February 2017 Discussion & Observations

[Stormlover74]

First time nyc dropped below 25 since January 10th

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 22 here. 

[donsutherland1]

For several days, the ensembles have been forecasting the development of an AO-/NAO+ pattern toward mid-February. The development of such a pattern has often been a precursor to the shifting of the largest area of cold anomalies into Eurasia. Below is the 2/4 0z GFS ensemble forecast for 312 hours and the composite for AO-/NAO+ patterns with a lag of 5 days for the second half of February. If such developments unfold, the idea of a warmer than normal second half with only transient shots of cold could be favored. Right now, I still believe that is the most likely outcome for much of the second half of February.

[uncle W]

todays ao forecast is still for it to go negative...most members approach -3 in the forecast...The nao continues to be positive as far as the eye can see...The pna looks like it stays positive...2 of the three indices are in our favor as we go forward...an ao of -3 isn't that significant like last years -5 before the blizzard but still a good sign..twt...

[MJO812]

[psv88]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I've seen that same map reported on 3 boards now. Using an opp run to forecast a 15 day pattern is ill advised. Come on. We should know better. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

The long range op GFS Lol

[IrishRob17]

55 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I've seen that same map reported on 3 boards now. Using an opp run to forecast a 15 day pattern is ill advised. Come on. We should know better. 

3 different weather boards?  Intervention time perhaps? 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

3 different weather boards?  Intervention time perhaps? 

Lol. Most people on here are on multiple boards. Some are on 4 or 5.

[pazzo83]

I wonder what the record is in NYC for consecutive months hitting 60F.

[uncle W]

6 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

I wonder what the record is in NYC for consecutive months hitting 60F.

looks like 3/98 to 12/2000

monthly and annual temperature extremes for Central Park...

............January...February.....March.......April..........May........June........July......August....September October November December Annual
year.....max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min
1876....68 12.......56 05.......66 09......69 29......87 36......92 49.......98 61......93 57......87 49.......74 32........73 19........49 03......98 05
1877....47 11.......58 17.......57 10......76 30......88 37......89 52.......92 58......90 64......85 48.......76 38........68 24........59 20......92 11
1878....51 07.......56 07.......69 13......76 42......84 40......89 49.......94 63......90 59......90 45.......80 39........60 29........60 13......94 07
1879....52 -4........52 09.......69 18......76 25......86 42......92 47.......98 58......92 55......87 43.......85 29........76 16........64 10......98 -4...95.5.....4.8

1880....65 17.......69 07.......72 14......80 26......96 35......94 48.......91 59......89 55......89 50.......79 35........68 13........49 -6.......96 -6
1881....41 01.......53 -3........54 22......81 21......93 39......88 49.......90 62......96 56....101 53.......87 34........68 23........67 18.....101 -3
1882....49 -6........58 13.......64 18......73 27......80 38......92 55.......93 58......90 57......87 48.......75 42........69 20........51 10......93 -6
1883....45 01.......54 13.......60 08......68 25......82 42......91 56.......95 58......89 55......79 43.......80 35........68 21........55 -1.......95 -1
1884....48 04.......56 04.......63 05......69 32......86 42......91 49.......90 61......91 57......91 52.......82 33........61 24........59 -3.......91 -3
1885....60 05.......46 -2........58 07......81 27......87 42......92 51.......99 59......91 50......84 44.......73 35........69 25........60 15......99 -2
1886....54 02.......52 -4........62 08......84 30......86 44......84 52.......94 59......90 53......87 45.......78 33........71 27........55 13......94 -4
1887....62 04.......63 13.......49 15......79 24......87 45......91 52.......96 64......89 51......85 40.......77 29........64 17........58 11......96 04
1888....54 00.......52 01.......58 06......83 28......84 40......96 51.......89 54......94 53......80 40.......66 33........72 17........55 09......96 00
1889....57 15.......49 03.......61 25......78 34......91 42......91 52.......89 58......87 55......82 46.......73 32........63 25........64 13......91 03...95.2....-1.8

