nw baltimore wx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: It ain't right yet. Winchester has never been shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Temps at DCA at Midnight. 4k NAM - 36 NAM - 34 RAP - 33 HRRR - 34 Of course these are partly a function of whether the model is showing it precipitating. I agree the light stuff might not do too much damage. But I think any moderate band after midnight, should get most of us to 32 or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's pretty cold aloft and there will be decent lift around. Prob se going by consensus. I don't think snow growth will be an issue but I agree with accums. This isn't a max efficiency setup. Anything lost early will take dents out of already meager precip for most. Still several hours left for you to steal the max stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Rgem has dc/i95 west below freezing by 10pm before the good precip arrives. We'll see how that goes after sunset. Beat me to it. At 3pm, it was still 31 @ Morgantown, WV and the RGEM says it will be 30 around here by 10pm. I doubt that seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It ain't right yet. Oh I agree. I just thought it was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Beat me to it. At 3pm, it was still 31 @ Morgantown, WV and the RGEM says it will be around here by 10pm. I doubt that seriously. HRRR has you at 34 at 10 pm. I agree with you about temp issues in the light stuff. But all the models have us dropping pretty quickly after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: Still several hours left for you to steal the max stripe. I'm not feeling cocky this year. Like I said earlier, my yard is in the minimus vortex. Ches Beach and St Mary's Co have the hot hand. That's where my money is on for a jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Frankly the RGEM has been super weenied up this year. Its been doing quite poorly in the short range. I trust the HRRR a lot more then I used to after its performance so far, and its looking pretty rough for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 (Unfortunately) leaving McHenry to head back to Arlington. Trying to bring the mojo home with me to the D.C. crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 HRRR/RAP are pretty much on the same page now. The main body of precip arrives in DC around midnight and exits around 5 am. So timing is ideal given BL issues, but rates/liquid will be an issue. Hopefully we get a nice burst somewhere in there - enough to make it pretty on the grass. Expectations are so low, we're kind of in a good situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Browsing through Pivotal and decided to check the Kuchera Ratios, which we seem to only dig out when we are desperate. Flipped them on and off for the 12k 18z NAM, it seems verbatim Kuchera ratio would hurt us, goes from 2"-ish at DCA to 1"-ish. Good thing they are never right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 18Z GFS is better for DC than 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 precip by frame 24 hr qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 At least the 18z gfs keeps the max through dc and east with peripheral areas (like my yard. Lol) doing well enough for an acceptable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Not sure if we talked about 18z GFS yet but its good for 1-2 for the metro and it actually has a trailing band Monday afternoon, think that has showed up on some other guidance too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: At least the 18z gfs keeps the max through dc and east with peripheral areas (like my yard. Lol) doing well enough for an acceptable event. Mr. IMBY . My yard sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not sure if we talked about 18z GFS yet but its good for 1-2 for the metro and it actually has a trailing band Monday afternoon, think that has showed up on some other guidance too. lwx technical discussion hinted at the Monday afternoon possibility too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: Mr. IMBY . My yard sucks. N. MD is a snow magnet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I'm kinda sick of models on this one. I'm ready to get down with radar tracking and associated hallucinations and stuff. Im sure I'll be up plenty late due to this really bizarre hobby that more than 99% of normal adults can't even comprehend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm kinda sick of models on this one. I'm ready to get down with radar tracking and associated hallucinations and stuff. Im sure I'll be up plenty late due to this really bizarre hobby that more than 99% of normal adults can't even comprehend. includes us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Hopefully things pop later on and a nice squiggly oval encompasses my yard along with a meso disco talking about 1-2"hr + tssn and things like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Is any of that precip on radar reaching the ground down to south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm kinda sick of models on this one. I'm ready to get down with radar tracking and associated hallucinations and stuff. Im sure I'll be up plenty late due to this really bizarre hobby that more than 99% of normal adults can't even comprehend. I think I'll stay up for Euro, and then hit the sack unless there is some death band over us or imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Is any of that precip on radar reaching the ground down to south? Snowing at big meadows along skyline. https://www.nps.gov/shen/learn/photosmultimedia/bm_webcam.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Snowing at big meadows along skyline. https://www.nps.gov/customcf/webcam/dsp_webcam_image.cfm?webCam=56868082BFC4C0304BC42AC98309AE31419DBF398CABCEAD96A201D7AA0F8C479DF9C899A6CACB4D988B4252D0D09D8B80&thumbnail=56868082BFC4C0304BC42AC98309AE31419DBF398CABCEAD96A201D7AA0F8C479DF9C899A6CFC34FD4C14055C894879C&refreshRate=30&title=7C9B93D2819B8E7B53C42E&width=1024&height=576&parkID=shen&altText=7C9B93D2819B8E7B53C42EC7BA1CBF7C479FE93BDBA8DEA19AEF3083AB03C97FDBE8D78E9689DB3CC99D030094DE9B948851B05D505CFF898652A7D0F947B5998906999393B88EC6929DCAA69697869517BE98BD9FDEE9AF9AA8A9A47082AE9D&description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ow I'd like an explanation of why that link contains 5000 characters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 my rain/precip alarm mobile app just buzzed at me. Maybe flurries/sprinkles soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Now I'd like an explanation of why that link contains 5000 characters. Lol- I edited it. Too quick with the copy paste from my phone. But you've preserved it forever in the quote box. Your problem now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 RAP just ticked north. I'm close enough with this one that while I wouldn't be surprised to see nothing more than some snow TV, it is keeping me interested. We've had our fair share of overperforming clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- I edited it. Too quick with the copy paste from my phone. But you've preserved it forever in the quote box. Your problem now. No, the link is obviously real. What gives with all that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Snowing at big meadows along skyline. https://www.nps.gov/shen/learn/photosmultimedia/bm_webcam.htm Yes it is. All we can really do now is watch the radar and wait I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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