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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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3 hours ago, CooL said:

west based blocking as well, euro/EPS have it as well.. it's time to get excited about mid feb

Yup, whenever I see a PNA ridge centered over Boise, ID with a block curling back into Greenland and a hint of split flow/southern energy...it's game on. It's usually pretty easy to see when the pattern supports a HECS. It'll be interesting to see if the northern energy can either split up and phase into the trough or move northeast a bit. Right now the only thing stopping a monster Nor'easter is the massive 50/50 low which is pressing down on the pattern yielding more of a Southern Slider.

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22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With some of the guidance suggesting that Wednesday could see the temperature reach 60° or above and Thursday pick up measurable snowfall, I took a look at past cases where Central Park had a 60° or warmer day followed by measurable snowfall. Such days are infrequent, but not rare. The most recent one occurred earlier this winter (January 13). A snapshot follows:

Central Park’s Measurable Snowfall Events following Days with High Temperatures of 60° or Above (1890-Present):

Summary:
Number of events: 33
Mean snowfall: 1.3”
Median snowfall: 1.0”
Biggest snowfall: 5.5”
Most recent event: January 13, 2017 62°, January 14 snowfall: 0.6”

Distribution by Month:
January: 3 (9%)
February 4 (12%)
March: 13 (39%)
April: 2 (6%)
October: 1 (3%)
November: 6 (18%)
December: 4 (12%)

Distribution by Snowfall:
Less than 0.5”: 9 (27%)
Less than 1.0”: 16 (48%)  
1.0” or more: 17 (52%)
2.0” or more: 6 (18%)
3.0” or more: 3 (9%)
4.0” or more: 2 (6%)
5.0” or more: 2 (6%)

Biggest Daily Snowfall following 60° Days:
1.    5.5”, January 28, 1952 and March 16, 2007
2.    3.3”, February 2, 1916
3.    2.9”, November 29, 1995
4.    2.5”, November 29, 1896
5.    2.3”, November 9, 1892

5 Warmest Temperatures Preceding Dates with Measurable Snowfall:
1.    75°, February 25, 1930 (followed by 0.4” snow)
2.    71°, April 8, 2000 (followed by 1.2” snow)
3.    69°, November 18, 1896 (followed by 2.5” snow)
4.    68°, March 6, 1935 (followed by 0.6” snow) and November 25, 2014 (followed by 0.2” snow)
5.    67°, March 25, 1926 (followed by 0.3” snow); March 15, 2007 (followed by 5.5” snow); and, December 15, 2008 (followed by 1.0” snow)

Winters with the most 60° Days followed by Measurable Snowfall:
Winter 1918-19 and 1999-00, 2

 

Don, thanks for the great set of stats. All our snow events this winter were also close to the warmest days.

NYC stats

12-17...2.8"

12-18...58

12-27...60

12-30...T

1-7...6.3"

1-12...66

1-14...0.6"

1-26...56

1-31...1.0"

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Don, thanks for the great set of stats. All our snow events this winter were also close to the warmest days.

NYC stats

12-17...2.8"

12-18...58

12-27...60

12-30...T

1-7...6.3"

1-12...66

1-14...0.6"

1-26...56

1-31...1.0"

They were, and this one will be no exception. Should tomorrow reach 60°, which seems quite likely, this will winter will become only the 3rd on record to have had measurable snowfalls that followed 60° days on two occasions. The AO-/PNA+ pattern has seen a number of moderate or significant storms during the first half of February when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was < 0°C, so until that changes there might be opportunity for another snowfall.

 

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March 14th, 1967 it was 63 degrees...The next afternoon sleet and snow accumulated to almost 3" that night...Feb. 2nd 67 set a record high (since broken) of 58 degrees and by 7pm it was snowing...Feb. 3-4, 1970 was 56 at midnight and the early morning hours of the 4th...by midnight it was snowing with a temp of 20 degrees...major ice accumulated with 2.8" of snow on top...January 9th, 1965 was in the 50's...The next morning heavy snow was falling...The January 10th 65 event could be a good analog for now...