1890....64 15.......68 16.......71 07......79 29......81 41......90 54.......98 55......91 52......88 45.......75 37........69 19........49 13......98 07
1891....54 17.......59 14.......58 09......80 29......82 32......97 54.......90 60......98 59......91 54.......86 35........64 14........66 14......98 09
1892....59 09.......50 14.......56 17......80 31......81 42......95 58.......97 57......93 60......84 49.......76 37........67 25........58 11......97 09
1893....52 01.......54 05.......50 15......72 35......85 43......95 54.......94 56......93 56......82 44.......78 34........60 26........59 13......95 01
1894....57 16.......50 01.......67 20......75 25......85 46......93 48.......96 56......87 53......93 43.......70 39........65 23........60 08......96 01
1895....51 11.......46 -4........58 15......86 31......96 39......96 54.......95 57......92 52......97 47.......70 37........72 26........60 13......97 -4
1896....49 -2........57 -5........60 14......90 24......92 45......92 52.......93 60......98 57......89 46.......72 36........72 29........57 09......98 -5
1897....55 06.......51 19.......60 19......77 24......81 40......89 49.......93 64......89 61......93 45.......87 39........68 23........63 17......93 06
1898....56 10.......58 08.......69 26......74 26......86 40......94 54......100 57......93 59......93 52.......81 41........66 25........57 13....100 08
1899....53 07.......53 -6........63 19......78 28......88 48......95 57.......95 59......94 60......86 45.......79 38........64 31........59 09......95 -6...96.7.....2.6

1900....57 10.......57 05.......55 11......74 30......90 40......92 55.......97 56......96 59......92 50.......80 38........74 30........59 04......97 04
1901....53 08.......42 14.......53 12......80 36......85 44......95 53.....100 61......92 63......88 47.......75 38........60 19........60 17....100 08
1902....51 13.......54 14.......67 23......84 37......86 38......88 50.......90 60......89 57......87 50.......74 39........69 34........55 08......90 08
1903....51 10.......62 04.......70 28......82 29......89 37......81 52.......95 57......89 54......88 47.......76 36........70 19........54 11......95 04
1904....54 -1........53 02.......65 15......72 27......89 46......93 53.......94 59......88 55......86 41.......79 32........60 23........51 12......94 -1
1905....53 04.......41 06.......73 14......75 33......81 41......91 52.......96 63......92 60......88 47.......82 39........64 20........59 20......96 04
1906....62 14.......58 08.......55 16......77 32......90 44......94 54.......92 60......94 65......90 50.......74 40........65 29........59 12......94 12
1907....64 04.......47 06.......74 18......74 28......85 40......90 48.......91 64......92 59......86 49.......74 36........61 33........57 22......92 04
1908....50 08.......52 01.......72 19......79 28......88 44......94 55.......96 63......94 55......81 52.......80 40........62 28........64 24......96 01
1909....57 05.......56 08.......64 23......80 24......83 41......93 55.......93 57......92 57......82 51.......77 37........73 31........53 06......93 05...94.7.....4.9

