February 2017 General Discussion

[csnavywx]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

A lot of the south central US is running 10-15 degrees above average at the halfway point of the month.  This map is going to look crazy at the end, though I'm not sure how much crazier it can get down there as the upcoming warm spell will tend to produce the greatest positive departures more in the Midwest.

Given the creeping drought setting in down here and an increasingly dry soil moisture value, I wouldn't be shocked to see a near-Morch level of departure by the end of the month in my neck of the woods. I'm already looking at 70-75 for days on end starting this weekend, which is about 25F above normal. Prelim has me at +7 on the month so far, so Morch's +14 not looking too far out of reach, given the forecast at this point.

 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

Given the creeping drought setting in down here and an increasingly dry soil moisture value, I wouldn't be shocked to see a near-Morch level of departure by the end of the month in my neck of the woods. I'm already looking at 70-75 for days on end starting this weekend, which is about 25F above normal. Prelim has me at +7 on the month so far, so Morch's +14 not looking too far out of reach, given the forecast at this point.

 

The record warmest February for St. Louis is 44.9F, which is an anomaly of +8.6 using 1981-2010 averages.  You are going to blow the doors off that even when factoring in the last few days of the month potentially dropping to near/below average.

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Given the creeping drought setting in down here and an increasingly dry soil moisture value, I wouldn't be shocked to see a near-Morch level of departure by the end of the month in my neck of the woods. I'm already looking at 70-75 for days on end starting this weekend, which is about 25F above normal. Prelim has me at +7 on the month so far, so Morch's +14 not looking too far out of reach, given the forecast at this point.

 

I wouldn't disregard Winter just yet. The EPO/GEFS both build back a -EPO which later retrogrades towards the Aleutians and becomes an Aleutian ridge, thus bringing in some more Arctic Air across the region and perhaps increasing our snowfall opportunities one last time before Spring.

How long it lasts? Thats hard to say but current indications would seem to support a cold start to March that should last through the first 5-10 days atleast. No chance of any SSW this month, but the vortex should weaken enough to allow some further displacement in March and perhaps a -AO/NAO? 

Any thoughts on that? 

[Stebo]

16 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I wouldn't disregard Winter just yet. The EPO/GEFS both build back a -EPO which later retrogrades towards the Aleutians and becomes an Aleutian ridge, thus bringing in some more Arctic Air across the region and perhaps increasing our snowfall opportunities one last time before Spring.

How long it lasts? Thats hard to say but current indications would seem to support a cold start to March that should last through the first 5-10 days atleast. No chance of any SSW this month, but the vortex should weaken enough to allow some further displacement in March and perhaps a -AO/NAO? 

Any thoughts on that? 

Considering his location, I think it wouldn't be hard to write winter off.

[Maxim]

57 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I wouldn't disregard Winter just yet. The EPO/GEFS both build back a -EPO which later retrogrades towards the Aleutians and becomes an Aleutian ridge, thus bringing in some more Arctic Air across the region and perhaps increasing our snowfall opportunities one last time before Spring.

How long it lasts? Thats hard to say but current indications would seem to support a cold start to March that should last through the first 5-10 days atleast. No chance of any SSW this month, but the vortex should weaken enough to allow some further displacement in March and perhaps a -AO/NAO? 

Any thoughts on that? 

Lol

[Hoosier]

Did some research and found that Chicago has only had 2 days in the month of February where the daily departure was +30 or higher, and they were both over 90 years ago.  2/22/1922 had a high/low of 68/52 for a departure of +30.1, and 2/8/1925 was 62/54 for a departure of +32.3.  

Given the averages for early next week, it's going to take highs in the upper 60s/lows in the lower 50s to pull off a +30.  Or if a high of 70 is reached, then a low just under 50 would work.  2 occurrences in over 140 years of records... it's rare for a reason so it won't be easy.

[csnavywx]

 

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I wouldn't disregard Winter just yet. The EPO/GEFS both build back a -EPO which later retrogrades towards the Aleutians and becomes an Aleutian ridge, thus bringing in some more Arctic Air across the region and perhaps increasing our snowfall opportunities one last time before Spring.

How long it lasts? Thats hard to say but current indications would seem to support a cold start to March that should last through the first 5-10 days atleast. No chance of any SSW this month, but the vortex should weaken enough to allow some further displacement in March and perhaps a -AO/NAO? 

Any thoughts on that? 

It's not over yet, but with 10 more days of prime snow-making time spent in blowtorch-land, that leaves me a whopping 2 weeks before climo starts kicking snow chances rapidly out of the door. The breakdown of the Pacific jet extension gives one last shot at the start of March. But we've been down this road a few times this winter and it's amounted to what ends up being transient cold air outbreaks because the block retrogrades into Asia or rolls over and crashes the party, leaving behind a GoA low and monster Pac jet to scour out whatever cold air outbreak manages to force its way in. Meanwhile the AO remains stubbornly positive -- something that is yet again forecast. Note that the 7-14 day forecasts have been too low with the AO by virtually all winter. You have a longer window, so you still have a good month after the torch.

