February 2017 General Discussion

[Torchageddon]

5 hours ago, IthielZ said:

This is crazy.

Crazy good, full sunshine days here in the snowbelt in February are very rare...today there wasn't a single cloud or obstruction. In tandem with the record temperatures, the rays were liberating from this nasty season. Air "smelt" awesome too. I had a bike ride in the afternoon which is the earliest I've ever had one and the only one in February. It was 10ºC for a high.

Looking at extreme SW Ontario, I'm blown away that Sarnia and Windsor got to 19ºC...just damn!!!  That's inconceivable for Feb.18, probably one of the few times something like that occurred was 17 years ago plus one week ahead. Not to mention their ground is bare so none of that white light business. To say I'm jealous of that would be an understatement. 
 

[CoachLB]

DAY broke record high temp from 1948. High of 66 today. Old record was 64.

[stormtrackertf]

Suspect, but the usual cool spot in the area, KARB, is down to 38 degrees after a high of 68. That is some serious radiational cooling.

They also started the day at 26°F, which also seems suspect, even though it is usually the coldest spot south of M-59 by a long shot.

[ConfusedKitten]

3 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

Crazy good, full sunshine days here in the snowbelt in February are very rare...today there wasn't a single cloud or obstruction. In tandem with the record temperatures, the rays were liberating from this nasty season. Air "smelt" awesome too. I had a bike ride in the afternoon which is the earliest I've ever had one and the only one in February. It was 10ºC for a high.

Looking at extreme SW Ontario, I'm blown away that Sarnia and Windsor got to 19ºC...just damn!!!  That's inconceivable for Feb.18, probably one of the few times something like that occurred was 17 years ago plus one week ahead. Not to mention their ground is bare so none of that white light business. To say I'm jealous of that would be an understatement. 
 

Holy crap 19 is crazy, I was up in Collingwood and they were actually the first to tag 10 Celsius today at 7 AM, maybe because of the downslope wind off the escarpment? It was 13 and sunny basically all day, saw multiple people skiing in T-shirt and shorts.

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Don't want to get too far down the hole here but...

Not easy to attribute individual events to climate change, but this is one of the things you would expect to see... more frequent/anomalous warm spells in terms of duration/magnitude.  

Now, nobody can deny that we've had some impressive cold in this region in the past few years.  But on the warm side, we've had the unprecedented Morch 2012 and now 5 years later are currently in the midst of Morch junior as far as anomalies/duration (especially true with southward extent). Would either of these events have been as impressive with a cooler baseline?  No El Nino in either case btw, though of course we had the super Nino last winter.

The biggest "trend" we are seeing here is the overall increase in snowfall. But the roller coaster of extremes we have seen the last 5 years has been something. March 2012. Summer 2012. Winter 2013-14. February 2015. These are ridiculous anomalous events. I have to say winter 13-14 was the most impressive and summer 12 the least impressive of that lot, but still, those extremes seen in the past 5 years...you can go decades without seeing any one of those extremes. The peak of the March 2012 heatwave was insane, and i remember someone stating you would never see a negative departure like that, and we actually exceeded it just 2 years 11 months later. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, IthielZ said:

Suspect, but the usual cool spot in the area, KARB, is down to 38 degrees after a high of 68. That is some serious radiational cooling.

They also started the day at 26°F, which also seems suspect, even though it is usually the coldest spot south of M-59 by a long shot.

It's not suspect it's just not representative. Much like YIP with the torching  (though they only got 69 today same as DTW). The thermometers are fine, just bad spots if you want a representative temperature lol

[michsnowfreak]

3 years ago today. Depth 21". Hadnt seen bare ground in 10 weeks at that point. And winter was nowhere near over. Oh for a time machine.

[Snowstorms]

22 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The biggest "trend" we are seeing here is the overall increase in snowfall. But the roller coaster of extremes we have seen the last 5 years has been something. March 2012. Summer 2012. Winter 2013-14. February 2015. These are ridiculous anomalous events. I have to say winter 13-14 was the most impressive and summer 12 the least impressive of that lot, but still, those extremes seen in the past 5 years...you can go decades without seeing any one of those extremes. The peak of the March 2012 heatwave was insane, and i remember someone stating you would never see a negative departure like that, and we actually exceeded it just 2 years 11 months later. 

I remember 3-4 years ago I was a huge denier of any AGW and refuted the idea of humans having the kind of impact media had expelled on us. But now 3-4 years later, I'm starting to lean more towards that argument. However, I still believe its contribution is small, but on a larger scale it can have some serious impacts. 

