February 2017 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

As always, predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) for these nine locations relative to 1981-2010 normal values:

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

Late penalties will revert to the usual values, 1% every two hours late (after 06z Feb 1st) to 18z 2nd, then 1% per hour. If you missed January, you're probably not very far behind most of the group, the scoring was relatively low (unless the Sun goes dark before tomorrow, and if so, you won't need to enter this contest). 

[so_whats_happening]

Oh man January was a hurt especially the east portion lol thought more troughing would occur, but nighttime lows are killing the averages. oh and this will surely change in my head about a thousand times until then

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.8 ____1.2____1.0_____1.8____2.1____2.6______1.0____1.1____-0.8

 

[Maxim]

DCA: +3.0

NYC: +3.0

BOS: +2.5

ORD: +3.0

ATL: +5.0

IAH: +5.5

DEN: +3.0

PHX: +4.0

SEA: +2.0

[Prestige Worldwide]

DCA +4.9

NYC +3.5

BOS +4.2

ORD +1.8

ATL +7.3

IAH +3.1

DEN +1.1

PHX +2.2

SEA +1.1

[Rjay]

DCA: +5.5

NYC: +5.5

BOS:  +5.5

ORD: +5.0

ATL: +5.5

IAH: +5.0

DEN:  +1.0

PHX: +1.5

SEA:  -1.0

[Stebo]

DCA: +1.7

NYC: +1.2

BOS: +0.8

ORD: +1.1

ATL: +3.0

IAH: +2.5

DEN: -1.7

PHX: 0.0

SEA: -2.5

[dmillz25]

DCA: +2.0

NYC: +1.5

BOS: +1.0

ORD: +1.0

ATL: +2.3

IAH: +2.0

DEN: +1.0

PHX: -1.0

SEA: -1.0

[Neckbeard93]

The Weather Channel recently discussed the possibility of the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic seeing a surge in clipper systems over the next couple of weeks, which I think will serve to knock the temperatures down in a lot of these spots. SW and deep SE should stay probably stay warm.  

DCA: 0.5

NYC: 1.0

BOS: 1.5

ORD: -1.0

ATL: 2.5

IAH: 4.5

DEN: 3.5

PHX: 3.0

SEA: 2.0

That being said, I'm really rooting for some colder temps across the country. Chapel Hill has seen way too many 70+ days so far this season, although what we've seen pales in comparison to Dec 2015. 

 

 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +2.1

NYC: +1.9

BOS: +1.4

ORD: +2.7

ATL: +2.7

IAH: +2.5

DEN: +1.3

PHX: +1.4

SEA: -0.2

[wxallannj]

DCA: +2.2

NYC: +2.0

BOS: +1.6

ORD: +0.7

ATL: +3.3

IAH: +2.4

DEN: +1.1

PHX: +2.4

SEA: +2.0

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA: +2.3

NYC: +2.0

BOS: +1.5

ORD :+1.4

ATL :+3.1

IAH: +3.0

DEN: +2.0

PHX: +2.0

SEA: +0.2

[donsutherland1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

2.6 ____2.0____1.3_____3.5____3.4____4.0______4.5____2.0____1.4

[bkviking]

DCA: + 2.4

NYC: +2.4

BOS: +2.7

ORD: +1.1

ATL: +2.3

IAH: +2.2

DEN: -1.1

PHX: +0.2

SEA: -1.5

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

1.0      0.5       0.5            0.5       1.5       1.5          -0.5        1.0        0.5 

[wxdude64]

After Jan disaster let us try again haha

DCA  +1.7

NYC  +1.0

BOS  +0.8

ORD  +0.3

ATL  +3.3

IAH  +3.0

DEN   0.0

PHX  +1.2

SEA  +0.2

[Tom]

DCA: +1.1

NYC: +0.9

BOS: +0.9

ORD: +1.0

ATL: +2.1

IAH: +2.1

DEN: +0.2

PHX: +1.1

SEA: -0.7

[Roger Smith]