1910....48 05.......56 01.......78 25......80 37......82 48......90 50.......94 64......86 57......92 57.......84 37........63 29........54 11......94 01
1911....56 18.......51 14.......64 13......77 24......86 37......88 58.....100 60......94 55......86 46.......73 38........69 25........63 19....100 13
1912....54 -3........59 -1........68 15......79 29......89 45......94 51.......97 59......92 51......91 39.......81 40........72 28........64 18......97 -3
1913....63 18.......62 11.......77 12......82 33......89 36......93 49.......95 58......95 60......86 45.......77 34........72 30........58 19......95 11
1914....58 -5........53 -3........73 15......82 27......95 40......92 49.......91 56......94 60......95 42.......83 33........76 22........64 03......95 -5
1915....58 12.......58 13.......59 19......92 29......79 43......90 47.......93 59......89 55......94 45.......79 37........71 31........57 13......94 12
1916....69 07.......60 02.......65 07......70 32......81 44......84 51.......94 60......95 56......93 44.......86 40........71 25........63 17......95 07
1917....51 08.......55 00.......62 20......83 28......84 38......89 55.....100 59......98 58......84 43.......73 32........63 19........47 -13...100 -13
1918....53 -4........59 -6........76 17......78 32......91 43......94 49.......98 57....104 59......81 46.......78 41........66 30........63 22....104 -6
1919....61 10.......52 17.......67 24......73 22......92 43......95 52.......99 60......91 57......93 49.......87 39........72 28........61 -1.......99 -1...97.3.....1.6

1920....51 -1........47 -2........71 13......76 28......82 39......94 50.......91 55......91 57......88 45.......84 37........69 25........58 16......94 -2
1921....57 04.......62 10.......84 26......79 29......89 43......95 53.......95 62......95 55......96 56.......77 35........73 30........59 07......96 04
1922....50 07.......64 -2........76 17......86 32......85 44......91 52.......92 60......94 53......93 44.......89 33........67 28........57 12......94 -2
1923....53 09.......44 07.......76 10......87 12......86 37......98 53.......99 59......92 51......86 48.......74 39........65 29........64 23......99 07
1924....57 05.......46 10.......66 24......73 27......75 44......91 51.......95 57......99 55......95 46.......81 34........71 19........61 11......99 05
1925....45 -2........62 12.......71 11......84 32......91 41......99 54.......94 56......92 54......88 46.......77 29........67 25........58 08......99 -2
1926....54 05.......51 08.......67 13......82 27......83 40......89 48.....100 56......96 57......89 50.......82 36........66 24........49 08....100 05
1927....52 -1........56 22.......69 18......90 33......79 44......89 50.......92 54......83 54......92 50.......90 43........73 27........68 15......92 -1
1928....58 12.......55 07.......69 18......80 29......79 41......86 54.......94 60......94 60......85 43.......86 32........73 22........60 19......94 07
1929....62 08.......56 15.......77 12......89 34......93 42......95 45.......95 55......92 57......99 44.......74 35........76 12........56 13......99 08...96.6.....2.9

1930....64 10.......75 07.......63 18......76 31......91 45......94 50.....102 57......96 55......88 52.......78 36........66 15........58 10....102 07
1931....56 11.......56 12.......58 29......71 35......93 40......97 55.......97 64......99 61......99 49.......86 42........73 30........68 20......99 11
1932....70 24.......58 18.......63 15......78 32......90 42......92 47.......92 59......91 62......96 42.......79 40........61 12........63 11......96 11
1933....61 13.......60 11.......59 16......78 33......90 46......97 48.....102 54....100 60......90 52.......78 32........69 17........55 -6.....102 -6
1934....58 06.......42 -15......71 13......77 34......90 46....101 56.......98 62......89 52......87 51.......77 36........74 26........61 11....101 -15
1935....58 -1........59 04.......77 18......82 32......89 43......89 55.......95 62......93 55......82 43.......77 38........73 24........56 08......95 -1
1936....54 -3........51 01.......70 17......81 30......92 44......90 54.....106 60......96 59......91 46.......77 28........75 17........63 13....106 -3
1937....66 25.......57 14.......61 19......72 34......93 45......93 56.....100 58......95 57......93 45.......79 34........67 28........63 18....100 14
1938....57 06.......60 12.......77 09......89 28......81 41......90 47.......93 57......96 62......86 51.......90 42........78 16........61 19......96 06
1939....55 06.......69 14.......73 16......86 30......96 43......94 56.......94 59......94 62......88 48.......91 35........67 29........61 13......96 06...99.3.....3.3

