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February 2017 General Discussion


Hoosier

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17 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Wow, no end in sight. 8-14 day highest probs of above normal temps centered over 90% of the sub. Is it seriously possibly to flip to a cold wet miserable spring? 

 

EDIT: After I posted this mike ventrice tweeted that models are showing the breakdown of the PAC jet in the medium-long range.

 

487D622E-4786-40DF-9261-324DB16DAE1D.jpg

Anything is possible, but there's not a whole lot of evidence pointing toward a cold spring in the region at this point.

Can get cold periods though even if it's not the overall trend.  1930 and 2000 are a couple years that may be mentioned this coming week in terms of the February warmth... both of those had cold/snow later in March and/or April.

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7 hours ago, harrisale said:

These warms fronts tends to stall south of the lakes, making it a bit harder to get warmth into ON this early. Weekend still looking great though, some sun and highs near 50F.

Despite the anomalous warmth this Winter, YYZ has yet to record a high temperature at or above 50F since Dec 1st thru today. In comparison, by this time last year we had 11 days and 4 during 2011-12. So a warm winter, yes, but not as bad as last winter or 2011-12. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

MLI has had 1 streak of 60+ temps in February that lasted 7 days... in 1930. The second longest streak was a 5 day streak in 2000 (that would've been 8 days long but was interrupted by 1 day under 60).

Thanks for the info.  Really shows how rare it is to have such persistent warmth this time of year.

Temps overachieved here today. Made it to 50.

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33 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Thanks for the info.  Really shows how rare it is to have such persistent warmth this time of year.

Temps overachieved here today. Made it to 50.

Was thinking about how to put the upcoming period in context, and I would almost call it a February version of Morch, especially in areas like yours that don't come under lake influence. The max temps during Morch were very impressive, but the unprecedented duration is really what makes it stand out in the record books. Obviously the ceiling on warmth in February just isn't as high as the following month, so you can't make a direct comparison... for purposes of rarity, I suppose getting a stretch of around 7 days of 65+ degrees in February would have a similar return rate as getting a similarly long stretch of 80+ in March (at our latitudes).  Interesting to think about.

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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Was thinking about how to put the upcoming period in context, and I would almost call it a February version of Morch, especially in areas like yours that don't come under lake influence. The max temps during Morch were very impressive, but the unprecedented duration is really what makes it stand out in the record books. Obviously the ceiling on warmth in February just isn't as high as the following month, so you can't make a direct comparison... for purposes of rarity, I suppose getting a stretch of around 7 days of 65+ degrees in February would have a similar return rate as getting a similarly long stretch of 80+ in March (at our latitudes).  Interesting to think about.

 

Febtorchruary?  Might have to give it some kind of name if things continue to look the way they're looking.  Just noticed the new 12z EC backed off a little bit on the warmth along/north of I-80 after Monday though.  Maybe later runs will bump it back north.

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Thanks for the info.  Really shows how rare it is to have such persistent warmth this time of year.

Temps overachieved here today. Made it to 50.

Same here.

That was in spite of cirrostratus during peak heating too (although we had clear / partly cloudy skies during the early and late part of the day).

In addition to some positive feedback action from the relative lack of snow, part of it was downsloping and a part of it was also compressional heating from the PV moving through.

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4 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

i could of swore I just saw a flash of lightning outside , been snowing pretty heavy for the past hour, checked the lightning tracker but it didn't show nothing. 

When I checked the lightning detector, there were several strikes around Cadillac and Mount Pleasant.

So I figure there's a strong possibility what you saw was lightning as well.

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Woke up to several inches of fresh snow.  Depth is 27" this morning.  Peak depth this Winter still 30", 31" during the anemic El Nino of last year, and 54" the previous winter of '14-15.  Not sure how much snow will be left after this upcoming thaw.  Night time lows do look to fall to freezing or below during that timeframe, so that should help.  March/April will really have to bang to reach normal snowfall (which is around another 100").  Just don't see it happening.

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10 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

0z ECMWF has temps in the 60's from this Friday through next Friday for Chicago. Mon/Thur/Fri all near 70.

Perfection.

Chicago has hit 70 a total of 3 times in February.  Not going to get into the end of the week yet but as far as Monday, looks possible if clouds aren't a problem.  12z GFS has 925 mb temps around 14C on Monday.

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Winter/Spring snows will come in copious amounts to close out the season in the north lands.  Lame 4 weeks of snow for me in NW Wisconsin and I'm leaving for the city tomorrow.   I'll be on close watch and if my hunch is right I'll be back up here enjoying winter soon enough.

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A lot of the south central US is running 10-15 degrees above average at the halfway point of the month.  This map is going to look crazy at the end, though I'm not sure how much crazier it can get down there as the upcoming warm spell will tend to produce the greatest positive departures more in the Midwest.

MonthTDeptUS.png

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2 hours ago, UMB WX said:

Winter/Spring snows will come in copious amounts to close out the season in the north lands.  Lame 4 weeks of snow for me in NW Wisconsin and I'm leaving for the city tomorrow.   I'll be on close watch and if my hunch is right I'll be back up here enjoying winter soon enough.

Hope you are right! Not ready to see winter go just yet. It would end up being a long spring. April is about miserable this far north, imo. Last march/April 68" 

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