________ --0.2 __ --0.4 __ --1.0 ____ --1.2 __ +2.5 __ +4.5 _____ +3.5 __ +3.5 __ --2.2

 

[RodneyS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

0.4      -0.3       -0.3            0.4       2.7       4.2           1.8        4.9        0.3 

---

 

 

[H2Otown_WX]

DCA...NYC...BOS ....ORD....IAH....ATL ....PHX...DEN....SEA

+2.2...+1.5...+1.6...-0.8...-0.5...+3.3.....+1.4...+0.3...-1.3

[blazess556]

DCA: +4.5

NYC: +4.3

BOS:  +4.1

ORD: +3.9

ATL: +2.7

IAH: +3.4

DEN:  +1.3

PHX: +1.1

SEA:  -1.4

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts February 2017

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Rjay ________________________+5.5 _+5.5 _+5.5 ___ +5.0 _+5.5 _+5.0 ____ +1.0 _+1.5 _--1.0

Prestige Worldwide ____________+4.9 _+3.5 _+4.2 ___ +1.8 _+7.3 _+3.1 ____ +1.1 _+2.2 _+1.1

Blazess556 __________________ +4.5 _+4.3 _+4.1 ___ +3.9 _+2.7 _+3.4 ____ +1.3 _+1.1 _--1.4

Maxim ______________________ +3.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 ___ +3.0 _+5.0 _+5.5 ____ +3.0 _+4.0 _+2.0

DonSutherland.1 _____________  +2.6 _+2.0 _+1.3 ___ +3.5 _+3.4 _+4.0 ____ +4.5 _+2.0 _+1.4

BKViking ____________________ +2.4 _+2.4 _+2.7 ___ +1.1 _+2.3 _+2.2 ____ --1.1 _+0.2 _--1.5

Damage in Tolland ____________ +2.3 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___ +1.4 _+3.1 _+3.0 ____ +2.0 _+2.0 _+0.2

wxallannj ____________________+2.2 _+2.0 _+1.6 ___ +0.7 _+3.3 _+2.4 ____ +1.1 _+2.4 _+2.0

H2OTown_Wx ________________+2.2 _+1.5 _+1.6 ___ --0.8 _+3.3 _--0.5 ____ +0.3 _+1.4 _--1.3

hudsonvalley21 _______________ +2.1 _+1.9 _+1.4 ___ +2.7 _+2.7 _+2.5 ____ +1.3 _+1.4 _--0.2

 

Consensus ___________________ +2.1 _+1.5 _+1.4 ___ +1.0 _+2.7 _+3.0 ____ +1.1 _+1.4 _--0.2

 

dmillz25 _____________________ +2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+2.3 _+2.0 ____ +1.0 _--1.0 _--1.0

so_whats_happening __________  +1.8 _+1.2 _+1.0 ___ +1.8 _+2.1 _+2.6 ____ +1.0 _+1.1 _--0.8

Stebo _______________________ +1.7 _+1.2 _+0.8 ___ +1.1 _+3.0 _+2.5 ____ --1.7 __0.0 _--2.5

wxdude64 ___________________ +1.7 _+1.0 _+0.8 ___ +0.3 _+3.3 _+3.0 _____ 0.0 _+1.2 _+0.2

Tom ________________________ +1.1 _+0.9 _+0.9 ___ +1.0 _+2.1 _+2.1 ____ +0.2 _+1.1 _--0.7

SD __________________________+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____ --0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5

Neckbeard93 _________________ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ --1.0 _+2.5 _+4.5 ____ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.0

RodneyS _____________________+0.4 _--0.3 _--0.3 ___ +0.4 _+2.7 _+4.2 ____ +1.8 _+4.9 _+0.3

 

Normal _______________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ______ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

 

Roger Smith __________________--0.2 _--0.4 _--1.0 ___ --1.2 _+2.5 _+4.5 ____ +3.5 _+3.5 _--2.2

_____________________________________________________________________

 

With 19 forecasts, the consensus (median) is 10th ranked. Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded.

Welcome to Neckbeard93 and good luck everyone. 

