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February 2017 General Discussion


Hoosier

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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Josh -- I don't know if it's possible but can you approximate how much of your season's snow has come from the lake?

Its been a lot, quite unusual. Decided to look for myself. Whats impressive is that I can count 4-5 times from the lake we had near whiteout conditions.

L = Lake effect, S = Synoptic

Nov 20 - 0.1" - L

Dec 8/9 - 1.1" - L

Dec 11/12 - 10.9" - S

Dec 15 - 2.5" - L (*arctic front enhanced)

Dec 16/17 - 3.7" - S

Dec 29 - 0.3"- S

Jan 5/6 - 1.9" - L

Jan 8 - 0.6" - L (*arctic front enhanced)

Jan 10 - 3.3" - S

Jan 27 - 0.3" - L

Jan 28-30 - 2.5" - L (*shortwave enhanced)

Jan 30/31 - 4.7" - S

Feb 1 - 1.2" - L

........

LAKE - 10.2"

SYNOPTIC - 22.9"

 

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Very interesting weather day. A very heavy snow squall hit this morning around 6:30am, basically dropping an inch (0.9") of pretty dense snow (it was 31F) in 15-20 mins. DTW reported heavy snow with 0.1 mi visib. Left for work and roads were a disaster. My 45-minute commute took 1.5 hours. Despite all the plowing/salting yesterdays, the quick squall caught road crews unprepared and roads had ice where there was not snow.

 

Then, the sun and blue sky came out for just the 3rd time in 23 days, and the temp rose to 38F, melting/compacting the snow about 1.5-2" in depth. Then, as the evening commute hit it clouded up and more squalls hit, dropping a fresh 0.3" imby and 0.4" at DTW, though visibility was the bigger issue than snow/ice-covered roads. im now at 33.1" on the season with 30.0" at DTW, keeps finding ways to snow in an unfavorable pattern.

 

Snowpack is now a dense 4" and will start to freeze up tonight. Should be a great weekend for sledding as the snow will be solid and frozen.

 

4723-800.jpg

 

4724-800.jpg


The first pic is beautiful.  Can't believe it was 38 there today.  Temp fell through the lower teens and single digits here today.

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41 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its been a lot, quite unusual. Decided to look for myself. Whats impressive is that I can count 4-5 times from the lake we had near whiteout conditions.

L = Lake effect, S = Synoptic

Nov 20 - 0.1" - L

Dec 8/9 - 1.1" - L

Dec 11/12 - 10.9" - S

Dec 15 - 2.5" - L (*arctic front enhanced)

Dec 16/17 - 3.7" - S

Dec 29 - 0.3"- S

Jan 5/6 - 1.9" - L

Jan 8 - 0.6" - L (*arctic front enhanced)

Jan 10 - 3.3" - S

Jan 27 - 0.3" - L

Jan 28-30 - 2.5" - L (*shortwave enhanced)

Jan 30/31 - 4.7" - S

Feb 1 - 1.2" - L

........

LAKE - 10.2"

SYNOPTIC - 22.9"

 

Haven't been measuring every snow here but I'd guess my season total is somewhere around 12-15", with almost all of it being synoptic.  Not that I expect frequent LES here anyway.  You get more days with LES in an average year but the ceiling for a single event is a lot higher around here.

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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

The first pic is beautiful.  Can't believe it was 38 there today.  Temp fell through the lower teens and single digits here today.

Thanks. It was calm and with low dews so wasn't too bad but felt balmy. Will be very cold the next few days. Snow still has a very fresh look even though it compacted.

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This is were we stand so far this winter season for snow fall here in lower Michigan. Grand Rapids 53.8” Lansing 27.0” Muskegon 38.80” Detroit 30.2” Flint 31.8” Here is where they stand in Norther Lower Michigan.

http://www.weather.gov/apx/snowgraph_ytd

So even in norther lower Michigan the snow fall has been spotty. and in the UP Marquette is now at 88.7"

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This is were we stand so far this winter season for snow fall here in lower Michigan. Grand Rapids 53.8” Lansing 27.0” Muskegon 38.80” Detroit 30.2” Flint 31.8” Here is where they stand in Norther Lower Michigan.

http://www.weather.gov/apx/snowgraph_ytd

So even in norther lower Michigan the snow fall has been spotty. and in the UP Marquette is now at 88.7"

Crazy how much better Detroit is doing than Toledo. We've only received 16" on the season and 11" of that came in one big December storm. Climo is 37" a year so with only 6 weeks left really that 21" is gonna be hard to make up

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7 hours ago, slimjim101 said:

This is were we stand so far this winter season for snow fall here in lower Michigan. Grand Rapids 53.8” Lansing 27.0” Muskegon 38.80” Detroit 30.2” Flint 31.8” Here is where they stand in Norther Lower Michigan.

