josh_4184 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 May hit 50s around my area, would sure be impressive for this time of the year and amount of snowpack we still have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 Got to at least 71 in St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 55 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I think tomorrow, Saturday and Monday are pretty safe bets to tag 60. Sunday is a wild card due to weak synoptic flow with sfc high overhead, could yield an early lake breeze onset, though a late enough passage would make 60 certainly doable. The 50+ streak will depend on how that low out west evolves late week with respect to wind direction. Some of the models are showing pretty stout onshore synoptic flow late work week, which could keep highs in 40s even with air mass aloft still very warm. We look good for at least 6 days. Helps that ORD is as far west as possible from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 HRRR ended up being a bit too warm, but still about 6 degrees higher than what the Euro had been showing all week for today at MLI. They hit 56. Big difference between there and here. Only hit 46 here, which is only about 25 miles notheast of MLI. Temp fell from 50 to 44 on the relatively short drive home from work. Kirksville MO roasted at 73 today. Very impressive. EDIT: the 12z Euro only had Kirksville hitting 60 today. Was a good 7-10 degrees too cool around the KC area as well. For MLI I think I'll go with 71 tomorrow. Old record is 63 from 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: HRRR ended up being a bit too warm, but still about 6 degrees higher than what the Euro had been showing all week for today at MLI. They hit 56. Big difference between there and here. Only hit 46 here, which is only about 25 miles notheast of MLI. Temp fell from 50 to 44 on the relatively short drive home from work. Kirksville MO roasted at 73 today. Very impressive. EDIT: the 12z Euro only had Kirksville hitting 60 today. Was a good 7-10 degrees too cool around the KC area as well. For MLI I think I'll go with 71 tomorrow. Old record is 63 from 2011. Amazing that the Euro was that far off, as its 2m temps are generally better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 MET has 74 at St. Louis tomorrow. I went back and looked at the HRRR runs from last night around this time, and they were several degrees too cool around there. The 01z HRRR has St. Louis near 70 at 19z. I think upper 70s are definitely in play there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 36 minutes ago, Hoosier said: MET has 74 at St. Louis tomorrow. I went back and looked at the HRRR runs from last night around this time, and they were several degrees too cool around there. The 01z HRRR has St. Louis near 70 at 19z. I think upper 70s are definitely in play there. At this point the question is, do they crack 80 in this torch, and has STL ever hit 80 in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 STL has been over 80 6 times on the 1st 84 1911, 10th 83 1932, 13th 83 1962, 24th 81 1930, 29th and 30th 80 and 85 in 1972, so it isn't unprecedented that they could hit 80 in this torch, though it is pretty rare. I will say this the craziest record of that bunch is 84 on February 1st 1911. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 22 minutes ago, Stebo said: At this point the question is, do they crack 80 in this torch, and has STL ever hit 80 in February. They've hit 80 several times in February (84 on Feb 1, 1911... wtf). Most recently on February 24, 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: They've hit 80 several times in February (84 on Feb 1, 1911... wtf). Most recently on February 24, 2000. Lol we were looking up the same stats at the same time haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: Lol we were looking up the same stats at the same time haha. Indeed That 84 on 2/1/1911 is 43 degrees above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Indeed That 84 on 2/1/1911 is 43 degrees above average. Has to be their largest daily departure on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Heavy frost with a temp of 26 to start this morning. MLI bottomed out at 27. Going to be a very impressive temp ascension today. Still gonna go with 71 for MLI, 67 for here. EDIT: One hell of an inversion this morning. 12z DVN sounding has temps near 60 degrees already at 2500ft. So the temp rises over 30 degrees in the lower km above some of the cold spots, like MLI and here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 33 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Heavy frost with a temp of 26 to start this morning. MLI bottomed out at 27. Going to be a very impressive temp ascension today. Still gonna go with 71 for MLI, 67 for here. EDIT: One hell of an inversion this morning. 12z DVN sounding has temps near 60 degrees already at 2500ft. So the temp rises over 30 degrees in the lower km above some of the cold spots, like MLI and here. MLI has never had a 70s/20s day in February, so it will be interesting to watch. Have come close a couple times... had a 71/31 on 2/27/76 and a 69/26 On 2/11/99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 MLI rose 12 degrees in the past hour, which is a testament to that shallow, sharp inversion on the DVN sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 51 at MLI. From 31 to 51 in 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 Already 50 at ORD, which is even ahead of the HRRR by a few degrees. 62-63 might be doable, but only need 61 to break the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 52 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Already 50 at ORD, which is even ahead of the HRRR by a few degrees. 62-63 might be doable, but only need 61 to break the record. 56 at ORD, 67 at STL Rapid warmup just like yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Still in the 30's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, csnavywx said: 56 at ORD, 67 at STL Rapid warmup just like yesterday HRRR still playing catch up by about 3-5 degrees. At this rate, 64-65 may not be entirely out of the question at ORD and something north of 75 looks very likely for STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Milwaukee already broke their daily record high. Up to 56 at 11 am. the old record was 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 ILX noting the low dews Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1114 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1054 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 Warm and sunny for Central Illinois today...as southwesterly winds keep the warm air advection going across the region. Major issue with the short term forecast is with the dewpoints. The guidance is too far overdone. Moisture return with the WAA is limited with the prolonged dry periods to the SW. Without a single dewpoint over 36 in the state of Missouri...the dewpoints are not going to come up into the 40s... much less with any mixing out this afternoon from an incredibly dry sounding aloft. Have dropped the dewpoints and the Min RH as a result. Fire weather interests are still a concern with RH low and 10 hr fuels expanding. Minor updates out momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 55 IMBY as of 11:30, up from a low of 25 @ 7:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Remember at the beginning of this thread when I jokingly predicted February would have more snow than January in Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 ORD up to 60, which ties the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Remember at the beginning of this thread when I jokingly predicted February would have more snow than January in Chicago?And March will have more than both, right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Up to 62 here Recent HRRR runs have been playing catch-up, adding a few degrees to the highs. It now has 72 along I-80 and around 70 here by 3-4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 Actually put the AC on when I got into my car. Felt like about 90 degrees in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 62 at ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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