Sure we had an increase in overall snowfall in some areas, however we've also seen winters with ridiculously low snowfall all within the last decade or two. 2011-12, 2015-16, 2006-07 and this Winter stand out as some examples. So while we saw great winters like 07-08, 08-09, 10-11 and 13-14, we've seen a fair share of ridiculously bad winters all within the same timeframe. Point is we've seen alot of extremes in the last couple of years, more than you'd typically see in a short amount of time. 

March 2012 was a once in a lifetime event, however this February is shaping up to be a record breaking month in terms of warmth for many areas. 2012 wasn't that long ago and to see another extremely warm month in Winter is compelling. For example, at YYZ only April 2016 was below normal since January 2016 lol. Every other month since then has been above normal and the same can be said for many other areas. 

In Detroit for example, 2013-14 was the snowiest Winter on record then December 2014 ended up being one of the least snowiest Decembers on record, if I'm correct?. Alot of extremes. I think with AGW in the picture were going to see alot of extremes, more than just "slightly above average" type of anomalies. Some of it can be contributed to weather cycles but the bigger picture seems to be extremes. 

 

 

[Maxim]

March 2012 was many times more impressive than the nickle and dime winter of 13-14, lol.

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, Maxim said:

March 2012 was many times more impressive than the nickle and dime winter of 13-14, lol.

Yeah, there wasn't any real pinnacle storm even the year after had a much better storm. 13-14 was just consistent and unrelenting.

[Hoosier]

35 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The biggest "trend" we are seeing here is the overall increase in snowfall. But the roller coaster of extremes we have seen the last 5 years has been something. March 2012. Summer 2012. Winter 2013-14. February 2015. These are ridiculous anomalous events. I have to say winter 13-14 was the most impressive and summer 12 the least impressive of that lot, but still, those extremes seen in the past 5 years...you can go decades without seeing any one of those extremes. The peak of the March 2012 heatwave was insane, and i remember someone stating you would never see a negative departure like that, and we actually exceeded it just 2 years 11 months later. 

Lots of extremes for sure, but I disagree with your rankings as just in terms of expected return rate, it would be harder to get another March 2012 than a winter 2013-14 (not to take anything away from that winter).  It would probably be like getting 125" of snow at DTW... apples and oranges though.

[cyclone77]

Pretty impressive temp crash this evening.  Some places over 30 degrees cooler than 6hrs ago.  Good shot to go below freezing with another 8+hrs of dark left.

[Hoosier]

HRRR really doesn't even get the lake breeze to ORD/MDW... through 21z.  

[Hoosier]

Already down into the mid 30s here.  With calm/light wind, lack of WAA aloft, and several more hours of cooling potential, looks like there's a shot to get below freezing.

[Powerball]

6 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yeah, there wasn't any real pinnacle storm even the year after had a much better storm. 13-14 was just consistent and unrelenting.

For many in MI / IN, the PV Blizzard was a "pinnacle" storm. There was a widespread swath of 12-18" from the Northern half of Indiana through SW Michigan and through the far NW suburbs.

But locally, it definitely falls short of GHD II.

[IWXwx]

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1245 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2017

...RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED AT FORT WAYNE...

A RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 42 DEGREES WAS SET AT FORT 
WAYNE YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 42 SET IN 1981.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I remember 3-4 years ago I was a huge denier of any AGW and refuted the idea of humans having the kind of impact media had expelled on us. But now 3-4 years later, I'm starting to lean more towards that argument. However, I still believe its contribution is small, but on a larger scale it can have some serious impacts. 

Sure we had an increase in overall snowfall in some areas, however we've also seen winters with ridiculously low snowfall all within the last decade or two. 2011-12, 2015-16, 2006-07 and this Winter stand out as some examples. So while we saw great winters like 07-08, 08-09, 10-11 and 13-14, we've seen a fair share of ridiculously bad winters all within the same timeframe. Point is we've seen alot of extremes in the last couple of years, more than you'd typically see in a short amount of time. 

March 2012 was a once in a lifetime event, however this February is shaping up to be a record breaking month in terms of warmth for many areas. 2012 wasn't that long ago and to see another extremely warm month in Winter is compelling. For example, at YYZ only April 2016 was below normal since January 2016 lol. Every other month since then has been above normal and the same can be said for many other areas. 

