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Clipper Jan 31st 2017 discussion


WeatherFeen2000

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9 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said:

for a lot of people this is going to bust bad in a positive way.

Models have the steady snow lifting up into SNE after this initial burst for the most part, and for downsloping to kill off a lot of the rest down here. We just have to watch the radar and see what happens. 

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A light coating here already on all surfaces. The radar still looks really good over Central PA so I think we're going to be in it for awhile. I know the radar over Eastern PA looks a bit spotty but a lot of that is because it's in a poor radar coverage area.

I'm in Mahwah as well currently.  Nice coating already.

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15 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said:

this thing has trended south and stronger then modeled,as i was trying to explain hours ago with mostly rebuttal responses. the best might be yet to come as the disturbance gets closer to the ocean.:lol:

Still disagree, I'll hold my ground and stand by that nobody is seeing more than 2" unless your in sullivan area

 

the "south" trend you keep talking about has absolutely nothing to do with the LP itself, which is right in line with guidance currently, the snow your seeing now as "more than expected" is well model and shown here on the latest HRRR21bq72u.jpg

 

as the LP out west begins to strengthen a tad and lift, his precip focuses mostly north as shown by the nam and other models for a while now, also shown on the HRRRwlxdll.jpg

 

And by 7pm most of the precip south of 84 has all but enddd and tapered off357iu88.jpg

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At least in PA the snow is south of where the 12z NAM has it. It's snowing hard down to almost the PA Turnpike while the NAM has it almost entirely north of I-80. State College was also just added to the WWA. The model also had nothing south of I-78 and less than 0.10 south of White Plains. It still looks like this is mostly an event for north of the city but interesting to see. 

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Just now, BxWeatherwatcher said:

 

i just read it bro and yeah i see your point. the only wildcard is where the bands keep setting up as of right now ..we are it..

There is no bands lol.... we're talking about a 1-2" storm here... I feel like I'm In the weenie twilight zone, your talking like some deform band is gonna set in and dump, and where it sets is up In The air

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