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3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

March 14th, 1967 it was 63 degrees...The next afternoon sleet and snow accumulated to almost 3" that night...Feb. 2nd 67 set a record high (since broken) of 58 degrees and by 7pm it was snowing...Feb. 3-4, 1970 was 56 at midnight and the early morning hours of the 4th...by midnight it was snowing with a temp of 20 degrees...major ice accumulated with 2.8" of snow on top...January 9th, 1965 was in the 50's...The next morning heavy snow was falling...The January 10th 65 event could be a good analog for now...

Thanks!

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

They were, and this one will be no exception. Should tomorrow reach 60°, which seems quite likely, this will winter will become only the 3rd on record to have had measurable snowfalls that followed 60° days on two occasions. The AO-/PNA+ pattern has seen a number of moderate or significant storms during the first half of February when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was < 0°C, so until that changes there might be opportunity for another snowfall.

 

Yeah, all this extra background warmth and moisture provides plenty of fuel for these snowstorms.

The favorable blocking intervals and storm tracks are the other piece of the puzzle needed for our snow.

 

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if the ao gets to -5 big things could happen...these days when the ao gets to -5 or lower we get a big snowstorm that winter...every winter that reached that level of a negative ao had or will have a near or below zero day or a KU  snowstorm...we might not need it to go that negative for a good snowfall...it was -1 yesterday for the first time this winter and now we have a possible storm in two days..................................................

From last year's ao post.......................

winter.......AO min. date...

1976-77...-7.433...01/15/1977...coldest winter in memory...-2 min...

1969-70...-6.365...03/05/1970...second coldest winter for its time...KU in December...3 min...

1984-85...-6.226...01/19/1985...cold January...-2 min...

2009-10...-5.821...12/21/2009...KU in December and two in February...

2012-13...-5.688...03/20/2013...KU in February...

1977-78...-5.291...02/05/1978...KU January and February...

1968-69...-5.282...02/13/1969...KU February...

2010-11...-5.172...12/18/2010...KU December and January...

1965-66...-5.130...01/28/1966...KU January...

1962-63...-5.010...01/21/1963...very cold winter...-2 min...

2015-16...-4.916...01/17/2016...KU in January...-1 in February...

2000-01...-4.854...02/25/2001...KU December...

 

ao 2 7 17.gif

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While we wait for the snowstorm that should follow near-record to record warmth, below are some record high temperatures that have been set today:

Baltimore: 69° (old record: 64°, 1904)

Lynchburg: 71° (old record: 69°, 2009)

Richmond: 73° (old record: 70°, 2008)

Roanoke: 71° (old record: 68°, 2009)

Sterling (IAD): 68° (old record: 65°, 2009)

Washington, DC (DCA): 69° (old record: 64°, 2008)

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Final readings for select cities with record temperatures:

Baltimore: 72° (old record: 64°, 1904)

Lynchburg: 72° (old record: 69°, 2009)

Raleigh: 76° (tied record set in 1904)

Richmond: 74° (old record: 70°, 2008)

Roanoke: 73° (old record: 68°, 2009)

Sterling (IAD): 72° (old record: 65°, 2009)

Washington, DC (DCA): 73° (old record: 64°, 2008)

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14 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

GFS has our mid month snowstorm

I like the potential with a -AO, +PNA and very favorable MJO.

I thought we had a window of opportunity for snowfalls until just after mid-month. Should the AO go as severely negative as forecast, opportunity could extend well beyond mid-month. Things are a lot more exciting now.

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I thought we had a window of opportunity for snowfalls until just after mid-month. Should the AO go as severely negative as forecast, opportunity could extend well beyond mid-month. Things are a lot more exciting now.

Why would the AO tanking very negatively significantly extend the cold and snow , does it have longer-term effects the more negative it gets?

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54 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

Why would the AO tanking very negatively significantly extend the cold and snow , does it have longer-term effects the more negative it gets?

many times when the AO was at its winter lowest it either snowed or was very cold around that date...Last year the AO tanked to almost -5 on 1/17 and a week later we had a huge snowstorm...years with snow or cold around the ao minimum date...

