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Potential light snow 1/29 overnight to 1/30 thread


North Balti Zen

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Just now, NovaTarHeel said:

Down to 35 here in Fairfax.  Some pretty big flax falling.  Falling straight down and hard.  Pretty cool sight.  Close to being my best event already.

Have you been watching your temp? Did this yellow blob destroy it?

I'm hoping this cools us down good, you being at 35 means the HRRR is initializing about 3-4 degrees behind.

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Have you been watching your temp? Did this yellow blob destroy it?

I'm hoping this cools us down good, you being at 35 means the HRRR is initializing about 3-4 degrees behind.

Yeah, when I posted a while ago that it was raining I was at 38, now at 35.  About a 3 degree drop in 30 min. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The next 4 runs of the hrrr should give us a good handle on the good overnight bands. Trends have been ok the last couple runs. Keep moving evert hung north please. Lol

Did one of you shoot iodide into Virginia's atmosphere at one point?

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The next 4 runs of the hrrr should give us a good handle on the good overnight bands. Trends have been ok the last couple runs. Keep moving evert hung north please. Lol

Last four have kept moving the snow northward, but also generally dried things out.  So, perhaps better for you and I, but worse for folks S/E of DC.  

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
629 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2017


VAZ038>040-050-051-507-300730-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.170130T0300Z-170130T1200Z/
GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE-
629 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM
  THIS EVENING. THE STEADIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 11 PM AND
  4 AM. SNOW WILL END BY 6 AM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE MAINLY WET THIS EVENING WITH
  TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME
  SLIPPERY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR OR
  SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
629 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2017


DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-504-VAZ052>056-502-300730-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.170130T0300Z-170130T1200Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-
ST. MARYS-CALVERT-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
629 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO 1 INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 66 IN
  VIRGINIA AND NORTH OF US ROUTE 50 IN MARYLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
  EXPECTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 66 IN VIRGINIA AND SOUTH OF US
  ROUTE 50 IN MARYLAND.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN 8 AND 11 PM THIS
  EVENING. THE STEADIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM.
  SNOW WILL END BY 6 AM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE MAINLY WET THIS EVENING WITH
  TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME
  SLIPPERY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR OR
  SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST
  AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 30S THIS EVENING...FALLING INTO THE
  UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
658 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass through the area tonight and
high pressure will return by Monday night. Low pressure will pass
by to the north Tuesday and a cold front will pass through
Wednesday. High pressure will return for late in the week. morning
and a cold front will move through our area late in the day. High
pressure builds toward the area during the middle and latter part
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Longwave upper-level trough will remain overhead through tonight.
A jetmax rotating around the trough had moved into the area this
afternoon and evening and some light rain/snow has been observed
with this. Little to no snow accumulation is expected as
temperatures are still above freezing.

A more potent upper level vort and developing surface wave is
located across West Virginia this evening and will push across the
region overnight. This will bring a steadier period of snow to the
region, especially south of I-66 in Virginia and US 50 in
Maryland. The heaviest and highest threat of accumulating snow
will occur in a mesoscale band just north of the surface feature
where low level convergence is the greatest. Latest guidance
remains in general agreement on a solution that has the highest
accumulations across the Virginia Piedmont south of Interstate 66
into southern and central Maryland south of US 50. Across these
areas...amounts from 1 to 2 inches are likely. Elsewhere...precipitation
amounts will be lighter but it will also be a bit colder.
Therefore...a coating up to an inch is likely. For locations
closer to the Mason-Dixon line, there may be no accumulations
whatsoever.
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