Brasiluvsnow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Timing of this event tomorrow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: it's generally been dry. Particular on weak events. It does okay on QPF for stronger systems It has been, the nam and gfs do better in small events. Unfortunately we have not had any major events so far this year, but I did notice in recent years the euro is good with the large events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Nams a bit drier this run... 1-2" generally not much changes for metro, but NW burbs see a bit less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Hi res looks good for the burbs 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Through 21Z if you look at the 12Z models all of them were too slow and too far north with the clipper through 9 hours across the upper Midwest. The euro was the best and was the only that had any Chicago snow this early or any snow that far into Illinois. It was definitely too dry though over southern WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 RGEM continues to be weak and south, keeping "heavier" precip to NYC proper edit: RGEM is ugly... dusting, mayyybe 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 That band band through CNJ is not from tomorrow evenings clipper either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Uptown has us interior folks at a general 2-3" snowfall. Just below advisory levels for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, hudsonvalley21 said: Uptown has us interior folks at a general 2-3" snowfall. Just below advisory levels for us. I'd say that's a decent call, wouldn't expect much more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'd say that's a decent call, wouldn't expect much more Just enough to mess up the afternoon commute tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 We have had a couple of events over produce this month. In no way shape or form is this anything but a minor event but someone can eek out 2". It would be nice to put a couple more inches on the board for January making it that much more anomalous with warm temps and above average snow (some stations) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Clippers pretty north Connecticut Rhode Island do well on nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, swamplover56 said: Clippers pretty north Connecticut Rhode Island do well on nam RGEM continues to be south of NAM. 0z RGEM says I get close to 1 inch here while NAM says nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 It's rare for the RGEM to go down in flames this badly. But the GFS and NAM are about in as sharp disagreement with it inside 24 hours as I've ever seen the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 0z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 RGEM still south of the NAM at 06z. Looking at radar looks like the RGEM may be right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I'm not sure what everyone's referring to with this drastic difference in RGEM and other guidance... RGEM NAM nam Nam has a slightly better consolidated precip swath to the north of NYC, RGEM has the same intensity to the north of NYC, just not as wide spread, speaking about NYC southward... yea RGEM is more south, but we're talking about the dusting to 1" line here people, not 4-6" lol....consolidated totals (1-3) will be from NYC points N+W, don't count on the RGEM dusting line to oust the nam, and if it does, it's just a dusting... not a major model fail lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 well our clipper is still looking quite sprite this morning,the radar is looking real gd for n.y.c north actually. this thing is def south a bit going by the radar and satellite,and my guess is that the best forcing might be in our neck of the woods later on since the stronger confluence won't let it get too far north.. i'm going aggressive by calling for 2-4 inches across the city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: well our clipper is still looking quite sprite this morning,the radar is looking real gd for n.y.c north actually. this thing is def south a bit going by the radar and satellite,and my guess is that the best forcing might be in our neck of the woods later on. i'm going aggressive by calling for 2-4 inches across the city.. I think we'll be lucky to see an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I think we'll be lucky to see an inch i dunno man.it clearly will get us and it's pretty strong for a clipper a.t.m. also some of those bands are still developing so we really don't know who gets what yet. but i'm going aggressive here lol..the only thing to really watch is the mixing line if it even gets here. it's 24/13 here in the bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: i dunno man.it clearly will get us and it's pretty strong for a clipper a.t.m. also some of those bands are still developing so we really don't know who gets what yet. but i'm going aggressive here lol.. Rap/Nam/HRRR/RGEM all agree... nobody is seeing 4", let along NYC south, HRRR AND RAP agree with Nam, albeit slightly weaker... dusting to 1" for nyc metro, 1-2" isolated maybe 3 in higher elevations of Sullivan county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 19/15 with some clouds to my west. I'm not expecting more than a dusting, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Rap/Nam/HRRR/RGEM all agree... nobody is seeing 4", let along NYC south, HRRR AND RAP agree with Nam, albeit slightly weaker... dusting to 1" for nyc metro, 1-2" isolated maybe 3 in higher elevations of Sullivan county somebody will in the higher elevations of course,it is going to be high ratio snow as well so i wouldn't be so sure of no high end 4 amounts. esp where the gd rates fall. alot of pessimistic people on here today lol..it's still winter folks,i'll take a inch but i'm wishing for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 look at it start building,some of those bands are going to be strong b.t.w. don't doubt the power of short waves, esp exiting the coast later on. also one can notice the forcing going on because the northern movement is very slow and the precip shield is expanding south.the confluence is strong with this one my friends,regardless of what models say.. http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 17 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: look at it start building,some of those bands are going to be strong b.t.w. don't doubt the power of short waves, esp exiting the coast later on. also one can notice the forcing going on because the northern movement is very slow and the precip shield is expanding south.the confluence is strong with this one my friends,regardless of what models say.. http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx You do this every storm, "the radar is exploding!", "it's bombing out!". Please stop. It's a dusting/coating to an inch. All the models this morning have this as a non event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You do this every storm, "the radar is exploding!", "it's bombing out!". Please stop. It's a dusting/coating to an inch. All the models this morning have this as a non event now. got cha bud. i will let weather play out. model hugging can't tell me what i obviously am seeing as of the moment as it's a nowcasting event b.t.w. if the current radar looks like a dusting then i'll give you that,but it doesn't!. i'll be back later when it's actually snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Despite what the radar might imply, the clippers that tend to overperform usually dig a lot more than this one is forecast to do. IMO, it still looks reasonable that NYC/Nassau County will see generally 1/2"-1" snow (mainly on grassy surfaces), outside the City in northeastern NJ/southern Westchester County/southern Fairfield CountySuffolk County 1"-2", and north of there 2"-3" (also easternmost Suffolk County). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 40 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: got cha bud. i will let weather play out. model hugging can't tell me what i obviously am seeing as of the moment as it's a nowcasting event b.t.w. if the current radar looks like a dusting then i'll give you that,but it doesn't!. i'll be back later when it's actually snowing. The clipper will tend to dry out as it moves over mountainous terrain. Therefore, what you see now will be more shredded when it arrives. And please stop saying that every storm is a "nowcast event." It's not. The models get more accurate closer in, not less accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 WWA in affect here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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