late Phase 3 or early 4, and then gaining strength through 5 ... into 6 and so forth. That's actually a warm signal?  I almost wonder if "too much" emphasis hit the operationals like a ton when that particular contribution might have crossed some threshold of registry ...Sort of like 'knee jerk' reaction, risking anthropomorphism.  

In any case, these next runs over the next 24 hours will be interesting to see if that has legs. 

As for those whose hopes and dreams were crushed and shattered like a poorly timed blithe joke by an unrepentant sociopath ...and your rollin' out post that throw hands and pack it in this, and designating crap that...  Just keep in mind, there are several winters in lore going back a couple hundred years worth where the lion's share of the given winters snow totals happened from March 1 to April 10 or so...  We realize that this particular subject matter has this incredible impenetrable wall of inconsolable lead when it comes to the radiation of hope ... but,

one, this needs some continuity;

two, the GEFs, albeit not quite as skillful as the EPS doesn't agree ( EPS?) ;

three, it is only January 31; 

four, folks seem to actually embrace the dystopia of this sort of thing as much as they dream of it's reflection. 

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Well, there is always our scintillating severe season to look forward to.  Maybe you and I can go two full years w/o a warning event?

I think it is highly probable. BTV reaches 2 years this next week essentially. BTV's departure is now -15.1 inches on the season to date. We have only had 8 inches more of snow this year than last year at this point (28.6" on the season thus far). 

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As for those whose hopes and dreams were crushed and shattered like a poorly timed blithe joke by an unrepentant sociopath ...and your rollin' out post that throw hands and pack it in this, and designating crap that...  Just keep in mind, there are several winters in lore going back a couple hundred years worth where the lion's share of the given winters snow totals happened from March 1 to April 10 or so...  We realize that this particular subject matter has this incredible impenetrable wall of inconsolable lead when it comes to the radiation of hope ... but,

I know that March and April can produce snow, and sometimes prodigiously, but here in the lower half of the Champlain Valley, the last three years have been nearly zilch

March and April 2014: 4.3 inches, 2.0 inches
March and April 2015: 0, 1.7 inches
March and April 2016: 0.2 inches, 3.2 inches

I see no evidence that this year will be any different.  I'd like to be wrong.

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4 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

I know that March and April can produce snow, and sometimes prodigiously, but here in the lower half of the Champlain Valley, the last three years have been nearly zilch

March and April 2014: 4.3 inches, 2.0 inches
March and April 2015: 0, 1.7 inches
March and April 2016: 0.2 inches, 3.2 inches

I see no evidence that this year will be any different.  I'd like to be wrong.

Where would one be looking for such evidences for March 10 on January 31st - ... just curious

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6 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

Something that would indicate this year's pattern is different than cutters or suppression.  That's what I'd be looking for.

Heeeh, no - that bit of sophistry doesn't sound very convincing to those who choose an analytical approach to reality, and by pure proxy of the scientific method...are compelled to keep an open mind to possibilities. 

"Something" doesn't mean anything in logic (let's start there) because if you don't know what you are looking for (by use of 'something') how are you going to know when you've found it?  

Now...just it's okay my friend. Ur pissed off and annoyed that the pattern expectation we (might have) grown accustomed to believing was in route just got dashed and smoked.  I know the sensation - I'm not saying I'm above. But let's just call it what it is, 'I'm annoyed', nod in understanding, and move on... 

 

 

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