In Detroit for example, 2013-14 was the snowiest Winter on record then December 2014 ended up being one of the least snowiest Decembers on record, if I'm correct?. Alot of extremes. I think with AGW in the picture were going to see alot of extremes, more than just "slightly above average" type of anomalies. Some of it can be contributed to weather cycles but the bigger picture seems to be extremes. 

 

 

I was referring to here, i know you guys in Toronto have been suffering in the snowfall department. Its been a weird fluke as Toronto has had a handful of very low snowfall years while the midwest and northeast had been getting tons of snow.

 

We have had nothing close to low snowfall records here since the onslaught began 15 or so years ago. We can barely get a below average snow season much less record low snow. Yes, December 2014 was the 2nd least snowy Dec on record. But it followed the 2nd worst Nov coldsnap on record and was followed by the 3rd largest snowstorm on record and the coldest February in 140 years. In the last 10 years, we have had 13 months in the top 20 snowiest and 4 in the top 20 least snowy. Just 2 of the 10 years had below normal snow, and neither of them were close to top 20 lowest. but 4 of those 10 years have made the top TEN snowiest winters on record.

 

Extremes are nothing new, its just the type of extremes we have had the last 5 years has been impressive. By my own admission, Im always pulling snow stats out, but usually reserve the temp stats for when some sort of warm/cold event is ongoing for comparison purposes. But I could show you some amazing winter warm spells from the 1800s and early 20th century that would make your jaw drop. Xmacis is a wonderful climate tool to search for anything, anywhere.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, Maxim said:

March 2012 was many times more impressive than the nickle and dime winter of 13-14, lol.

 

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Lots of extremes for sure, but I disagree with your rankings as just in terms of expected return rate, it would be harder to get another March 2012 than a winter 2013-14 (not to take anything away from that winter).  It would probably be like getting 125" of snow at DTW... apples and oranges though.

Not even close here. Not. Even. Close. 2013-14 was far more unprecedented than March 2012. I am talking specifically for HERE, not the events as a whole. Yes, if we are talking Minnesota or North Dakota, Id give March 2012 the edge. Right off the bat, the core of the March 2012 heat was to our west, and we were ground zero for the severe winter of 2013-14. Both events were extremely anomalous in the region.

 

March 2012 set 7 daily records highs (a match to Feb 2015's 7 daily record lows) 5 of those 7 days also had record low mins. While it was a 2 week onslaught of warmth, the truly unprecedented portion was Mar 20-22, when the 3 days saw temps of +31F. The final monthly temp departure was +13.5F (Feb 2015 finished with -14.0F departure). Im not even saying that Mar 2012 was more or less impressive than Feb 2015, just that the temp departure was a bit greater in Feb.

 

But 2013-14...

 

Winter 2013-14 set 55 daily records (39 snow depth, 5 snowfall, 11 temp). I was not simply talking about it being the snowiest winter on record. But the combination of snowfall + snow depth + cold was unprecedented (basically, it was going to be that cold there shouldnt have been that much snow, and vice versa. It just didnt make sense from a climatological standpoint here). It was not only a relentless onslaught, it wasnt exactly a nickel and dime winter either. Detroit saw 6 storms of 6"+, which ties the record for most, and 4 of those 6 storms were in excess of 8 inches. Yes, we didnt see a big daddy (that would be seen the following winter), but we did see two 10"+ storms the same week, only the 2nd time thats happened. It was the snowiest winter on record (beat the infamous 1880-81), the most snowcovered winter on record (beat the infamous 1977-78), and 8th coldest winter on record, since the 1870s. It was the 4th coldest Nov-Mar period. It was the 4th most below zero days and the 3rd most days with highs below freezing of any winter season (even more impressive here in the days of UHI). But despite all this, it was the snow depth that was mind blowing. Snow depth records go to the 1890s (so not QUITE as long as temp/snowfall). 39 daily records were set that winter. Feb had wall-to-wall double-digit depth, a feat never close to being accomplished before (until the following Feb lol). We blew away the record for most 10"+ snow depth days by 34 days! Blew away the record for most 15"+ depth days by 14 days.

 

I agree it is apples to oranges, as we are comparing a 2 week heatwave to a 4 month winter assault. But again, the above mentioned reasons are why HERE there is no comparison. I can't even imagine the opposite of a 2013-14 winter. I guess maybe 1881-82? Nothing really close imo.

