BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 2m temps never go below 32 for most of us... kind of disappointing. At least it's dark. That should help some. 34 with unknown precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4K temps are better but precip is worse. Gonna be walking a fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I wouldn't be too discouraged. It's still 24+ hours away. Small events see big changes sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Sterling AFD: .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The upper-level trough will remain overhead through Monday before ridging finally builds in Monday night. Most of Sunday should turn out dry and seasonably chilly since the area will be in between shortwaves. Max temps will range from the 20s in the mountains to the middle 40s near Washington and Baltimore. A potent shortwave will rotate around the trough...passing through the area Sunday night. The upper-level trough overhead will shift from a positive tilt to a shifts from a positive tilt toward a neutral tilt in response to this energy...and you can see reflection of this system down to the surface in the form of an inverted trough and weak surface low. Guidance has begun to converge on a solution that brings a period of light snow Sunday night...but perhaps it will be a bit earlier than previously expected. Tweaked the forecast to have the most likely period of snow to be later Sunday evening into the overnight hours. Subsidence behind the shortwave likely will cause precipitation to diminish in coverage toward the morning rush on Monday. However...slippery roads are possible through the morning rush since temperatures will be below freezing. The upper-level trough will begin to shift east Monday and a northwest flow behind the departing area of low pressure will bring colder conditions. Scattered snow showers are possible due to instability and shortwave energy associated with the upper- level trough. Although coverage appears that it will be scattered...some areas may get another coating of snow during this time. Max temps will be in the mid to upper 30s across most locations...so pavement temperatures should rise above freezing late Monday morning. High pressure will build overhead Monday night. Dry and seasonably cold conditions are expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I know I should fret temps but with good 850s I am not. If we were right at 0 I would fret more...if it were high noon I would even more. Should get a coating I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 RGEM is colder with temps falling into the upper 20s. Precip bullseye is south of D.C. towards EZF. 1" DC 2" for Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Hey guys I have to be at IAD on Monday at 6am...will I be OK? Thanks in advance I'll hang up and listen to your answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Hey guys I have to be at IAD on Monday at 6am...will I be OK? Thanks in advance I'll hang up and listen to your answer You will be fine.... the roads will be wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah. A bit better than 18z verbatim. I'd sign now. GFS and RGEM double my season total with this clipper. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 00z UKIE very tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: 00z UKIE very tasty Yoda in the house. Woot woot. Bring it home sir. Just once this season I want you to say D.C. Crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z UKIE very tasty Yes, DCA is in the 5 to 7.5 mm field... and you can see a small green area just south of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 20 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes, DCA is in the 5 to 7.5 mm field... and you can see a small green area just south of DC Jebman territory. He'll be all over it. Hopefully temps are favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 lol UKMET meteogram is 2-3" of snow verbatim for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Euro favors east of 95 and eastern shore with 1-3. The mini maxes the models are spitting out are pretty interesting. Enhanced lift and burst nature of the precip has consensus but there likely won't be a lot of winners. My yard doesn't usually do well with this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Southern MoCo bulls-eye calling it now gonna get that 1-3" babaaaayyyy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 The 06Z 12K NAM favors 2 stripes of heavier precip. One north of the cities and one just south of the cities. Has also become more aggressive with it's snow fall maps with 2+ within these strips until they converge on the northern eastern shore, DE and New Jersey where it spits out 6-9 inch totals. The higher resolution models, 4K Nam, 10 K RGEM and the 2.5 HRDPS all show a single strip just south of DC running towards southern Jersey with 2+ totals. The higher resolution models are probably more realistic in the snowfall totals and it remains to be seen if they are correct with the single strip of max precip or the lower resolution Nam with its idea of 2 strips. Just thought I would throw this in. First look at the snowfall map with the HRDPS and this is what greeted me. Threw me for a loop for a second. Needless to say it is not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Whoever gets that band wins. Snowtv and a dusting for the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 A showmethesnow noted, literally all of the mesoscale models and the globals show a stripe of snow in the mid-atlantic. All of the models show the snow falling between 00z tonight and 12z tomorrow. Most max out around 3 inches but a few (NAM) are generous with 4+. The 00z/06z runs broadly concentrate the axis of heavier accumulation on a N/E angle, stretching from Fredericksburg-ish to South Jersey - coastal plain jackpot somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 @wxmvpete on Twitter is giving a good run done of the factors in tonight's snow event and why some narrow band is going to be jackpotville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 This one is mine. I called dibs last week. Best thing about clippers is there is never any question as to p-type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Best case weenie scenario Look at that. Jebman for the win. He'll be walking naked through the streets. But my expert analysis says that 6 inch total will be just NW of there in the Nkesville, Bristow, Gainesville area. It's pure science. And wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Definitely potential for a surprise WTF band near DC. Very cold aloft with some instability combined with decent frontogenesis. Strong s/w helping with forcing...could very well be in DC proper, but diagnosing the exact location of the band will be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Anyone feeling a moco/hoco desthband like I am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Nam sim radar looking good so far. We're due for a surprise that breaks in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely potential for a surprise WTF band near DC. Very cold aloft with some instability combined with decent frontogenesis. Strong s/w helping with forcing...could very well be in DC proper, but diagnosing the exact location of the band will be difficult. Our buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 The 09z HRRRx is aggressive also. Nice band of > 0.50" qpf south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely potential for a surprise WTF band near DC. Very cold aloft with some instability combined with decent frontogenesis. Strong s/w helping with forcing...could very well be in DC proper, but diagnosing the exact location of the band will be difficult. Bazinga! It will be hard to sleep tonight. If you like looking at the tail end of the HRRRRRRRR, it suggests that snow won't really get here to after 12AM, along with most of the other models. Who needs to get to work on time tomorrow anyway?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Anyone feeling a moco/hoco desthband like I am? I like how you think. I'm in for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Snow-wise, this has that last minute upside potential feeling like 2/14/15 had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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