Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 12z GFS and 0z ECMWF with 50's/60's Friday-Wednesday. Even fairly close to 70 on Monday.Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GFS and 0z ECMWF with 50's/60's Friday-Wednesday. Even fairly close to 70 on Monday. Perfect. Seeing the climo biased MEX MOS popping a 58 for ORD next Monday is impressive (solid 20 degrees above climo) and gives an idea of the potential. Some concern for areas near the lake as the gradient looks weak on a couple of those days, which probably means they will get screwed at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 Did some digging and found that close to 1 in 4 Februaries has a 60+ degree high in Chicago, so that is not extremely unusual. What is more unusual is to string together multiple days in a row, as the last time there were back to back highs of 60+ was in 2000. The last time there were 3 or more days in a row was in 1976, and that was actually 4 days in a row (and that string in 1976 included the all-time February record high of 75). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 All time February record high in Madison is 64, seems more in reach than at other climate sites. Daily records are: Fri-61, Sat-57, Sun-60, Mon-57, Tue-60, Wed-60. So those will be something to watch, especially if temperatures trend toward the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 One of my local mets this morning had 60+ Friday through Monday. The latest Monday maps are looking exceptionally warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Met winter overall is going to finish very warm. No denying this winter has been eerily similar to 2011-2012. Not saying spring/summer/fall and the following winter will follow 2012 trend but at least this winter has been remarkably similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 20 degrees above the average at 44 this afternoon. Even with the wind, it feels great. This time tomorrow it will be snowing and blowing again... depth down to 24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, Chambana said: Met winter overall is going to finish very warm. No denying this winter has been eerily similar to 2011-2012. Not saying spring/summer/fall and the following winter will follow 2012 trend but at least this winter has been remarkably similar. There's been some differences in the progression (not surprising since no two winters are exactly alike) but the end results may be pretty similar. I'd say the big difference between 2011-12 and this winter is that 2011-12 was much more torchy in the northern Plains. The ENSO progression in 2011-2012 was very similar to what we are seeing this year, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Two days ago Childress TX was almost 100 degrees. Right now it's the middle of the afternoon, and it's 37 degrees with moderate rain. Ouch lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 16 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Thanks. Im no expert but ive been measuring snow for 22 years so im pretty good at eyeballing/guestimating depth. Downtown gaylord resembled Detroit 3 years ago this time of year, and that's when we had 20 or so on the ground. No doubt it's deeper outside the city. One thing you notice when driving up north, the snow depth noticeably varies constantly. I don't care what the winter, the gaylord region is always the deepest depth in lower MI. And why on earth would anyone want to live in a non snowbelt part of the UP? LOL that would be torture. Yea, Gaylord area is usually always one if not the most snowfall on average per year. Downtown area does very well, but about 10-15 miles SW gets probably 30% more a year than the airport/downtown areas. I used to live over near old 27 near otsego lake and did pretty well but my new house location consistently receives more snow in the past 2 years living at my new location. With that being said I still would rather be in Bo or Will's location regarding snow but am happy where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: There's been some differences in the progression (not surprising since no two winters are exactly alike) but the end results may be pretty similar. I'd say the big difference between 2011-12 and this winter is that 2011-12 was much more torchy in the northern Plains. The ENSO progression in 2011-2012 was very similar to what we are seeing this year, so far. This winter here has been colder and snowier than 2011-12. Of all the heavy snow we have had the last 15 years, 2011-12 was the one TRUE clunker. I measured 25.5" imby, lowest in my now 22 years of measuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Just did a brutal rugged hike 40 minutes east of Marquette. Mild here today in the 40s. Snow in the woods still fresh. Snow in the city gets just as dirty as at home lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: This winter here has been colder and snowier than 2011-12. Of all the heavy snow we have had the last 15 years, 2011-12 was the one TRUE clunker. I measured 25.5" imby, lowest in my now 22 years of measuring. Will be interesting to see what the departures are at the end of the month (as far as the DJF avg). The upcoming torch will no doubt pad the positive temperature anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: There's been some differences in the progression (not surprising since no two winters are exactly alike) but the end results may be pretty similar. I'd say the big difference between 2011-12 and this winter is that 2011-12 was much more torchy in the northern Plains. The ENSO progression in 2011-2012 was very similar to what we are seeing this year, so far. Actually, the main difference is that we're not contending with extreme drought conditions across much of the Plains and SE. So that positive feedback loop of increasingly warm weather won't be nearly as impressive this time around. 2010-2012 was in a league of its own, like our own modern dust bowl. No way we see anything close to a repeat of that, at least not any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 20 minutes ago, Powerball said: Actually, the main difference is that we're not contending with extreme drought conditions across much of the Plains and SE. So that positive feedback loop of increasingly warm weather won't be nearly as impressive this time around. 