[Chambana]

Last nights HRRR run hinted at the possibility of fog persisting for several hours across parts of Illinois, if this verifies could limit our potential until it mixes out. 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

9 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I remember 3-4 years ago I was a huge denier of any AGW and refuted the idea of humans having the kind of impact media had expelled on us. But now 3-4 years later, I'm starting to lean more towards that argument. However, I still believe its contribution is small, but on a larger scale it can have some serious impacts. 

Sure we had an increase in overall snowfall in some areas, however we've also seen winters with ridiculously low snowfall all within the last decade or two. 2011-12, 2015-16, 2006-07 and this Winter stand out as some examples. So while we saw great winters like 07-08, 08-09, 10-11 and 13-14, we've seen a fair share of ridiculously bad winters all within the same timeframe. Point is we've seen alot of extremes in the last couple of years, more than you'd typically see in a short amount of time. 

March 2012 was a once in a lifetime event, however this February is shaping up to be a record breaking month in terms of warmth for many areas. 2012 wasn't that long ago and to see another extremely warm month in Winter is compelling. For example, at YYZ only April 2016 was below normal since January 2016 lol. Every other month since then has been above normal and the same can be said for many other areas. 

In Detroit for example, 2013-14 was the snowiest Winter on record then December 2014 ended up being one of the least snowiest Decembers on record, if I'm correct?. Alot of extremes. I think with AGW in the picture were going to see alot of extremes, more than just "slightly above average" type of anomalies. Some of it can be contributed to weather cycles but the bigger picture seems to be extremes. 

 

 

Good post. I'm pretty much in the same boat. I used to be skeptical of AGW, at least the way it was portrayed in the media, and a big fan of Joe Bastardi (I know, many on this board are likely rolling their eyes right now!). However, it cannot be denied that we have seem some very strange, anomalous weather over the past five years or so. I no longer subscribe to Weatherbell, but do watch Bastardi's free videos (daily and weekend updates). To be fair, he has come out and admitted that he busted big time with this winter and explained why. However, I still don't think he's seeing the big picture. The fact is that there was a good set-up for a cold winter this year. All the indices were right...except that the cold never materialized. Could this be a sign of something he just doesn't want to see?

 

On the other hand, it has been colder than average in Russia - I believe Moscow has had its coldest winter in years.

[cyclone77]

Got all the way down to 29 here, and MLI made it down to at least 28.  Point is at 70, so a 3rd 70+ looking likely for MLI.  We've risen 8 degrees in the last 35 minutes up to 40.  MLI was 33 at 8am, and has a good shot to have a 10-15 degree rise by the 9am ob.  

Some pretty strong wording from DVN regarding Wednesday temp potential...

With a
wave of low pressure moving through Minnesota Wednesday, sending a
front down our way by evening, we should see southwest winds...
sunshine...and nearly maximized prefrontal warming of the mild air
mass already in place. This all points to a period that is likely
to be exceptional. I would not be surprised to see a new all time
record February high set at Moline Wednesday afternoon in the mid
to upper 70s. For now, since this day 4, will go a bit more
conservative and lower 60s north to 70 to 73 south which is
already above record high levels.

[Jonger]

11 hours ago, Maxim said:

March 2012 was many times more impressive than the nickle and dime winter of 13-14, lol.

March 2012 was like 2 weeks.

Winter 2013-2014 was 3 straight months of -10F and record snowfall. 

Actually February 2015 had a wider anomaly than March 2012.

Locally, March 2012 was +14.3 

February 2015 was -14.5

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, Jonger said:

March 2012 was like 2 weeks.

Winter 2013-2014 was 3 straight months of -10F and record snowfall. That has probably happened less than 5 times in recorded history.

March 2012 was a warm 2 weeks.

 

Exactly. It had never happened once in detroit in recorded history, much less 5 times. 

[Jonger]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Exactly. It had never happened once in detroit in recorded history, much less 5 times. 

The cold might have happened 5 times, the snow never did.

 

[Jonger]

11 hours ago, Maxim said:

March 2012 was many times more impressive for me than 13-14, I get chilly at 50 degrees and my walk to work was much easier.

FYP

[Hoosier]

Got down to 30 here last night.  Temp has already risen 25 degrees.

[Chambana]

Fog doing work. Temps 8 degrees behind this time yesterday. Got 72 in my forecast for Wednesday now.