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Did some research and found that Chicago has only had 2 days in the month of February where the daily departure was +30 or higher, and they were both over 90 years ago.  2/22/1922 had a high/low of 68/52 for a departure of +30.1, and 2/8/1925 was 62/54 for a departure of +32.3.  

Given the averages for early next week, it's going to take highs in the upper 60s/lows in the lower 50s to pull off a +30.  Or if a high of 70 is reached, then a low just under 50 would work.  2 occurrences in over 140 years of records... it's rare for a reason so it won't be easy.

GFS MOS has +27 in RFD on Tues, +27 at MDW on Mon and +27 in STL on Mon (gets me to a roasty 75 on Mon). Tue/Wed/Thur not looking like slouches either, especially with the southwesterly wind and high dewpoints (50-55F), so all three of those days have a good shot at doing it. Southeasterly wind component on Monday is a bit unusual for snapping records, but it's not coming out of a cold high, so I don't expect much impediment there as would usually be the case with a southeasterly wind. High cirrus could be an issue on Mon. The biggest issue on Tues would be precip and clouds (though this could hold overnight temps up). Wed/Thurs might end up being the best day if those two systems clear out of Dodge fast enough (and provided a lake breeze doesn't back through ORD).

[Jackstraw]

I'm gonna love me an early March big dog.  Looking through the binoculars into fantasy land might have a chance around the 10th +/- a few days.  
I haven't been this optimistic all winter.  
Or maybe I just have a cold season hangover. 
 Regardless, the post VD torch has set in.  This from KIND....

"Deterministic model agreement is good overall. They suggest
temperatures mostly 20-25 degrees above average. Even the
"coldest case" scenario has readings 10-15 degrees above average.
In the `warmest case" scenario they could hit 30 degrees above
average."

[nwohweather]

Unreal to see not only 60 degrees possible Saturday-Wednesday, but to have it with sun and little wind. Very impressive for mid February


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[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

I am actually going to go onto a limb and predict that at least one reporting station, most likely in the LSX and/or PAH CWA's, will hit at least 80 on Presidents' Day (Monday).

[cyclone77]

Euro up to 8 days of 60+ at MLI now.  If today overachieves as much as the HRRR is showing then we may add a 9th day on.  The fact that the HRRR is showing it so much warmer than the Euro had been showing for today is quite interesting.  If temps end up like what the HRRR is forecasting then we may have several days near or above 70.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Euro up to 8 days of 60+ at MLI now.  If today overachieves as much as the HRRR is showing then we may add a 9th day on.  The fact that the HRRR is showing it so much warmer than the Euro had been showing for today is quite interesting.  If temps end up like what the HRRR is forecasting then we may have several days near or above 70.

HRRR gets a little bonkers sometimes, but one thing to consider at this time of year is the lack of vegetation.  Would make you think temps could tend to overperform in general during this upcoming period, especially on days with plenty of sun.

[hawkeye_wx]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

If today overachieves as much as the HRRR is showing then we may add a 9th day on.

Clouds spilling down from the north should keep the area from hitting 60 today.  We are expecting low 50s here.  DVN just released an update about the clouds holding us back a bit.

[Chambana]

Temperatures forecasted greater than 60 degrees Friday-Wednesday. Since 1888 February has only been able to string together 5 days of >60 that was achieved in 1996 and 2000.

 

Also Monday 2/20 has the potential to tie the record set just last year, 70 degrees. 

[Chambana]

Light winds and clear skies last night gave CMI the privilege of being one of the coldest spots in Illinois this morning, dipped down to 23 degrees, so a little hill to climb today. 

 

Up to 37 degrees,  sun starting to peak through. 

[csnavywx]

Up to 61/26 already at noon with some thin cirrus. Let the streak begin.

[hawkeye_wx]

We've reached the upper 40s just north of the warm front, about where the HRRR had us at this point.  We had a few hours of sun, but thicker clouds are moving back in so low 50s should be the max.  Far northeast Iowa is still in the 30s and may be stuck there.  Today was always going to be the transition day.  Friday is when the real warmth begins.

[weatherbo]

23 currently, but 41 forecasted tomorrow.  Rarely do you see a 48hr snowfall forecast map in February like this.  just crazy.

[csnavywx]

Now 69/25, overperforming like crazy. +8F in last hour, +37 in last 6 hours. KSET went from 21 to 64 in 6 hours, 43F rise.

Red Flag warnings definitely warranted. Could even afford to expand it a bit.

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Now 69/25, overperforming like crazy. +8F in last hour, +37 in last 6 hours. KSET went from 21 to 64 in 6 hours, 43F rise.