1940....54 07.......54 15.......63 16......67 26......83 44......94 52.......98 57......90 52......92 42.......80 30........71 25........62 11......98 07
1941....47 10.......49 14.......58 15......87 36......96 39......98 54.......98 62......97 55......93 46.......94 37........72 31........62 14......98 10
1942....57 05.......52 06.......69 33......91 33......92 47......89 52.......97 59......93 54......93 42.......84 38........74 26........58 -4.......97 -4
1943....56 10.......63 -8........72 07......78 24......89 41......99 56.......93 52......94 56......91 46.......83 40........66 26........57 10......99 -8
1944....62 12.......60 13.......62 16......80 26......92 47......93 50.......94 61....102 56......97 50.......88 36........69 29........53 12....102 12
1945....55 02.......58 15.......86 26......83 35......84 41......97 44.......96 58......93 53......91 44.......80 38........72 25........54 10......97 02
1946....62 05.......63 12.......79 26......78 34......87 43......91 47.......94 56......89 53......90 47.......87 45........71 30........70 16......94 05
1947....63 12.......50 07.......63 21......79 33......86 35......90 52.......94 60......95 60......89 41.......85 36........61 27........58 17......95 07
1948....45 00.......59 06.......74 09......75 32......87 45......92 52.......94 59....103 60......89 49.......80 36........74 33........58 10....103 00
1949....61 20.......73 17.......75 18......79 36......92 45......96 52.....102 62....100 55......87 48.......88 42........74 23........63 21....102 17...98.5.....4.8

1950....72 16.......51 06.......67 11......76 26......82 40......95 48.......94 60......88 57......87 41.......86 38........84 28........60 09......95 06
1951....64 11.......64 11.......62 24......84 37......90 45......89 51.......94 61......91 56......85 41.......84 42........68 22........64 08......94 08
1952....60 08.......51 17.......64 23......82 34......83 43....100 58.......97 62......90 54......94 52.......80 33........73 28........59 12....100 08
1953....57 21.......67 14.......67 18......77 35......90 44......97 51.....101 57....100 59....102 49.......82 40........73 30........63 15....102 14
1954....56 07.......71 11.......68 22......78 23......85 42......92 54.....100 60......92 58......88 49.......87 38........64 32........61 16....100 07
1955....50 13.......61 00.......71 19......84 33......90 41......88 51.....100 65....100 61......83 50.......83 41........68 16........53 05....100 00
1956....48 14.......59 14.......63 18......84 33......89 38......99 53.......93 57......93 58......87 41.......84 38........71 22........67 16......99 14
1957....60 00.......60 18.......69 24......85 33......87 39......96 51.....101 57......95 57......91 41.......79 35........66 28........59 18....101 00
1958....51 12.......49 03.......57 27......78 29......82 42......89 49.......93 63......91 58......89 46.......83 39........65 18........55 12......93 03
1959....61 14.......52 07.......71 20......83 34......94 43......97 53.......90 62......91 58......93 46.......88 36........73 21........56 09......97 07...98.1.....6.7

1960....54 17.......65 18.......70 14......87 35......82 42......89 55.......91 60......91 58......90 54.......82 38........69 30........64 08......91 08
1961....55 05.......65 -2........73 18......82 34......85 41......96 53.......97 62......93 57......95 49.......84 40........78 31........58 14......97 -2
1962....56 11.......56 04.......79 11......91 34......99 42......93 54.......96 57......91 56......88 42.......85 34........62 28........68 04......99 04
1963....51 04.......51 -2........79 26......81 34......86 38......96 54.......98 54......88 53......87 40.......83 38........69 34........55 11......98 -2
1964....55 09.......52 19.......75 22......86 28......94 43......99 51.......99 61......92 54......92 48.......78 33........71 24........60 17......99 09
1965....55 09.......61 13.......61 21......80 29......94 46......95 52.......93 58......91 50......92 44.......81 32........71 31........63 18......95 09
1966....62 08.......58 08.......67 25......73 34......85 36....101 52.....103 61......94 61......91 46.......78 36........70 31........66 14....103 08
1967....68 13.......60 04.......72 08......81 29......81 39......96 48.......90 60......90 58......87 45.......86 35........65 20........62 20......96 04
1968....50 -1........49 05.......76 15......82 32......80 42......94 53.......98 60......94 57......87 53.......85 36........77 32........60 09......98 -1
1969....48 11.......44 17.......70 19......86 29......97 47......96 55.......96 60......94 58......93 51.......80 31........67 26........60 14......91 11...97.3.....4.8

