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February 2017 General Discussion


Hoosier

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55 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

 


I think tomorrow, Saturday and Monday are pretty safe bets to tag 60. Sunday is a wild card due to weak synoptic flow with sfc high overhead, could yield an early lake breeze onset, though a late enough passage would make 60 certainly doable.

The 50+ streak will depend on how that low out west evolves late week with respect to wind direction. Some of the models are showing pretty stout onshore synoptic flow late work week, which could keep highs in 40s even with air mass aloft still very warm. We look good for at least 6 days.

 

Helps that ORD is as far west as possible from the lake.  

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HRRR ended up being a bit too warm, but still about 6 degrees higher than what the Euro had been showing all week for today at MLI.  They hit 56.  Big difference between there and here.  Only hit 46 here, which is only about 25 miles notheast of MLI.  Temp fell from 50 to 44 on the relatively short drive home from work.  

Kirksville MO roasted at 73 today.  Very impressive.

 

EDIT:  the 12z Euro only had Kirksville hitting 60 today.  Was a good 7-10 degrees too cool around the KC area as well.

For MLI I think I'll go with 71 tomorrow.  Old record is 63 from 2011.  

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

HRRR ended up being a bit too warm, but still about 6 degrees higher than what the Euro had been showing all week for today at MLI.  They hit 56.  Big difference between there and here.  Only hit 46 here, which is only about 25 miles notheast of MLI.  Temp fell from 50 to 44 on the relatively short drive home from work.  

Kirksville MO roasted at 73 today.  Very impressive.

 

EDIT:  the 12z Euro only had Kirksville hitting 60 today.  Was a good 7-10 degrees too cool around the KC area as well.

For MLI I think I'll go with 71 tomorrow.  Old record is 63 from 2011.  

Amazing that the Euro was that far off, as its 2m temps are generally better.

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36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

MET has 74 at St. Louis tomorrow.  I went back and looked at the HRRR runs from last night around this time, and they were several degrees too cool around there.  The 01z HRRR has St. Louis near 70 at 19z.  I think upper 70s are definitely in play there.

At this point the question is, do they crack 80 in this torch, and has STL ever hit 80 in February.

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STL has been over 80 6 times on the 1st 84 1911, 10th 83 1932, 13th 83 1962, 24th 81 1930, 29th and 30th 80 and 85 in 1972, so it isn't unprecedented that they could hit 80 in this torch, though it is pretty rare. I will say this the craziest record of that bunch is 84 on February 1st 1911.

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Heavy frost with a temp of 26 to start this morning.  MLI bottomed out at 27.  Going to be a very impressive temp ascension today.  Still gonna go with 71 for MLI, 67 for here.  

 

EDIT:  One hell of an inversion this morning.  12z DVN sounding has temps near 60 degrees already at 2500ft.  So the temp rises over 30 degrees in the lower km above some of the cold spots, like MLI and here.  

msodxz.jpg

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33 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Heavy frost with a temp of 26 to start this morning.  MLI bottomed out at 27.  Going to be a very impressive temp ascension today.  Still gonna go with 71 for MLI, 67 for here.  

 

EDIT:  One hell of an inversion this morning.  12z DVN sounding has temps near 60 degrees already at 2500ft.  So the temp rises over 30 degrees in the lower km above some of the cold spots, like MLI and here.  

msodxz.jpg

MLI has never had a 70s/20s day in February, so it will be interesting to watch. Have come close a couple times... had a 71/31 on 2/27/76 and a 69/26 On 2/11/99.

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ILX noting the low dews

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1114 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Warm and sunny for Central Illinois today...as southwesterly
winds keep the warm air advection going across the region. Major
issue with the short term forecast is with the dewpoints. The
guidance is too far overdone. Moisture return with the WAA is
limited with the prolonged dry periods to the SW. Without a single
dewpoint over 36 in the state of Missouri...the dewpoints are
not going to come up into the 40s... much less with any mixing out
this afternoon from an incredibly dry sounding aloft. Have dropped
the dewpoints and the Min RH as a result. Fire weather interests
are still a concern with RH low and 10 hr fuels expanding. Minor
updates out momentarily.
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