2010-2012 was in a league of its own, like our own modern dust bowl. No way we see anything close to a repeat of that, at least not any time soon. That's a good point about the drought. Even in February 2012, it was much farther along than it is now, especially in the Plains. It can spiral quickly (there was no sign of drought in the Midwest at this time in 2012) but yeah, you can never really count on 2012 style drought/heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 Look at that huge area in 90%+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 Could have some really mild low temps, especially on Monday and/or Tuesday as the gradient tightens in advance of that incoming system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Euro now has 7 consecutive days of 60+ at MLI starting Friday. Has 69 for Monday, so even a 70 degree day isn't off the table. All-time record for Feb is only 73, so it's not out of the question that could be threatened if temps overachieve one of those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Snow starting up here this morning with 4-5" expected, then another unprecedented type winter thaw for the north woods. Watch March be cold and stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 These warms fronts tends to stall south of the lakes, making it a bit harder to get warmth into ON this early. Weekend still looking great though, some sun and highs near 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 16 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Snow starting up here this morning with 4-5" expected, then another unprecedented type winter thaw for the north woods. Watch March be cold and stormy. Bo, you should research the Winter of 1995-96...I imagine it was close to record snowfall and/or snow cover days in the UP. As an example...in Minocqua WI (around 46N), they had 175 consecutive days of snow cover that season...from 11/10/1995 through 5/2/1996. That is crazy, especially since they're barely on the edge of the snowbelt and "only" average around 90" of annual snowfall. Very long snow season in 1995-96 as well; there was 17" of snow in April and 4.5" in May. Snow depth had an initial peak at 30" in early Feb, just in time for the historic arctic outbreak when low temps dropped to the -40's for three consecutive nights. Then, the depth dropped slightly until a big storm hit in late March...when the snow depth hit 33" on March 26. Then there's the opposite extreme of 2011-12, when there were 6 consecutive days in the 70's in late March, at a time when the normal high is in the upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 On 2/13/2017 at 0:03 AM, michsnowfreak said: In marquette. Lots of snow here. Drove through quite a bit of Lake effect. I'd say the deepest was munising. It's interesting how the depth varies up here. I'd say 20" in gaylord with gorgeous plastered scenery, down to like 6" at the bridge, probably 30-36" in munising. Marquette not sure as I've only been in the city so obviously lots of piled snow so harder to tell depth. The deepest was 10 miles south of Grand Marais on M-77. I have a cottage in that area that I'm considering buying. They have 48 inches on the ground with about 10 inches of liquid in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 I have to admit, this month is looking pretty bad. My season might be in serious jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: Bo, you should research the Winter of 1995-96...I imagine it was close to record snowfall and/or snow cover days in the UP. As an example...in Minocqua WI (around 46N), they had 175 consecutive days of snow cover that season...from 11/10/1995 through 5/2/1996. That is crazy, especially since they're barely on the edge of the snowbelt and "only" average around 90" of annual snowfall. Very long snow season in 1995-96 as well; there was 17" of snow in April and 4.5" in May. Snow depth had an initial peak at 30" in early Feb, just in time for the historic arctic outbreak when low temps dropped to the -40's for three consecutive nights. Then, the depth dropped slightly until a big storm hit in late March...when the snow depth hit 33" on March 26. Then there's the opposite extreme of 2011-12, when there were 6 consecutive days in the 70's in late March, at a time when the normal high is in the upper 30's. I'll have to check that winter out. I know a guy that has spoken of that winter often as "hell up here". I know in '14-15 I had 178 days of continuous snow cover, from Halloween 'til April 27th. I think average for this area is around 160 days. Currently at 85 days of constant snow cover. Not sure where this winter ends up...anything is possible. I still remember March 31-April 11th last year 54" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 4 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Euro now has 7 consecutive days of 60+ at MLI starting Friday. Has 69 for Monday, so even a 70 degree day isn't off the table. All-time record for Feb is only 73, so it's not out of the question that could be threatened if temps overachieve one of those days. MLI has had 1 streak of 60+ temps in February that lasted 7 days... in 1930. The second longest streak was a 5 day streak in 2000 (that would've been 8 days long but was interrupted by 1 day under 60). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 GFS low temps for Tuesday morning... this is incredible. Question then becomes frontal timing and whether these temps can stick the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Here's hoping we can avoid a nasty flip to cold and sail right into spring at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 Temps overachieving. It's 50 at ORD and the forecast high yesterday for today was 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 MEX has 66 for Moline on Monday. That is crazy to see a climo biased mos product nearly 30 degrees above avg at 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 can't wait to see these torches in the spring... gonna rule so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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