1970....51 03.......57 09.......56 20......82 31......93 38......91 57.......94 65......94 62......94 47.......80 36........67 21........66 17......94 03
1971....46 04.......66 06.......69 26......76 33......85 45......93 55.......96 64......92 55......91 49.......78 45........75 26........63 20......96 04
1972....62 05.......62 09.......73 17......86 26......86 45......86 46.......94 56......94 57......92 50.......74 32........68 21........61 19......94 05
1973....66 10.......58 07.......66 30......86 33......82 41......95 58.......94 58......98 59......96 47.......82 41........77 30........66 17......98 07
1974....66 06.......61 11.......70 20......89 28......92 40......95 52.......95 59......92 59......88 43.......77 31........81 26........56 26......95 06
1975....63 15.......58 16.......64 16......74 27......93 45......93 53.......93 58......98 57......81 46.......83 31........78 34........61 16......98 15
1976....56 -1........70 10.......72 19......96 25......83 38......92 50.......90 58......94 50......89 47.......73 29........61 17........55 09......96 -1
1977....44 -2........57 08.......81 24......90 25......92 36......88 50.....104 58......93 57......94 52.......70 40........65 29........56 13....104 -2
1978....58 12.......41 10.......65 14......82 31......90 38......91 51.......95 58......92 60......86 45.......76 36........70 24........67 19......95 10
1979....63 08.......57 00.......76 20......81 32......94 45......87 48.......95 53......95 55......90 45.......88 36........73 29........65 20......95 00...96.5.....4.7

1980....60 17.......57 12.......59 10......76 32......90 46......94 47.....102 61......97 64......96 45.......79 37........71 28........64 -1.....102 -1
1981....49 02.......68 08.......77 17......81 33......87 44......93 58.......96 62......92 59......89 47.......71 38........72 29........58 20......96 02
1982....58 00.......58 19.......60 22......82 21......84 49......87 52.......98 60......89 50......87 54.......81 38........79 27........72 17......98 00
1983....58 12.......59 14.......68 25......85 34......79 41......95 52.......98 61......96 59......99 49.......84 36........69 32........59 04......99 04
1984....57 07.......63 17.......58 13......78 35......85 43......96 49.......91 59......92 60......86 44.......79 41........69 25........70 25......96 08
1985....58 -2........75 14.......82 22......88 28......87 43......85 55.......92 61......95 62......94 49.......80 36........77 33........55 15......95 -2
1986....63 08.......48 18.......78 15......82 35......94 41......91 49.......98 55......89 50......89 45.......84 38........73 22........59 19......98 08
1987....57 08.......52 04.......76 15......77 31......97 43......96 56.......95 60......94 56......85 49.......72 37........77 18........60 08......97 04
1988....53 05.......62 09.......76 17......73 35......91 44......98 50.......99 53......99 56......84 49.......79 31........67 32........60 05......99 05
1989....61 11.......67 15.......82 13......77 34......86 43......92 58.......96 60......94 56......94 44.......76 40........70 23........53 06......96 06...97.6.....3.5

