hawkeye_wx Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Picked up 0.14" overnight. There's actually some sprouts of new green grass this morning. Last few HRRR runs have MLI languishing around 64 this afternoon. Point has 70, so we'll see. The rains overnight were less than anticipated, so hopefully that should help. MLI/DVN picked up 0.21"/0.35" respectively. I picked up 0.31" of rain. I also notice a bit of greening in the backyard. The daffodils are certainly popping. I'm not sure how warm we'll get this afternoon. The HRRR appears to be wrongly holding onto fog across Iowa, which keeps temps down in the 50s. We've been full sun for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropic Thunder Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 I think Milwaukee has a legit chance at 75+ tomorrow. The 850 mb temps will be between 13-14c which matches the 850 mb temps on 11/1/16 when we hit 77 degrees. With a similar sun angle (actually 10 days stronger now than 11/1), no snow cover, full sun, and good mixing, I don't see why we don't cruise all the way to the mid 70s. The old monthly record of 68 looks to be in serious trouble here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 64 at ORD, which is 3 degrees shy of the record 67. Clearing line is in the area but going to need to pull a rabbit out of the hat to break it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Temps are underperforming in Iowa. DVN knocked several degrees off our high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Clouds doing work, held temps in check. Only managed 63 for a high today. 74 in my forecast for tomorrow. I was was going through monthly readings and February 2017 will finish with just over 1/3 of the month spent with readings of 60 degrees of higher. Just absolutely amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Why am I using the words "only 63 in February" in a sentence. Like I'm disappointed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Up to 60 at MSN so at least tied todays record high, which makes 4 record highs in a row. Point says 65 tomorrow so we will make a run at our all time monthly high of 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Made it to 57 here today even with full cloud cover and rain, temps shouldn't drop too much tonight so tomorrow could really warm quickly if we aren't too foggy in the morning. Temps at 850 and 925 rise tomorrow through the day so we have a shot at making it close to 70 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 Looks like 66 will do it at ORD, just shy of tying the record. RFD broke their record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 As feared the streak of 70+ was broke at MLI. Wet soils probably knocked a degree or two off. 69 was the high. Still impressive, but sucks the streak is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 DTX dropping this tidbit for tomorrow Mixing depths will increase up toward 925mb where temperatures will near 12C. With mostly sunny skies, mixing depths, temps starting off in the mid 40s, and southwesterly flow, mid to upper 60s should be attainable Wednesday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, all time February highs could be in play which are: DTW...70 (1999) FNT...68 (1999) MBS...67 (1930) It wouldn't shock me if we get close, tie or break all 3 of those records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: As feared the streak of 70+ was broke at MLI. Wet soils probably knocked a degree or two off. 69 was the high. Still impressive, but sucks the streak is history. Na it doesn't suck. This is historic. Embrace it. Numbers wise it doesn't look as impressive but this is February man, unprecedented warmth shattering records left and right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Looks like 66 will do it at ORD, just shy of tying the record. RFD broke their record.So close.It kept the 60+ and 65+ streaks going though.And considering it rained this morning and cloud cover held on into the afternoon, it was quite a feat to hit 66...considering it's February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Something else that would be interesting to look at. How many people getting a 70+ degree day in Feb also experienced a 70+ degree day in November? If so, just think that there were only 2 months out of the last 12 that didn't hit 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 The only potential issue that could keep ORD from a tie or breaking the 75 degree February all time record high is fog.Already seeing a bit of ground fog developing, and the HRRR is fully onboard with dense fog developing. It was too aggressive Monday morning, and hopefully that's the case again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Starting to get concerned for fog potential tonight in northern IL and for at least some impact on temperatures tomorrow with respect to tying or breaking records, especially Chicago's all time February record. If dense fog forms with a very low stratus deck, would likely make it tougher. Recent runs of the HRRR have been showing dense fog lingering through 14-15z before dissipating. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 hour ago, buckeye said: Something else that would be interesting to look at. How many people getting a 70+ degree day in Feb also experienced a 70+ degree day in November? If so, just think that there were only 2 months out of the last 12 that didn't hit 70. CMH also had maxes of 69 in December and 67 in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 58 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Starting to get concerned for fog potential tonight in northern IL and for at least some impact on temperatures tomorrow with respect to tying or breaking records, especially Chicago's all time February record. If dense fog forms with a very low stratus deck, would likely make it tougher. Recent runs of the HRRR have been showing dense fog lingering through 14-15z before dissipating. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Was looking at maps and soundings for tomorrow, and wow, there is some unbelievably dry air just off the deck in northern IL and surrounding areas. Have to think the raw model output is going to be too high with dews as it shouldn't be difficult to mix some of that down. This would help the cause with max temps of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Starting to get concerned for fog potential tonight in northern IL and for at least some impact on temperatures tomorrow with respect to tying or breaking records, especially Chicago's all time February record. If dense fog forms with a very low stratus deck, would likely make it tougher. Recent runs of the HRRR have been showing dense fog lingering through 14-15z before dissipating. Sent from my SM-G935V using TapatalkThe NAM is onboard the fog/stratus issues as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 Gino did the evening update and he's not that concerned about the fog tomorrow, yet. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Was looking at maps and soundings for tomorrow, and wow, there is some unbelievably dry air just off the deck in northern IL and surrounding areas. Have to think the raw model output is going to be too high with dews as it shouldn't be difficult to mix some of that down. This would help the cause with max temps of course.Yep, it should be off to the races once any morning muck clears. Fog may not be a total deal breaker either. Checked the hourly obs from MDW from 2/27/76 and there was a very impressive temperature climb after 10am when it was only 54°. That day appeared to be aided as well by very strong low level advection with southwest winds gusting to 35-40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 19 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Yep, it should be off to the races once any morning muck clears. Fog may not be a total deal breaker either. Checked the hourly obs from MDW from 2/27/76 and there was a very impressive temperature climb after 10am when it was only 54°. That day appeared to be aided as well by very strong low level advection with southwest winds gusting to 35-40 mph. Dug up the PIA RAOB from that day, and it looks like 925 mb temps were ~16C, which is within a degree or so of what most model runs have been progging in northern IL. Also had a lot of dry air aloft. May be difficult to get winds as high as 2/27/76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 Aurora and Joliet under 1/4 mile visibility. Fog here too but not that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Aurora and Joliet under 1/4 mile visibility. Fog here too but not that bad. Can confirm. Nasofun driving conditions in Aurora/Naperville, especially near the small bodies of water and the prairie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 My forecast point for Friday is now 11ºC, up from 3ºC. Cold front much slower? Either way, its all smiles up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 If this is remotely close to being right, can forget about anything over 65 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 tangible possibility that this Friday ends up being the warmest day of this stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 32 minutes ago, Torchageddon said: My forecast point for Friday is now 11ºC, up from 3ºC. Cold front much slower? Either way, its all smiles up this way. Could have a sneaky shot at 70*F again as well in Detroit if the latest trends are right for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, Maxim said: tangible possibility that this Friday ends up being the warmest day of this stretch. I could definitely see that farther east. Farther west (like around Chicago) would need tomorrow to underperform and get very lucky with breaks in the rain/clouds on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 HRRR may be under-doing temps out this way for tomorrow. Moisture is very shallow, generally 300 meters deep with a layer of very dry air above it. Should be able to mix down lower dews during the afternoon. The mid 50s the HRRR is showing is suspect. Further east towards northeast IL the moisture is a bit deeper, up to around 500 meters. This may keep the low clouds/fog going longer there like others have said. Should eventually mix that out though and be able to tap into that warm dry layer just aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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