February 2017 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Well, it's a trend among most of the forecasters, I've been running that extreme forecast for three years now and we've always had half or more of the forecasts qualifying (meaning that the most extreme forecast is quite often high score).

I think 4 to 6 deg F anomaly sounds big but in climatological terms it is fairly modest, the standard deviation for most of these stations (outside of maybe summer) is close to 4 or 5 F deg. Record high values are usually around 11-13 F deg (maybe 6-8 in July and August). PHX and SEA tend to have smaller ranges. 

I have yet to earn a point for ORD which is really not my usual nemesis but I keep imagining a cold spell over the horizon and it never happens. 

[Roger Smith]

 

Extreme Forecast Updated Standings

February produced eight extreme forecast qualifiers for a total of 15 out of 18 so far this year. The details were shown back in post 23 with the monthly scoring. Annual scoring updates were also posted (post 28).  Congrats to Rjay who swept the high scoring for the month overall and in the original six portion. The updated standings show 17 wins so far as there were two tied results in January. A "loss" in these tables is not a bad thing, it is awarded when the extreme forecast does not win high score but second extreme does so.

 

DonSutherland1 ____ 5-1

RJay _____________ 4-0

Prestige Worldwide __3-0

Maxim ____________ 2-0

Dmillz25 ___________1-0

Wxallannj __________1-0

Roger Smith _______ 1-0

Stebo _____________0-1

____________________________________________

(to summarize, all other scoring and final anomalies can be found in edited previous posts, scroll back ... anomalies were

_____ +8.7 __ +6.3 __ +4.9 ____ +10.3 __ +8.9 __ +10.0 ____ +7.8 __ +2.2 __ --2.1