1990....66 24.......65 07.......85 13......91 33......83 44......89 50.......95 57......93 58......89 44.......84 35........78 30........62 21......95 07
1991....55 10.......70 14.......77 24......90 36......93 47......97 53.....102 63......94 62......93 44.......80 38........74 29........66 13....102 10
1992....62 11.......64 14.......64 17......81 31......93 40......87 52.......93 59......91 57......86 44.......78 34........71 29........61 19......93 11
1993....64 21.......56 07.......68 13......79 35......92 46......95 51.....102 65......94 62......93 44.......80 38........74 29........66 13....102 07
1994....55 -2........62 07.......71 21......84 34......91 44......98 54.......97 64......91 57......88 53.......75 43........76 25........65 19.......98 -2
1995....64 15.......54 06.......72 20......76 23......87 44......95 54.....102 60......96 62......91 50.......86 42........72 24........55 15....102 06
1996....56 06.......62 05.......63 11......85 33......96 42......88 54.......89 62......90 61......89 50.......76 40........69 23........63 15......96 05
1997....62 04.......72 19.......68 25......74 28......83 43......93 49.......97 58......93 60......83 48.......85 37........65 27........54 17......97 04
1998....65 14.......58 17.......86 19......73 36......87 44......92 52.......93 62......91 58......90 49.......74 42........63 36........75 17......93 14
1999....60 09.......62 14.......74 17......80 35......89 46......94 57.....101 61......98 59......83 50.......75 39........72 28........63 19....101 09...97.9.....7.1

2000....64 03.......64 19.......69 22......75 30......93 46......92 49.......89 58......90 57......84 43.......79 36........67 23........62 14......93 03
2001....54 18.......61 16.......57 24......87 34......92 43......91 50.......94 56....103 63......86 50.......81 37........75 34........71 20....103 16
2002....69 21.......63 19.......72 19......96 30......86 41......92 53.......96 51......98 60......91 54.......84 36........68 24........60 19......98 19
2003....50 07.......50 08.......69 11......88 30......79 45......93 50.......94 63......91 61......80 50.......77 36........79 29........58 21......94 07
2004....58 01.......59 15.......70 24......85 29......87 42......91 56.......87 63......90 58......87 51.......75 44........68 29........59 11......91 01
2005....66 05.......56 16.......63 16......87 37......79 41......93 54.......97 62......99 65......92 50.......80 39........72 22........55 14......99 05
2006....64 16.......62 15.......74 22......83 33......88 45......91 52.......95 61......97 60......83 49.......79 37........69 35........70 18......97 15
2007....72 09.......49 08.......78 11......86 30......91 44......91 54.......92 57......92 56......88 50.......87 38........66 26........61 20......92 08
2008....64 12.......68 10.......63 27......84 33......83 44......96 57.......96 66......90 58......90 51.......75 41........67 23........67 13......96 10
2009....47 06.......65 12.......70 12......92 34......86 43......84 50.......86 58......92 62......84 49.......74 37........69 35........66 16......92 06...95.5.....9.0

2010....57 13.......46 17.......74 29......92 40......92 41......93 57.....103 61......96 61......96 54.......75 42........65 34........60 19....103 13
2011....53 06.......67 15.......77 20......83 35......89 46......95 56.....104 63......94 59......86 51.......84 33........70 36........62 22....104 06
2012....62 13.......62 20.......78 25......88 38......89 49......94 51.....100 61......91 61......91 53.......78 38........66 31........62 28....100 13

2013....61 11.......55 17.......59 27......82 33......90 42......92 53.......98 64......90 59......96 47.......86 40........70 23........71 19......98 11

2014....58 04.......56 09.......66 13......77 31......86 49......89 55.......91 63......90 61......92 52.......77 42........68 22........65 24.....92 04

2015....56 08.......43 02.......62 12......80 32......88 48......90 50......96 54.......95 63......97 56.......78 35........74 32........72 34......97 02

2016....59 11.......61 -1........79 26......82 26......92 43......88 52......96 63.......96 61......91 54.......85 38........72 34........60 17......96 -1

