NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 09z HRRRx is aggressive also. Nice band of > 0.50" qpf south of DC. Yeah, little south is looking like the place to be. I still do remember fondly the one time we managed to jackpot vs. everyone else was a surprise clipper that marked the start of the season being saved... sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, little south is looking like the place to be. I still do remember fondly the one time we managed to jackpot vs. everyone else was a surprise clipper that marked the start of the season being saved... sound familiar? Yes. Agree. Where the hell is Jeb. Could use some of his analysis. Maybe a PWC/FFX/ARL deathband...not common but very fun when done properly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 This has been a "south and east" winter, so no reason to believe otherwise until proven otherwise imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Cape and I were the first to talk about this with any seriousness yesterday morning while the rest of you were sleeping so it only seems fair that the band should set up through northern Baltimore and the central Delmarva. But I'd trade it for a band through HoCo to get a delay in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 We all know these clippers trend north so it wouldn't surprise me to have this band edge towards DC proper. Any chance for thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 12z 4km NAM is a bit ugly. Band isn't as impressive and there is nothing DC and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 These things come on fast...Temps during max precipitation is my concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: 12z 4km NAM is a bit ugly. Band isn't as impressive and there is nothing DC and north. Yeah I'm ignoring it for now. Although if it shifted 20 miles north I'd accept it as reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Cape and I were the first to talk about this with any seriousness yesterday morning while the rest of you were sleeping so it only seems fair that the band should set up through northern Baltimore and the central Delmarva. But I'd trade it for a band through HoCo to get a delay in the morning. It always sets up there. This thing could end up in CHS and MD will still fill in blue on the radar. and then psu jackpots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 12 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Cape and I were the first to talk about this with any seriousness yesterday morning while the rest of you were sleeping so it only seems fair that the band should set up through northern Baltimore and the central Delmarva. But I'd trade it for a band through HoCo to get a delay in the morning. As long as I'm in on the action, I support this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Hrrr has had the hot hand the last few precip events. Wherever it shows the precip max on the late aft/early evening runs is most likely the place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Wish we could see the 3k...that thing seems stuck once again as if the world ended hour 11 last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Someone asked about the potential for thunder. It's a good question. Below is a forecast sounding for ADW. There is a hint of a unstable layer just below 700mb. I'd nenver have the cojones to mention the possibility in a forecast but it dows leave me interested as ADW is a little north of the NAM best snow stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Rgem definitely improved. Dca bullseye with .4+/- qpf and *potentially* 2-3". 2" for most of the 95 crew. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Rgem definitely improved. Dca bullseye with .3+/- qpf and *potentially* 2-3". 2" for most of the 95 crew. Good run. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017012912&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=297 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Rgem definitely improved. Dca bullseye with .3+/- qpf and *potentially* 2-3". 2" for most of the 95 crew. Good run. I'm out of this one but I'm really really rooting you guys on. If for nothing else then to stop having to read the "told you so it's not gonna snow" posts after every bad op run. But also because you deserve some snow. Especially you. Good luck tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm out of this one but I'm really really rooting you guys on. If for nothing else then to stop having to read the "told you so it's not gonna snow" posts after every bad op run. But also because you deserve some snow. Especially you. Good luck tonight. I've been pretty much skipped over with everything. Not that I've missed much. Lol. But my yard seems to be in the minimus vortex. If I end up middle of the road for whatever happens I'll be totally happy. The best part about mentally downgrading winter to a dud makes it really easy to not get worked up about anything. 1" would be YUUUGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 GFS 0.5 inches of snow for D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Gfs doing me no favors. Lol. I'll stick with the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: GFS 0.5 inches of snow for D.C. That sounds pretty crappy. But if that's it then ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 It's does appear to keep going to about noon on the GFS. I think. These things are never easy to pinpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 FWIW... GGEM snow map for the weenies out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 So far, looks like HRRR is favoring areas SE of DC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Snow tv setup. Low 40s right now. Not ideal but not terrible. Definitely gonna waste some qpf but at least we may see something. I want to work from home tomorrow so I'm rooting for this one. edit: 37 degrees now. Not a bad pre snow airmass but gonna need rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Brine on the roads up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 HRRR has an intense lil' 3-5" band going through Stafford county. DC is just on the edge, probably sees a dusting with temperatures 32-33. Woodbridge maybe 2". Move that band north a bit, and we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 12z UKIE looks good for D.C., maybe 0.3" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 So NW of DC is screw zone this go around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Latest HRRR is pretty bad for DC and north. Nice little event south of DC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just want a nice little snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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