(edit note: Feb 14, while entering data to excel file, noticed out of order DEN, PHX for H2OTown_Wx, had earlier spotted out of order IAH, ATL ... have edited in the correct values in the table and as it happens due to tied ranked forecasts neither error changed consensus)

[Roger Smith]

... 80 deg at DEN on 10th !! ... (at) Houston, we have a problem.

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

__________ (7d) ________+6.2 _+2.8 _ +4.1 ___ +4.0 _ +7.6 _+11.7___ +5.9 _ +2.8 _--6.3

_________ (10d) ________+6.2 _+2.5 _ +1.1 ___ +2.4 _ +7.3 _+11.3___+10.5_ +4.3 _--4.5

_________ (12d) ________+6.6 _+2.5 _ --0.1 ___ +4.3 _ +8.7 _+13.0___+10.4_+5.1 _--3.8

_________ (14d) ________+5.8 _+2.1 _ --0.5 ___ +5.2 _ +8.6 _+12.6___ +9.7_+5.3 _--2.7

_________ (16d) ________+5.4 _+2.0 _ --0.4 ___ +5.2 _ +7.9 _+10.8___+11.0_+5.3 _--1.6

_________ (18d) ________+5.4 _+2.3 _ --0.1 ___ +7.1 _ +7.9 _+10.2___+11.3_+5.0 _--1.1

_________ (20d) ________+6.6 _+3.8 _ +1.2 ___ +8.9 _ +8.4 _+10.2___+11.5_+4.2 _--1.1

_________ (21d) ________+6.8 _+3.8 _ +1.2 ___ +9.8 _ +8.7 _+10.3___+12.0_+4.1 _--1.0

_________ (22d) ________+7.1 _+4.3 _ +1.8 ___+10.7 _ +9.0 _+10.2___+11.9_+4.2 _--1.2

_________ (23d) ________+7.8 _+4.8 _ +2.6 ___+11.0 _ +9.3 _+10.2___+11.0_+3.7 _--1.3

_________ (24d) ________+8.5 _+5.8 _ +3.6 ___+10.8 _ +9.6 _+10.3___+10.0_+3.2 _--1.5

_________ (25d) ________+8.9 _+6.2 _ +4.5 ___+10.2 _ +9.5 _ +9.9____ +9.3_+2.9 _--1.6

_________ (26d) ________+8.6 _+6.1 _ +4.6 ___+10.0 _ +9.1 _ +9.5____ +8.6_+2.7 _--1.8

_________ (27d) ________+8.4 _+6.1 _ +4.7 ___ +9.9 _ +8.9 _ +9.8____ +8.3_+2.4 _--2.0

 

_________ (28d) ________+8.7_+6.3_+4.9___+10.3_ +8.9_+10.0___ +7.8_+2.2_--2.1

 

Snowfall to Feb 28 ________ 1.4 _ 20.5 _ 36.3 ____ 18.3 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 19.3 __ 0.0 _ 11.2

__________________________________________________________________ SEA 0.1" 27th

Final anomalies are shown in bold, as of 1215z they are all confirmed.  

[Roger Smith]

Final scores for February 2017

These scores are based on the confirmed anomalies posted in the countdown in the post above.

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS____east____ORD_ATL_IAH____cent____ TOTAL

 

Rjay ______________________68 _ 92 _ 88 ____248 ____49 _ 66 _ 50 ____165 _____413

Prestige Worldwide __________61 _ 57 _ 86 ____ 204 ____ 18 _ 84_ 31 ____ 133 _____ 337 

Blazess556 _________________53 _ 73 _ 84 ____ 210 ____ 38 _ 27 _ 34 ____ 099 _____ 309

Maxim ____________________ 30 _ 47 _ 52 ____ 129 ____ 29 _ 61 _ 55 ____ 145 _____ 274

DonSutherland.1 ___________  26 _ 27 _ 28 ____ 081 ____ 34 _ 34 _ 40 ____ 108 _____ 189 

BKViking __________________ 24 _ 35 _ 56 ____ 115 ____ 11 _ 23 _ 22 ____ 056 _____ 171