1949-50......-2.854.....3/15/50......1.4" 3/14...record cold the beginning of the month...
1950-51......-4.353.....12/27/50....3" snow 12/27 and 9 degrees...the biggest snow and coldest temperature of the winter...
1951-52......-3.805.....3/4/1952....4" snow 3/2...
1952-53......-3.766.....12/27/52....12 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season...4" snow 12/31...
1955-56......-4.564.....2/15/56......1.4" 2/17 and 2/22...Big March snows.....
1957-58......-4.030.....3/11/58......snow storms 3/14 and 3/21...
1959-60......-4.108.....1/28/60......18 degrees 2/3 is the coldest temp for Feb...Big March cold and snow...
1960-61......-2.719.....1/10/61......greatest snowy and cold period followed 1/15-2/12...
1961-62......-4.417.....3/4/62........record cold 3/2 and the Ash Wednesday storm 3/6...
1962-63......-5.010.....1/21/63......Near record cold 1/23 and 4" snow 1/26...Biggest snow of the season...
1963-64......-4.470.....12/20/63....1.4" 12/18...6.6" 12/23-24...11 degrees 12/20 coldest for that month...January Blizzard...
1964-65......-3.973.....1/26/65......ice storm 1/24 and continued cold...
1965-66......-5.130.....1/28/66......8 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season 1/28...storm 7" on 1/30...
1966-67......-4.147.....12/13/66....wet snow and rain 12/13-14 is the start of two weeks of snow and cold...7" snow 12/24-25...
1968-69......-5.282.....2/13/69......17 degrees 2/17 is the coldest temp for the month...15" of snow 2/9-10....
1973-74......-2.792.....12/19/73...big ice storm 12/16-17...17 degrees 12/19 is the coldest temp of the month...
1975-76......-3.262.....1/24/76......-1 degrees 1/23 is the coldest temp of the winter...1" of snow 1/23...
1976-77......-7.433.....1/15/77......-2 degrees on the 17th is the coldest temp of the winter...5" snow 1/14-15...biggest of the winter...
1977-78......-5.291.....2/5/78........10 degrees 2/5 is the coldest temperature of the season...18" snow 2/6-7...

1978-79......-4.387.....1/25/79......Very cold and snowy February....

1980-81......-4.318.....3/4/81........largest snowfall for the winter...8.6" 3/5...
1981-82......-3.804.....12/30/81...January 1982 was very cold and snowy...
1982-83......-3.410.....2/6/83........4" of snow 2/6 and 18" 2/11-12...
1983-84......-3.706.....3/13/84......record cold 3/10...7" snow 3/8-9...
1984-85......-6.226.....1/19/85.....-2 degrees 1/21 is the coldest temperature that winter...
1985-86......-3.894......2/6/86.......4.5" of snow 2/7 and 2/11...Snowiest period of the winter...
1986-87......-3.507.....3/9/87........2" snow 3/12...Near record cold 3/10...
1988-89......-0.318.....3/4/89........2.5" 3/6 and near record cold 3/7...
1989-90......-3.482.....12/10/89...One of the coldest Decembers on record...
1992-93......-2.228.....3/2/93.......Super storm 3/13...Near record cold followed...
1993-94......-3.503.....2/24/94.....2.6" 2/23...12 degrees 2/27....
1995-96......-4.353.....12/19/95...8" of snow during a very cold period...January blizzard.
1998-99......-3.856.....3/10/99......5" snow 3/14-15...17 degrees 3/8 is the coldest temp for the month...
1999-00......-2.118.....2/18/00......3" snow and ice 2/22..
2000-01......-4.854.....2/25/01......6" snow 2/22 and 17 degrees...coldest for the month...
2002-03......-3.575.....1/22/03......7 degrees 1/24 is the coldest for the winter...
2003-04......-4.387.....1/17/04......1 degree 1/16 is the coldest temp of the season...6" of snow 1/15...Dec.
2004-05......-4.337.....2/26/05......6" of snow 2/25 and 8" 2/29...
2005-06......-3.569.....12/5/05......2" snow 12/4...1" 2/6 and 6" 12/9...14 degrees 12/14 is the coldest temp of the season...
2006-07......-2.184.....2/4/07........8 degrees 2/5 is the coldest for the winter...
2007-08......-2.468.....1/2/08........12 degrees 1/3 second coldest of the winter...
2008-09......-3.178.....2/3/09........4.3" 2/5 12 degrees...
2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09...11" snow 12/19-20....16 degrees 12/18 is the coldest for the month...
2010-11......-5.172.....12/18/10...20" of snow 12/26-27...23 max on 12/14..