 

http://www.weather.gov/apx/snowgraph_ytd

So even in norther lower Michigan the snow fall has been spotty. and in the UP Marquette is now at 88.7"

MQT is nearly 3' below to date, and I need another 120" to hit  my average.

Something that has occurred with an unusual lack of
frequency this winter and last winter is n to ne wind lake enhanced
snow. This system should bring a period of healthy n wind lake
enhancement as 850mb temps fall Tue night, reaching -15 to -20C by
Wed morning. So, far western Upper MI (Gogebic/Ontonagon counties)
and n central Upper MI will likely see the greatest snow totals from
this system. As the deepening low reaches se Canada on Wed, arctic
air will send 850mb temps down into the low -20s. As deep layer
forcing shifts e, synoptic snow will exit Wed and n wind lake
enhanced snow, which could be very hvy in the morning

 

Here's some interesting stats.

16507899_1551863631510189_2549893087234678039_n.png

 

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Got some sun today finally ;). The grass has never been completely covered here this year.  My Tulip tree's are starting to show buds. Barely over 2-2.5 inches total so far this season in 3 different "events".  KIND may have recorded over 6 so far but this screw hole between Marion and Indy has gotten nadda.  If we don't get a miracle "reach around" Tues.- Wed., this winter will be remembered as the winter of Private Pyle :pimp:

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7 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Crazy how much better Detroit is doing than Toledo. We've only received 16" on the season and 11" of that came in one big December storm. Climo is 37" a year so with only 6 weeks left really that 21" is gonna be hard to make up

Often times we will see that MI/OH cutoff, but it's more rare to see it happen on a continual basis during an entire winter, but it does happen  (after all DTW only averages like 6" more than TOL). Ever since the snowmelt Dec 26, almost every bout of snow has had a similar looking snow depth maps.

Feb 3rd snow depth nsm_depth_2017020305_Northern_Great_Lake

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9 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Crazy how much better Detroit is doing than Toledo. We've only received 16" on the season and 11" of that came in one big December storm. Climo is 37" a year so with only 6 weeks left really that 21" is gonna be hard to make up

The numbers across MI give quite a deceptive view of how good this winter has been.

In reality, a significant chunk of that snowfall came from LES that these reporting sites have happened to luck upon. For example, DTW was inundated with Lake Michgian streamers throughout January that didn't really affect the rest of Metro Detroit.

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7 hours ago, Powerball said:

The numbers across MI give quite a deceptive view of how good this winter has been.

In reality, a significant chunk of that snowfall came from LES that these reporting sites have happened to luck upon. For example, DTW was inundated with Lake Michgian streamers throughout January that didn't really affect the rest of Metro Detroit.

Several posts up, I commented to Hoosier that I estimate 10.3" of my 33.2" came from LES. I looked up the same dates for DTW (based on what was LES & synoptic) and 8" of their 30.2" cam from the Lake. So thats basically 22-23" synoptic snow for the heart of metro-Detroit so far this winter. Looked up the Newport spotter in Monroe county, and they are at 22.1" on the season, so that supports that theory of how much synoptic the heart of metro Detroit south to the state line has had. Theres no question the ARB-DTW corridor has been cashing in on LES more than the rest of the area. I know just from driving around that some areas near me had more LES than me (and I had more than DTW).

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With clear skies and calm winds the temperature fell to +2° here at my house (looks like +5° at the airport) In the last two winters the coldest it has gotten officially is +1° on February 14th of 2016.  The coldest it has been this winter is +2° on January 6th and the last time Grand Rapids reached 0° was on March 5th 2015 and the last time it has gotten below zero was on February 28th 2015 and the last time it has gotten -10° or colder was on February 27th 2015. In other words we have gone almost two years without reaching a subzero day here in west Michigan.

 

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rough last 2 weeks to even get it to snow 6 hrs northwest of Milwaukee where i'm at in Bayfield CTY.   Almost packed it up to come home this weekend but why come home to 40's when we might have a nice run of wx up here the next 2 weeks compared to being back home in the Ohio valley climate.

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^Nice pics Josh/Chambana.

After tomorrow MLI will reach the 50 day mark with only 0.4" of snow total.  Only two days in that 50 day stretch with measurable snow.  0.3" on Jan 25th, and 0.1" on Jan 26th.  We've gotten to the point to where the futility has become very impressive, so it's going to be interesting to see how futile it continues to be going forward.  Really don't see any ops for anything more than a DAB through at least the Feb 15-20 period.  

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14 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The 18z and 00z GFS both pitch a shutout for snow for Chicago through the run. I just can't see that happening, for almost 2 months of the middle of winter to end up with under an inch of snow is just incredible.

That would really be something.

This winter for me has been an ultimate reminder of how horrible grass can look at this time of year.

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