[BuffaloWeather]

I was very skeptical about GW as well, but after doing quite a bit of research I found it almost impossible to deny now. Even on a local level its abundantly clear that temperatures are increasing faster then they would be if human influences were tossed aside. You look at the global temperature pattern over the last 50 years and the rate of temperature increase is just incredible. If you prorate that growth trend over the next 100-200 years and then we will start to see dramatic impacts on the planet. I'm happy I won't be there to see that. Warmer than average years does not mean snowfall will be lower than average. One of the warmest years here was Buffalos 2nd highest snowfall year on record. You just need a few storms to line up right, or a good lake effect band and the rest of the year can be above normal yet snowfall will still be above average. This is especially true in cities that don't average a lot of snow like Detriot/Chicago.

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2013/03/is_global_warming_causing_mich.html

 

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Not even close here. Not. Even. Close. 2013-14 was far more unprecedented than March 2012. I am talking specifically for HERE, not the events as a whole. Yes, if we are talking Minnesota or North Dakota, Id give March 2012 the edge. Right off the bat, the core of the March 2012 heat was to our west, and we were ground zero for the severe winter of 2013-14. Both events were extremely anomalous in the region.

 

March 2012 set 7 daily records highs (a match to Feb 2015's 7 daily record lows) 5 of those 7 days also had record low mins. While it was a 2 week onslaught of warmth, the truly unprecedented portion was Mar 20-22, when the 3 days saw temps of +31F. The final monthly temp departure was +13.5F (Feb 2015 finished with -14.0F departure). Im not even saying that Mar 2012 was more or less impressive than Feb 2015, just that the temp departure was a bit greater in Feb.

 

But 2013-14...

 

Winter 2013-14 set 55 daily records (39 snow depth, 5 snowfall, 11 temp). I was not simply talking about it being the snowiest winter on record. But the combination of snowfall + snow depth + cold was unprecedented (basically, it was going to be that cold there shouldnt have been that much snow, and vice versa. It just didnt make sense from a climatological standpoint here). It was not only a relentless onslaught, it wasnt exactly a nickel and dime winter either. Detroit saw 6 storms of 6"+, which ties the record for most, and 4 of those 6 storms were in excess of 8 inches. Yes, we didnt see a big daddy (that would be seen the following winter), but we did see two 10"+ storms the same week, only the 2nd time thats happened. It was the snowiest winter on record (beat the infamous 1880-81), the most snowcovered winter on record (beat the infamous 1977-78), and 8th coldest winter on record, since the 1870s. It was the 4th coldest Nov-Mar period. It was the 4th most below zero days and the 3rd most days with highs below freezing of any winter season (even more impressive here in the days of UHI). But despite all this, it was the snow depth that was mind blowing. Snow depth records go to the 1890s (so not QUITE as long as temp/snowfall). 39 daily records were set that winter. Feb had wall-to-wall double-digit depth, a feat never close to being accomplished before (until the following Feb lol). We blew away the record for most 10"+ snow depth days by 34 days! Blew away the record for most 15"+ depth days by 14 days.

 

I agree it is apples to oranges, as we are comparing a 2 week heatwave to a 4 month winter assault. But again, the above mentioned reasons are why HERE there is no comparison. I can't even imagine the opposite of a 2013-14 winter. I guess maybe 1881-82? Nothing really close imo.

March 2012 beat the previous warmest March by 2.8 degrees at Detroit.  Normally when you are looking at the top warmest by month, the first place holder might be above second place by tenths.

But yes, 2013-14 was an impressive winter when you look at a combination of factors like total snow, snow depth, cold, etc.

[Jonger]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I was very skeptical about GW as well, but after doing quite a bit of research I found it almost impossible to deny now. Even on a local level its abundantly clear that temperatures are increasing faster then they would be if human influences were tossed aside. You look at the global temperature pattern over the last 50 years and the rate of temperature increase is just incredible. If you prorate that growth trend over the next 100-200 years and then we will start to see dramatic impacts on the planet. I'm happy I won't be there to see that. Warmer than average years does not mean snowfall will be lower than average. One of the warmest years here was Buffalos 2nd highest snowfall year on record. You just need a few storms to line up right, or a good lake effect band and the rest of the year can be above normal yet snowfall will still be above average. This is especially true in cities that don't average a lot of snow like Detriot/Chicago.

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2013/03/is_global_warming_causing_mich.html

 

I agree the earth is warming. I'm not sure it's having that big of an effect locally, I'm sure a bit. The one thing about that graph is that it starts just after a period of pronounced warmth. If you continued that graph back, it might have peaked close to the late 2000's.