2012-13......-5.688.....03/20/13...3.0" of snow 3/18 and continued cold...

2013-14......-2.605.....01/27/14...5 degrees 1/22...11" of snow 1/21...21 max 1/28...

2014-15......-1.462.....03/19/15...4.5" of snow March 20th...

2015-16......-4.916.....01/17/16...first measurable snow 1/17...27" blizzard 1/23...

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5 minutes ago, uncle W said:

many times when the AO was at its winter lowest it either snowed or was very cold around that date...Last year the AO tanked to almost -5 on 1/17 and a week later we had a huge snowstorm...years with snow or cold around the ao minimum date...

1949-50......-2.854.....3/15/50......1.4" 3/14...record cold the beginning of the month...
1950-51......-4.353.....12/27/50....3" snow 12/27 and 9 degrees...the biggest snow and coldest temperature of the winter...
1951-52......-3.805.....3/4/1952....4" snow 3/2...
1952-53......-3.766.....12/27/52....12 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season...4" snow 12/31...
1955-56......-4.564.....2/15/56......1.4" 2/17 and 2/22...Big March snows.....
1957-58......-4.030.....3/11/58......snow storms 3/14 and 3/21...
1959-60......-4.108.....1/28/60......18 degrees 2/3 is the coldest temp for Feb...Big March cold and snow...
1960-61......-2.719.....1/10/61......greatest snowy and cold period followed 1/15-2/12...
1961-62......-4.417.....3/4/62........record cold 3/2 and the Ash Wednesday storm 3/6...
1962-63......-5.010.....1/21/63......Near record cold 1/23 and 4" snow 1/26...Biggest snow of the season...
1963-64......-4.470.....12/20/63....1.4" 12/18...6.6" 12/23-24...11 degrees 12/20 coldest for that month...January Blizzard...
1964-65......-3.973.....1/26/65......ice storm 1/24 and continued cold...
1965-66......-5.130.....1/28/66......8 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season 1/28...storm 7" on 1/30...
1966-67......-4.147.....12/13/66....wet snow and rain 12/13-14 is the start of two weeks of snow and cold...7" snow 12/24-25...
1968-69......-5.282.....2/13/69......17 degrees 2/17 is the coldest temp for the month...15" of snow 2/9-10....
1973-74......-2.792.....12/19/73...big ice storm 12/16-17...17 degrees 12/19 is the coldest temp of the month...
1975-76......-3.262.....1/24/76......-1 degrees 1/23 is the coldest temp of the winter...1" of snow 1/23...
1976-77......-7.433.....1/15/77......-2 degrees on the 17th is the coldest temp of the winter...5" snow 1/14-15...biggest of the winter...
1977-78......-5.291.....2/5/78........10 degrees 2/5 is the coldest temperature of the season...18" snow 2/6-7...

1978-79......-4.387.....1/25/79......Very cold and snowy February....

1980-81......-4.318.....3/4/81........largest snowfall for the winter...8.6" 3/5...
1981-82......-3.804.....12/30/81...January 1982 was very cold and snowy...
1982-83......-3.410.....2/6/83........4" of snow 2/6 and 18" 2/11-12...
1983-84......-3.706.....3/13/84......record cold 3/10...7" snow 3/8-9...
1984-85......-6.226.....1/19/85.....-2 degrees 1/21 is the coldest temperature that winter...
1985-86......-3.894......2/6/86.......4.5" of snow 2/7 and 2/11...Snowiest period of the winter...
1986-87......-3.507.....3/9/87........2" snow 3/12...Near record cold 3/10...
1988-89......-0.318.....3/4/89........2.5" 3/6 and near record cold 3/7...
1989-90......-3.482.....12/10/89...One of the coldest Decembers on record...
1992-93......-2.228.....3/2/93.......Super storm 3/13...Near record cold followed...
1993-94......-3.503.....2/24/94.....2.6" 2/23...12 degrees 2/27....
1995-96......-4.353.....12/19/95...8" of snow during a very cold period...January blizzard.
1998-99......-3.856.....3/10/99......5" snow 3/14-15...17 degrees 3/8 is the coldest temp for the month...
1999-00......-2.118.....2/18/00......3" snow and ice 2/22..
2000-01......-4.854.....2/25/01......6" snow 2/22 and 17 degrees...coldest for the month...
2002-03......-3.575.....1/22/03......7 degrees 1/24 is the coldest for the winter...
2003-04......-4.387.....1/17/04......1 degree 1/16 is the coldest temp of the season...6" of snow 1/15...Dec.
2004-05......-4.337.....2/26/05......6" of snow 2/25 and 8" 2/29...
2005-06......-3.569.....12/5/05......2" snow 12/4...1" 2/6 and 6" 12/9...14 degrees 12/14 is the coldest temp of the season...
2006-07......-2.184.....2/4/07........8 degrees 2/5 is the coldest for the winter...
2007-08......-2.468.....1/2/08........12 degrees 1/3 second coldest of the winter...
2008-09......-3.178.....2/3/09........4.3" 2/5 12 degrees...
2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09...11" snow 12/19-20....16 degrees 12/18 is the coldest for the month...
2010-11......-5.172.....12/18/10...20" of snow 12/26-27...23 max on 12/14..

