MD Snow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 3k for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 8:38 PM, gymengineer said: It's very banded/burst-y on the NAM. If that's the actual look, then it'll have to be in the really short range to nail down the locations that get hit the hardest. Once again, the 4K and 3K are further south than the 12K, but both have adjusted north since the 12Z run. Expand Yes, all 3 are moving the heavier precipitation north from the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 3k NAM is rather nuts - several inches for DC proper. Almost nothing for as close in as Rockville. 4k is also better than the 12k, 1-2 inches region wide. Details TBD - someone is getting at least an inch around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Chuckling at the 3K NAM-- turning this into a 3/84-type deal with 6-8" across the eastern suburbs in a heavy band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 8:39 PM, MD Snow said: 3k for the win! Expand Wow. That looks real nice indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 I predict the 18z RGEM is going to NAM us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Which of the NAMs had like 8" of snow for N Central MD during our chilly windy rain event earlier in the week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Mt Holly has updated the forecast here. Upped the pops and calling for 1-2" tomorrow night. I hate when they get bullish on these small scale events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 8:44 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Which of the NAMs had like 8" of snow for N Central MD during our chilly windy rain event earlier in the week? Expand 3k and 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 8:50 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Mt Holly has updated the forecast here. Upped the pops and calling for 1-2" tomorrow night. I hate when they get bullish on these small scale events. Expand I think 0.5-1.5" area wide is a decent bet given the trends we've seen and the slightly better vort pass for the sub-forum. Some spots will sneak over 2" because it always happens. Where will be determined at very short lead around HRRR time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Definitely not RGEM'd this run. Less then a half inch for most, exception being SE MD and DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 9:22 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Definitely not RGEM'd this run. Less then a half inch for most, exception being SE MD and DE. Expand Yeah its south with the "heavier" band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 I'm interested in the HRRR when we are in range...that one seems to be quite stingy with the snow but was pretty accurate if I recall last potential snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 18z GFS is fairly unimpressive lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 9:26 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah its south with the "heavier" band. Expand But if you toggle the 12z and 18z runs at 12z Monday you can see it has shifted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 9:49 PM, C.A.P.E. said: 18z GFS is fairly unimpressive lol. Expand It has much the same precip orientation as the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 9:50 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: It has much the same precip orientation as the Euro Expand Its all about the vort pass. Its pretty darn good. It is a tad further north at 18z, but probably just noise. As far as resolving the ultimate location of any meso banding, that is probably best left to the short range models. That is where the 1-2" potential will be. The low also deepens just off the coast but likely too late/progressive to have much affect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Everything is still showing a narrow max band that's been bouncing around north or south (18Z GFS headed the band south some). Going to be very low confidence for any given location until the banding forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 10:02 PM, gymengineer said: Everything is still showing a narrow max band that's been bouncing around north or south (18Z GFS headed south some). Going to be very low confidence for any given location until the banding forms. Expand The mesoscale models should be able to close in on the location a bit more in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 9:58 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Its all about the vort pass. Its pretty darn good. It is a tad further north at 18z, but probably just noise. As far as resolving the ultimate location of any meso banding, that is probably best left to the short range models. That is where the 1-2" potential will be. The low also deepens just off the coast but likely too late/progressive to have much affect. Expand I wonder how the mountain effect would affect us differently if the vort max dives south and then towards us from the southwest like on the 3km NAM versus northwest like most systems. Would the life-cycle of the vort max behave differently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 10:09 PM, BTRWx said: I wonder how the mountain effect would affect us differently if the vort max dives south and then towards us from the southwest like on the 3km NAM versus northwest like most systems. Would the life-cycle of the vort max behave differently? Expand You're not trying to lure me into a discussion of mountain torque, are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 10:15 PM, C.A.P.E. said: You're not trying to lure me into a discussion of mountain torque, are you? Expand Please do! It's not my strong point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 0z 12k NAM looking really good. Edit: hmmmm. It rains on DC for awhile actually, the surface temps are pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 2:12 AM, NorthArlington101 said: 0z 12k NAM looking really good. Edit: hmmmm. It rains on DC for awhile actually, the surface temps are pretty bad. Expand Wow. A lot better than I thought. Should be ok west of the fall line...850s are good but surface is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 2:12 AM, NorthArlington101 said: 0z 12k NAM looking really good. Edit: hmmmm. It rains on DC for awhile actually, the surface temps are pretty bad. Expand The SLP moves too close to us... therefore the surface Temps are bad... I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 2:18 AM, BristowWx said: Wow. A lot better than I thought. Should be ok west of the fall line...850s are good but surface is ugly Expand West of the fall line is a scary phrase when you live less then a mile off the fall line. Total precip is good for all though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 2:21 AM, NorthArlington101 said: West of the fall line is a scary phrase when you live less then a mile off the fall line. Total precip is good for all though. Expand I live about 20 miles. Snow tv for a while. Until the low gets east of us...but 850s are again real nice. Rates will matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Ops NAM nest (4 km) implies that when the precip is heavier, it would be snow, but it would be rain when it's lighter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 The band set up will be interesting. And unknown until kickoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2m temps never go below 32 for most of us... kind of disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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