Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 8:09 PM, yoda said: .1 to .25 I guess? Expand contours are 0.01, 0.10, 0.25, 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 12z RGEM and 12z WRF-NMM were decent for 2-3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 8:11 PM, Deck Pic said: contours are 0.01, 0.10, 0.25, 0.5 Expand Thanks, DCA is on the 0.25 line then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 It is is awesome that a thread I started will probably have no snow at my house. Good luck to D.C. and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 19z HRRR just did a nice jog north. Maybe this one is still a little tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 8:17 PM, Deck Pic said: 19z HRRR just did a nice jog north. Maybe this one is still a little tricky. Expand If that continues, we're hosed. halt the hrrrx trend before... https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2017012915/t3/1ref_t3sfc_f16.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 8:17 PM, Deck Pic said: 19z HRRR just did a nice jog north. Maybe this one is still a little tricky. Expand Yes it did. Not perfect but for once I like my location. Until it jogs further north next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 18z HRRR 19z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 8:21 PM, Deck Pic said: 19z HRRR Expand Minor version of 3/9/99 tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 8:23 PM, yoda said: Minor version of 3/9/99 tonight? Expand yes...and by minor about 3% of the snow that fell on 3/9/99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 8:17 PM, Deck Pic said: 19z HRRR just did a nice jog north. Maybe this one is still a little tricky. Expand If you toggle model runs, they're all coming north. But it's almost game time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 8:26 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: If you toggle model runs, they're all coming north. But it's almost game time now. Expand Not really for a lot of us when you're dealing with models that come out every hour. HRRR doesnt get the really good stuff in here until after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 8:26 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: If you toggle model runs, they're all coming north. But it's almost game time now. Expand Thanks for the reassurance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Nice little hop north. Be nice to see that stripe eventually centered on D.C. Up this way, five times zilch is still zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 8:27 PM, Deck Pic said: Not really for a lot of us when you're dealing with models that come out every hour. HRRR doesnt get the really good stuff in here until after midnight. Expand only the accumulating stuff after midnight, not a bad look out there on base ref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I don't see the SREF discussed much in these threads. Is there a reason? The means for the last four runs displayed here. Consensus for a half inch or more at DCA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 max p = imby edge http://www.weather.gov/images/lwx/winter/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Getting jealous of those WWAs for 2-4" east of the Bay. We need some thing bad in this hole we're in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 RGEM looks good for the same areas as 12z. Here, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 45/23. Waiting patiently for my snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 18z RGEM aggressive again... 2-3 inches DC and south and east... upper 20s by 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Idk how the boundary levels are going to drop that fast in light of the light, to moderate at best, precip rates. 42 @ Bwi aat 4pm. I think equating snow to qpf will be well below 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 9:10 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: RGEM looks good for the same areas as 12z. Here, not so much. Expand I would take the RGEM. Has me pretty much centered in the good band. The hi res meso models sure like further SE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 9:13 PM, yoda said: 18z RGEM aggressive again... 2-3 inches DC and south and east... upper 20s by 09z Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Rgem has dc/i95 west below freezing by 10pm before the good precip arrives. We'll see how that goes after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 20z HRRR sucks...:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 LOL. 20Z HRRR shuts Winchester out. Cutoff is the Frederick county, VA line. It will definitely go down like this. Snow to the west, south and east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 9:15 PM, mitchnick said: Idk how the boundary levels are going to drop that fast in light of the light, to moderate at best, precip rates. 42 @ Bwi aat 4pm. I think equating snow to qpf will be well below 10:1. Expand It's pretty cold aloft and there will be decent lift around. Prob se going by consensus. I don't think snow growth will be an issue but I agree with accums. This isn't a max efficiency setup. Anything lost early will take dents out of already meager precip for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 9:17 PM, clskinsfan said: LOL. 20Z HRRR shuts Winchester out. Cutoff is the Frederick county, VA line. It will definitely go down like this. Snow to the west, south and east of me. Expand It ain't right yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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