2012-13......-5.688.....03/20/13...3.0" of snow 3/18 and continued cold...

2013-14......-2.605.....01/27/14...5 degrees 1/22...11" of snow 1/21...21 max 1/28...

2014-15......-1.462.....03/19/15...4.5" of snow March 20th...

2015-16......-4.916.....01/17/16...first measurable snow 1/17...27" blizzard 1/23...

Just amazed how linear the relationship is between the - NAO in the cold in the snow. Thank you very much for the research Don

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3 hours ago, nyblizz44 said:

Why would the AO tanking very negatively significantly extend the cold and snow , does it have longer-term effects the more negative it gets?

In general, a negative AO promotes a more meridional (north-south oriented) flow. This allows more cold to move into North America and storms to ride up the coast rather than east-west out to sea.

The following link provides a good illustration (the AO- is shown on the right of the bottom diagram): https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/arctic-meteorology/weather_climate_patterns.html#arctic_oscillation

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17 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Amazingly obvious where the warm front is at this moment:

 

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=40.75&lon=-74.00&radar=1

 

Nearly 20 degree temperature differences within a few miles (ie-Freehold is at 56 and Colts Neck is at 40)

Once the warm front breaks through, and I still think it will for the City and nearby suburbs, there could be a very sharp rise in the temperature e.g., 10°-15° over a few hours. Last night, Philadelphia saw the temperature rise 20° in a single hour.

PHLTemp02072017.jpg

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10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Once the warm front breaks through, and I still think it will for the City and nearby suburbs, there could be a very sharp rise in the temperature e.g., 10°-15° over a few hours. Last night, Philadelphia saw the temperature rise 20° in a single hour.

PHLTemp02072017.jpg

Impressive! I always find these things interesting.  A bit OT but fascinating tidbit - The fastest ever temperature increase occurred in Spearfish, SD:

 

Spearfish holds the world record for the fastest  recorded temperature change. On January 22, 1943 at about 7:30 a.m. MST, the temperature in Spearfish was −4°F (−20°C). The Chinook wind picked up speed rapidly, and two minutes later (7:32 a.m.) the temperature was +45 °F (+7 °C) above zero.

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Same pattern this winter as last in regard to only needing short intervals of cold in a mild pattern to produce our snowstorms.

Two days of nothing special cold are all that will be needed this time around to produce a really nice snowstorm for us.

It's a first to get two winters in a row like this. Next window of opportunity will be in about a week  with the second AO dip.

 

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   2/08/2017  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 WED  08| THU 09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15 CLIMO
 X/N  61| 31  34| 19  30| 29  44| 40  49| 40  45| 35  42| 28  40 26 41

eps_ao_00.png

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3 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

Impressive! I always find these things interesting.  A bit OT but fascinating tidbit - The fastest ever temperature increase occurred in Spearfish, SD:

 

Spearfish holds the world record for the fastest  recorded temperature change. On January 22, 1943 at about 7:30 a.m. MST, the temperature in Spearfish was −4°F (−20°C). The Chinook wind picked up speed rapidly, and two minutes later (7:32 a.m.) the temperature was +45 °F (+7 °C) above zero.

That was an extraordinary event. I suspect that there had been strong radiational cooling before the chinook set in.

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