Damage in Tolland __________ 23 _ 27 _ 32 ____ 082 ____ 14 _ 31 _ 30 ____ 075 _____ 157 

hudsonvalley21 _____________21 _ 25 _ 30 ____ 076 ____ 26 _ 27 _ 25 ____ 078 _____ 154

wxallannj __________________22 _ 27 _ 34 ____ 083 ____ 07 _ 33 _ 24 ____ 064 _____ 147 

 

Consensus _________________21 _ 17 _ 30 ____ 068 ____ 11 _ 27 _ 30 ____ 068 _____ 136

 

Neckbeard93 _______________05 _ 10 _ 32 ____ 047 ____ 00 _ 25 _ 45 ____ 070 _____ 117

so_whats_happening ________ 18 _ 12 _ 22 ____ 052 ____ 18 _ 21 _ 26 ____ 065 _____ 117

Stebo _____________________17 _ 12 _ 18 ____ 047 ____ 11 _ 30 _ 25 ____ 066 _____ 113

dmillz25 ___________________20 _ 17 _ 22 ____ 059 ____ 10 _ 23 _ 20 ____ 053 _____ 112

wxdude64 _________________ 17 _ 10 _ 18 ____ 045 ____ 03 _ 33 _ 30 ____ 066 _____ 111

H2OTown_Wx ______________22 _ 17 _ 34 ____ 073 ____ 00 _ 33 _ 00 ____ 033 _____ 106

Tom ______________________11 _ 09 _ 20 ____ 040 ____ 10 _ 21 _ 21 ____ 052 _____ 092

RodneyS __________________ 04 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 004 ____ 04 _ 27 _ 42 ____ 073 _____ 077

Roger Smith ________________00 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 000 ____ 00 _ 25 _ 45 ____ 070 _____ 070

SD _______________________ 10 _ 05 _ 12 ____ 027 ____ 05 _ 15 _ 15 ____ 035 _____ 062

 

Normal ____________________00 _ 00 _ 02 ____ 002 ____ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 000 _____ 002

 

 

Final scoring for western and all nine contests Feb 2017

 

FORECASTER ______________ DEN_PHX_SEA _____ TOTAL _______ all nine (=rank)

 

Roger Smith ________________42 _ 74 _ 98_______214 _________ 284 (= 9)

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 62 _ 96 _ 30 _______188 _________ 377 (= 5)

blazess556 _________________13 _ 78 _ 86 _______ 177 _________ 486 (= 2)

Rjay ______________________ 10 _ 86 _ 78 _______ 174 _________587 (= 1)
 

H20Town_wx _______________03 _ 84 _ 84 _______ 171 _________ 277 (=11)

Damage in Tolland __________ 20 _ 96 _ 54 _______ 170 _________ 327 (= 6)

so_whats_happening ________ 10 _ 78 _ 74 _______ 162 _________ 279 (=10)

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 13 _ 84 _ 62 _______ 159 _________ 313 (= 8)

 

Consensus _________________ 11 _ 84 _ 62 _______ 157 _________ 293 (= 9)

 

Tom ______________________02 _ 78 _ 72 _______ 152 _________ 244 (=16)

BKViking __________________ 00 _ 60 _ 88 _______ 148 _________ 319 (= 7)

Stebo _____________________00 _ 56 _ 92 _______ 148 _________ 261 (=13t)

Prestige Worldwide __________11 _100_ 36 _______ 147 _________ 484 (= 4)

Neckbeard93 _______________42 _ 84 _ 18 _______ 144 _________ 261 (=13t)

wxdude64 _________________ 00 _ 80 _ 54 _______ 134 _________ 245 (=15)

wxallannj __________________11 _ 96 _ 18 _______ 125 _________ 272 (=12)

dmillz25 ___________________10 _ 36 _ 78 _______ 124 _________ 236 (=17)

SD _______________________ 00 _ 76 _ 48 _______ 124 _________ 186 (=19)

RodneyS __________________ 18 _ 46 _ 52 _______ 116 _________ 193 (=18)

Maxim ____________________ 32 _ 64 _ 18 _______ 114 _________ 388 (= 3)

 

Normal ____________________00 _ 56 _ 58 _______ 114 _________ 116 (=20)

 

 

 

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

(most extreme or second ranked must be high score to qualify, it's a loss for extreme forecast when second ranked wins -- only a win is counted when extreme forecast wins).

