Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

February 2017 General Discussion


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 755
  • Created
  • Last Reply
15 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Officially 70 at CMI tied with the record set just LAST YEAR lol. 

Very nice!

 

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The last two 5 min obs at MLI are showing 70.

Interesting.  Good to see.  Even here we're at 68, which is only one degree lower than our high yesterday.  Clouds have really thickened in the last half hour, but the temp is still ever so slightly climbing, tenth by tenth.  So far we've gone 70/65/69/68 for Fri-today for here, while MLI has gone 73/70/74/~70.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gil Sebenste is all in on Wednesday.  He's thinking 80 in the Quad Cities, which would be stunning when considering the all time February high.

 

Haha nice.  I would be all in as well, but the rains from today/tonight may dampen up the top soil just enough to take a slight bit out of the extreme temp ascensions we've experienced the past several days.  I'm gonna go with 74 for now, for MLI based on that.  I'm thinking the past few days would have been a few degrees cooler had we had a recent rain.  I guess we'll see.  Going to be interesting.

EDIT:  I had to laugh when I read back what I just wrote.  74 a relatively conservative forecast in Feb.  That's just wow.

EDIT2: It's now 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Very nice!

 

Interesting.  Good to see.  Even here we're at 68, which is only one degree lower than our high yesterday.  Clouds have really thickened in the last half hour, but the temp is still ever so slightly climbing, tenth by tenth.  So far we've gone 70/65/69/68 for Fri-today for here, while MLI has gone 73/70/74/~70.  

Here it is if you want to keep an eye on it

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KMLI

Just change the site id to get other locations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chicago will have at least 3 days of 70+ out of this stretch.  If it ends up at 3, that would be the same number as what occurred in all Februaries prior to 2017.

I did some comparison with the 80 degree days in March.  Prior to 2012, Chicago had 10 days of 80+ in March.  March 2012 added 8 days of 80+. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the 5-min obs might be slightly overdoing the temps.  The METAR shows 20.6C, which equates to 69.08F.  The 5-min ob site looks like they round the C temp down to two sig digits first, and then converts to F.  So 20.6 rounds up to 21, which then equates to 69.8F.  The true temp in F is actually 69 (69.08F).

 

EDIT:  Of course during the course of some of the reported 70F obs, the temp in C may have bumped a bit higher than 20.6.  No way to know though unless they have an option to switch it to C.

EDIT2:  The list of raw obs does show the temp in C, but unfortunately they're all rounded down to 2 sig digits as well lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chicago will have at least 3 days of 70+ out of this stretch.  If it ends up at 3, that would be the same number as what occurred in all Februaries prior to 2017.

I did some comparison with the 80 degree days in March.  Prior to 2012, Chicago had 10 days of 80+ in March.  March 2012 added 8 days of 80+. 



Yesterday came in at 69 officially and today the 5 minute obs have been rounding to 70 but the last 2 official hourly obs have shown 69. So if the next hourly ob doesn't show 70 we'll have to wait until the 4:30pm CLI to see if there was an intra hour 70. Today will determine of we bag 2 or 3 70+ in this stretch with Wednesday looking like a lock.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, osubrett2 said:

Yes I agree. Stuck in the mid 40s and the fog is serious today. Yesterday it was just a low deck, today it's some of the densest fog I've seen in quite a while. Still less than a .25 mile visibility at 11am. 

Fog and clouds cleared out much quicker today compared to yesterday, despite a stronger inversion. Warmed up to 64F.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DVN also has some concern regarding added soil moisture, and how it may slightly impact temps Tue/Wed.  I'll be curious to see how much, if any impact it has.  

If
mixing reaches up to 850 mb, where temperatures are progged from 10
C to as high as 14 C, then mid to upper 70s would be widespread. The
one change compared to the past several days will be the added soil
moisture from the on-going rainfall, which could buffer these
extreme temperatures some. Thus, for now will maintain highs from
the upper 60s north to mid 70s south, which would be in the range of
5 to 10 degrees above records for the 22nd and possibly pushing all
time February highs at the climate sites, as listed in the climate
section.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN also has some concern regarding added soil moisture, and how it may slightly impact temps Tue/Wed.  I'll be curious to see how much, if any impact it has.  


...If
mixing reaches up to 850 mb, where temperatures are progged from 10
C to as high as 14 C, then mid to upper 70s would be widespread. The
one change compared to the past several days will be the added soil
moisture from the on-going rainfall, which could buffer these
extreme temperatures some. Thus, for now will maintain highs from
the upper 60s north to mid 70s south, which would be in the range of
5 to 10 degrees above records for the 22nd and possibly pushing all
time February highs at the climate sites, as listed in the climate
section...

Depends on winds and ambient dews, but I would imagine it will have at least a couple degree effect. Easy to undershoot lapse rates this time of the year because of a near total lack of evapotranspiration.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Yesterday came in at 69 officially and today the 5 minute obs have been rounding to 70 but the last 2 official hourly obs have shown 69. So if the next hourly ob doesn't show 70 we'll have to wait until the 4:30pm CLI to see if there was an intra hour 70. Today will determine of we bag 2 or 3 70+ in this stretch with Wednesday looking like a lock.


ORD did officially hit 70 today, so unless something strange happens, should be 3 definite 70+ in this stretch there including Wednesday, with tomorrow and Friday possibilities.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN also has some concern regarding added soil moisture, and how it may slightly impact temps Tue/Wed.  I'll be curious to see how much, if any impact it has.  


If
mixing reaches up to 850 mb, where temperatures are progged from 10
C to as high as 14 C, then mid to upper 70s would be widespread. The
one change compared to the past several days will be the added soil
moisture from the on-going rainfall, which could buffer these
extreme temperatures some. Thus, for now will maintain highs from
the upper 60s north to mid 70s south, which would be in the range of
5 to 10 degrees above records for the 22nd and possibly pushing all
time February highs at the climate sites, as listed in the climate
section.

Rain looks to be on a weakening trend as it gets this far east, but the trade-off is that we didn't enter this stretch as dry as you guys. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is shaping up to be one of the more impressive weather events I can remember around here.  Tagging 70 in Feb is a huge feat in it's own, but to do it 4 days in a row, with a potential for 6 days in a row?  Just insane.  

Wednesday looks like a slam dunk 70+.  Point is now up to 75, so a new all-time record may be set again.  Tomorrow is somewhat questionable though, as we will have wet soils from tonight's rain, and will have to contend with weak caa much of the day.  Point has 68, so it will be close.  HRRRx only has it making 66-67.  Even if tomorrow fails to reach 70, having 5 out of 6 days in a row AOA 70 this early is just madness.  Something we will definitely never see again.  I'd bet my 401K on it lol.

Here's a nice graphic put out by DVN with some other sites in the cwa as well...

14to9s5.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 or more consecutive days with record highs in Chicago, since 2000:

 

March 14-22, 2012 (9 days)

February 17-20, 2017 (4 days and counting)

July 4-6, 2012  (3 days)

March 6-8, 2000 (3 days)

 

If everything goes right, the current streak could extend to 6 days.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Picked up 0.14" overnight.  There's actually some sprouts of new green grass this morning.  

Last few HRRR runs have MLI languishing around 64 this afternoon.  Point has 70, so we'll see.  The rains overnight were less than anticipated, so hopefully that should help.  MLI/DVN picked up 0.21"/0.35" respectively.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...