Red Flag warnings definitely warranted. Could even afford to expand it a bit.

Wow.  The dry soil down there has to be helping.

[csnavywx]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wow.  The dry soil down there has to be helping.

Dry soil, dry/dead vegetation and decent sun angle. Topsoil is very dry for this time of year.

Edit: One of my silver maples decided to start shedding pollen today. Swollen red buds all over. Earliest I have ever seen. Usually that doesn't happen until the 2nd or 3rd week of March.

[Hoosier]

Just now, csnavywx said:

Dry soil, dry/dead vegetation and decent sun angle. Topsoil is very dry for this time of year.

You're only 10 degrees above where the 12z GFS 2m temps had you lol.  NAM also with large errors.  The MOS output was a little better but still underdone.

[csnavywx]

I think part of it also has to do with model dewpoints being too high. A good 8-15F too high.

[Hoosier]

Tomorrow's record high for Chicago is one of the older ones.

 

Friday...

The big story on Friday will be the near record or record breaking
warmth. Models are now all in agreement that warm front will clear
our area well to the north by Friday morning. Extreme warm for
February air mass at 850 mb and 925 mb will continue to be
advected eastward from the Plains as anomalous mid-upper ridge
builds northeastward over the Midwest. The height rises will work
to shunt the mid and high cloud cover that we`ve been dealing with
today off to the northeast, yielding full sunshine during peak
heating.

Relatively tight pressure gradient and good mixing up to
just under 900 mb will result in southwest winds gusting up to 20
mph, potentially higher during the afternoon. This should prevent
a lake breeze from sneaking onto the far northeast Illinois
shore. Dry conditions of late also should aid in preventing from a
faster dew point rise, which would then give another assist to
boundary layer warming. Regarding the progged 850 mb and 925 mb
temperatures tomorrow, they are basically off the charts for mid
February, near or above the daily max around this time of the
month for ILX and DVN. The guidanced progged thermal profiles are
well supported by the low-mid teens Celsius at 850/925 mb sampled
by 12z RAOBS from across Nebraska and Kansas that will be advected
into our area.

Taking all of the above into account, have increased forecast
high temperatures slightly from previous forecast to around 60/low
60s area wide. It`s possible that a few locations in far northern
Illinois come in just shy of 60. Would also not be surprised to
see a few locations in the far west and southwest CWA counties tag
the mid 60s even. The record highs for February 17th in Chicago
and Rockford are 60 (1880) and 59 (1981) respectively, and these
look to be in serious jeopardy.

Castro

[Chicago Storm]

Here's a list of high/low temp records for Chicago from tomorrow through Wednesday. Likely will see some of them broken...

17th: 60 (1880)/42 (1890)

18th: 62 (1981)/45 (1981)

19th: 65 (1930)/51 (1994)

20th: 64 (1930)/49 (1930)

21st: 67 (1930)/47 (1930)

22nd: 68 (1922)/52 (1930)

[Stebo]

10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Here's a list of high/low temp records for Chicago from tomorrow through Wednesday. Likely will see some of them broken...

17th: 60 (1880)/42 (1890)

18th: 62 (1981)/45 (1981)

19th: 65 (1930)/51 (1994)

20th: 64 (1930)/49 (1930)

21st: 67 (1930)/47 (1930)

22nd: 68 (1922)/52 (1930)

17th 18th 20th look pretty much like locks maybe 21st's low. The rest there is a chance but not as likely as those 4.

[Hoosier]

The longest streak of 60+ degree highs for Chicago in February is 4 days.  The current LOT temperature forecast would only have to go up by a couple degrees to break that streak, so that streak appears to be in jeopardy.

The longest 60+ degree streak in any month of meteorological winter is 5 days.

[WxMatt21]

Looks like the longest stretch of 50º+ temps in Fort Wayne during the month of February is 9. It was achieved twice, once in 1930 and again in 1954. I think we could get close, although late next week/early next week looks sharply colder. 

The longest stretch of 60º+ wx at KFWA in Feb is 7. Not impossible, which is noteworthy in and of itself!

[RCNYILWX]

The longest streak of 60+ degree highs for Chicago in February is 4 days.  The current LOT temperature forecast would only have to go up by a couple degrees to break that streak, so that streak appears to be in jeopardy.

The longest 60+ degree streak in any month of meteorological winter is 5 days.

I think tomorrow, Saturday and Monday are pretty safe bets to tag 60. Sunday is a wild card due to weak synoptic flow with sfc high overhead, could yield an early lake breeze onset, though a late enough passage would make 60 certainly doable.

The 50+ streak will depend on how that low out west evolves late week with respect to wind direction. Some of the models are showing pretty stout onshore synoptic flow late work week, which could keep highs in 40s even with air mass aloft still very warm. We look good for at least 6 days.