 

DCA (+8.7)  finished as a win for Rjay (+5.5)

NYC (+6.3) also finished as a win for Rjay (+5.5).

BOS (+4.9) was a last-out win for Rjay (+5.5) who was slightly closer at the end than Prestige (+4.2).

ORD (+10.3)  win for Rjay (+5.0).

ATL (+8.9)  win for Prestige Worldwide (+7.3)

IAH (+10.0) win for Maxim (+5.5)

DEN (+7.8) win for DonSutherland.1 (+4.5)

PHX  will not qualify.

SEA (-2.1) would be a win for Roger Smith (-2.2) and a loss for Stebo (-2.5).

This summary will be left here but standings including January updated in a separate post.

 

[Maxim]

ORD is gonna finish above +10, lol.

[Roger Smith]

 

Yes, I have updated the provisionals and scores have generally taken a tumble, looking at ORD I had them to +11 after 24th then they fall off a bit, still may make +10 but definitely close. ATL and IAH also looking closer to finishing at +10. DEN will take a hit starting on the 24th (according to current models anyway). 

 

[donsutherland1]

On 2/19/2017 at 0:26 PM, Maxim said:

ORD is gonna finish above +10, lol.

It's been a remarkable month there.

[Roger Smith]

SUMMARY OF UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING

--- top 5 standings(details follow in next post) ---

 

(All nine forecasts) -- con 599

Rjay 965, DonSutherland.1 836, Prestige Worldwide 815, blazess556 791, Maxim 726.

(Eastern + Central) -- con 206

Rjay 503, Prestige Worldwide 452, blazess556 400, DonSutherland.1 392, Maxim 386.

(Western) -- con 393

Rjay 462, DonSutherland.1 444, Roger Smith 412, blazess556 391, Stebo 390.

Rather telling that consensus is higher for half the number of forecasts in the western portion as compared to the six "original" stations where so far the consensus score per location is only 17.3 (65.3 in the west).

[Roger Smith]

 

<<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (Jan-Feb) ---=--- >>>

... (see post 23 for Feb scoring)

Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. Example, RJay had best scores for DCA, NYC, and ORD (in Feb) and also for the central total (in Feb), and was high score for Feb. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Meanwhile, best total scores are highlighted in red for locations, and in bold italic for groups and all six.

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__cent___TOTAL__Best scores

 

1 RJay ________________87 _108_ 98__293 ___ 59 _ 86 _ 65 __210 ___503 __ 111.100..1..1 _ Feb

2 Prestige Worldwide____100 _ 95_ 90 __ 285 ___ 18 _118_ 31 __167 ___ 452 __ 110.010 

3 blazess556 ___________70 _ 93 _ 94 __257 ___ 40 _ 45 _ 58 __143 ___ 400 __ 001.000

4 DonSutherland.1 ______ 61 _ 59 _ 45 __165 ___ 54 _ 71 _102__227 ___ 392 __ 001.111..1..1 _ Jan 

5 Maxim _______________69 _ 63 _ 57 __189 ___ 29 _ 91 _ 77 __197 ___ 386 __ 100.001

 

6 BKViking _____________45 _ 61 _ 71 __177 ___ 11 _ 43 _ 32 __086 ___ 263 

7 Stebo _______________ 42 _ 38 _ 31 __111 ___ 11 _ 52 _ 43 __105 ___ 217 

8 dmillz25 _____________ 35 _ 33 _ 32 __100 ___ 30 _ 43 _ 35 __108 ___ 208 __ 000.100

9 hudsonvalley21 _______ 32 _ 29 _ 45 __106 ___ 27 _ 35 _ 38 __100 ___ 206

 

t9 Consensus __________ 38 _ 33 _ 37 __108 ___ 11 _ 45 _ 42 __098 ___ 206

 

10 wxallannj ___________ 29 _ 41 _ 42 __112 ___ 07 _ 51 _ 31 __089 ___ 201

11 Damage in Tolland ____25 _ 27 _ 32 __084 ___ 14 _ 36 _ 45 __095 ___ 184

12 so_whats_happening __35 _ 12 _ 22 __069 ___ 18 _ 38 _ 38 __094 ___ 163

13 wxdude64 __________ 20 _ 10 _ 18 __048 ___ 03 _ 45 _ 42 __090 ___ 138

14 H2Otown_WX _______ 33 _ 21 _ 34 __088 ___ 00 _ 47 _ 00 __047 ___ 135

15 SD ________________ 29 _ 21 _ 22 __072 ___ 05 _ 25 _ 25 __055 ___ 127

16 Neckbeard93*_______ 05 _ 10 _ 32 __047 ___ 00 _ 25 _ 45 __070 ___ 117

17 Tom _______________15 _ 09 _ 20 __044 ___ 10 _ 23 _ 26 __059 ___ 103

18 Roger Smith ________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __000 ___ 00 _ 27 _ 60 __087 ___ 087

19 RodneyS ___________ 04 _ 00 _ 00 __004 ___ 04 _ 27 _ 50 __081 ___ 085

 

20 Normal ____________ 00 _ 00 _ 02 __004 ___ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ___ 002

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests Jan-Feb 2017

 

FORECASTER _______DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 

 

 1 Rjay _____________104 _182 _176___462 __ 0 0 0 _ Jan ______ 965 ( = 1) ___ FEB

 2 DonSutherland.1 ___162 _160 _122 ___ 444 __ 2 0 0 ___________836 ( = 2) ___ JAN

 3 Roger Smith _______118 _108 _186 ___ 412 __ 0 0 1 _ Feb _____ 499 ( = 14)

 

 4 Consensus ________ 95 _162 _136 ____ 393 _________________ 599 ( = 8)

 

 4 blazess556 ________ 98^_173^_120___ 391 _________________ 794 ( = 4)

 5 Stebo _____________70 _152 _168 ____ 390 _________________ 607 ( = 7) 

 6 dmillz25 __________ 94 _128 _166 ____ 388 _________________ 596 (= 8)

 7 wxallannj _________ 73 _196 _118 ____ 387 __ 0 1 1 __________ 588 ( = 9) 

 8 BKViking __________66 _148 _168 ____ 382 _________________ 645 ( = 6)

 9 Tom _____________ 58 _170 _152 ____ 380 _________________ 483 ( = 15)

10 Damage in Tolland _ 84 _176 _116 ____ 376 _________________ 555 ( = 11)

11 wxdude64 ________ 84 _160 _128 ____ 372 _________________ 510 ( = 13)

12 Prestige Worldwide _ 83 _178 _102 ____ 363 __ 0 1 0 __________815 ( = 3)

13 so_whats_happening_86_136 _138 ____ 360 _________________ 523 ( = 12)

14 hudsonvalley21 ___ 105 _146 _104 ____ 355 _________________ 560 ( = 10)

15 RodneyS __________92 _142 _108 ____ 342 _________________ 427 ( = 18)

16 Maxim ___________116 _118 _106 ____340 _________________ 726 ( = 5)

17 H20TownWx _______91 _128 _120 ____339 _________________ 474 ( = 16)

18 SD ______________ 96 _130 _ 76 ____ 302 _________________ 429 ( = 17)

 

19 Normal ___________ 86 _130 _ 76 ____ 292 _________________ 294 ( = 19)

 

19 Neckbeard93* ______40 _ 84 _ 16 ____ 140 _________________ 259 (= 19)

_______________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

* one month missed (Jan)

^ one point deducted on these scores (late in Jan) ... will continue to track these time penalties through the year, hoping we can avoid the larger ones.

ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.

 

[Roger Smith]

Four Seasons scoring update -- winter 2016-17

As part of our contest we keep track of seasonal scoring and there's a separate award for the Four Seasons winner(s) in each contest category (original six, western and all nine). Points are awarded as follows ... 10 for first place, 7 for second place and then so on down to 1 point for each of 8th, 9th and 10th.

Consensus and Normal are not in these tables but their scores are listed at the end with the rank and points they would have had.

 

Original six (eastern and central) _____ Western ______________________ All Nine

Rank_Forecaster _ Total  _ Points ____ Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Points ___Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Pts

 1 _ _ RJay _______ 885 ___ 10 ______1 _ _ RJay ______ 674 ___ 10 _____ 1 _ _ RJay _______ 1559 _ 10

 2 _ _ Blazess556 __ 796 ___ 7 ______ 2 _ _ DonSutherland_634__ 7 ______2 _ _ Blazess556 ___1413 __ 7

 3 _ _ DonSutherland 752 ___ 6 ______ 3 _ _ dmillz25 ___ 628___ 6 ______ 3 _ _ DonSutherland 1386 __ 6

 4 _ _Maxim _______740 ___ 5 ______ 4 _ _ Blazess556 _ 617___ 5 ______ 4 _ _ Maxim ______ 1294 __ 5

 5 _ _ BKViking ____ 701 ___ 4 ______ t5 _ _ Stebo _____ 614 ___ 4 ______ 5 _ _ BKViking ____ 1276 __ 4

 6 _ _Stebo _______ 609 ___ 3 ______ t5 _ _ Tom _______610 ___ 4 ______ 6 _ _dmillz25 ____1224 __ 3

 7 _ _ Damage in T_ 605 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _ BKViking ____575 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _ Stebo _____ 1223   __ 2

 8 _ _ dmillz25 ____ 601 ___ 1 ______ 8 _ _ Damage in T_ 574 ___ 1 ______ 8 _ _ Damage in T_ 1179 __ 1

 9 _ _ wxallannj ____595 ___ 1 ______ 9 _ _ wxdude64 __ 560 ____ 1 _____t9 _ _ hudsonvalley _1124 __ 1

10 _ _ hudsonvalley_ 569 ___ 1 _____t10 _ _hudsonvalley_555 ____ 1 _____t9_ _ wxdude64 ___ 1124 __ 1

11 _ _ wxdude64___ 564 ___ - _____t10 _ _H2OTown_wx_555 ____1 _____11_ _ wxallannj ____ 1098 __ -

12 _ _ H2OTown_wx_511 ___ - ______12 _ _Maxim _____ 554 ____ - _____12_ _ H2OTown_wx_1066 __ -

13 _ _ so_whats_hap_499 ___ - _____ 13 _ _Roger Smith_ 508____- _____ 13_ _ Tom ________1037 __ -

14 _ _ RodneyS ____ 491 ___ - ______14 _ _RodneyS ____506____ - _____14_ _ so_whats_hap_1003 __ -

15 _ _ SD ________  459 ___ - ______15 _ _so_whats_hap 504____ - _____15_ _ RodneyS _____ 997 __ -

16 _ _ Prestige WW _452* ___ - ______16 _ _wxallannj __ 503_____- _____16_ _ SD __________ 935 __ -

17 _ _ Tom _______ 427 ____ - ______17 _ _SD ________476 ____ - _____17_ _ Roger Smith ___865 __ -

18 _ _ Roger Smith _ 357 ___ - ______18 _ _Prestige WW_363*____ - _____18_ _ Prestige WW__ 815* _ -

 

 7_ _ Consensus __ 608 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _Consensus __ 583 ____ 2 _____ 8_ _ Consensus ___ 1191 __ 1

19 _ _ Normal_____ 324 ___ - ______18 _ _Normal _____446 ____ - _____19_ _ Normal ______ 770 __ -

 

* Prestige Worldwide missed Dec 2016, ranked 2nd, 13th and 3rd for Jan-Feb.

[so_whats_happening]

Looks like I just need to go stronger with anoms given now two months of the same. I figured they would be above average just not this though lol