2017....66 14

ave......57 08.......57 09.......68 17......81 30......88 42......93 52.......95 59......93 57......89 47.......80 37........70 26........60 13......97 04


record..72 25.......75 22.......86 33......96 42......99 49.....101 58.....106 65....104 65....102 57.......94 45........84 36........75 34.....106 19
record..41 -6.......41 -15......49 03......67 12......75 32.......81 44.......86 52......83 50......79 39.......66 28........60 07........47 -13.....90 -15

[donsutherland1]

For purposes of reference, below are record high temperatures for February 7 and February 8 from select cities:

[Animal]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

For purposes of reference, below are record high temperatures for February 7 and February 8 from select cities:

Don..thanks for the data.

NW zones don't seem as warm. My point and click is a high of 48F later in the week. mid 30's the remainder. Not a torch, but warm I guess.

Any input long range. I can no way cancel a big ticket snow event the 1st week of February for the remainder of the season.

Talk that winter is done is over is pure and utter folly.

[Animal]

On 2/3/2017 at 8:12 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

That map should change quite a bit when the new 30 years totals are calculated for 1991-2020. NYC has a good chance to be over 30 inches average snowfall per season, provided the 2010's don't end like the 1990's did, when they calculate the next 30 year average. Right now the running average at Central Park for January 1991 through January 2017 is 30.5 inches per season. Probably closer to 33-34 if they didn't under measure as much as they do.

Here's the average snowfall per month at Central Park since January 1991 through January 2017.

October......0.1
November...0.3
December...5.1
January......9.2
February...11.1
March.........4.5
April...........0.2

That map is terrible. The ridge line in my area and and western Sussex County get more. (not that past 2 years)

[bluewave]

Hopefully, we continue the seasonal pattern this week of getting snow around the times of the warmest winter temperatures.

NYC stats

12-17...2.8"

12-18...58

12-27...60

12-30...T

1-7...6.3"

1-12...66

1-14...0.6"

1-26...56

1-31...1.0"

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, Animal said:

Don..thanks for the data.

NW zones don't seem as warm. My point and click is a high of 48F later in the week. mid 30's the remainder. Not a torch, but warm I guess.

Any input long range. I can no way cancel a big ticket snow event the 1st week of February for the remainder of the season.

Talk that winter is done is over is pure and utter folly.

The way I see things right now is as follows: The window for a snowfall remains open until just after mid-month. Then, there could be a pause, especially if an EPO+/AO+ pattern develops. Then we'll see what happens from the last week of February into March.

[donsutherland1]

This morning's AO returned to negative levels (-.516) for the first time since January 1.

Date was changed now that the final monthly data is in. The preliminary value for January 13 had been slightly negative. The final value was slightly positive.

[gravitylover]

I've got random flakes falling now.

[psv88]

Moderate burst of snow. Nice sight.

[pazzo83]

It's warmer in Svalbard, Norway (nearly 80N latitude) at 43F than it is in Central Park right now (41F).

WTF

[CIK62]

Maybe cold enough to snow on about 5/15 days here:

http://www-en-6.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ts-charts?LANG=en&WMO=72503&MODELL=gefsts&VAR=tmp2&TIME=201702050600&TABLE=0&ZOOM=0

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning's AO returned to negative levels (-.516) for the first time since January 13.

Yeah, looks like we are finally getting the AO to go negative this winter with the snow potential this week.

It was the the 4th most positive Dec-Jan AO on record since 1950.

92-93...2.561

88-89...2.393

06-07...2.158

16-17...1.367

72-73...1.235

51-52...1.177

82-83...1.163

99-00...1.157

91-92...1.082

74-75...1.076

 

The EPS have a second dip mid month which will hopefully deliver another snow potential.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, looks like we are finally getting the AO to go negative this winter with the snow potential this week.

It was the the 4th most positive Dec-Jan AO on record since 1950.

92-93...2.561

88-89...2.393

06-07...2.158

16-17...1.367

72-73...1.235

51-52...1.177

82-83...1.163

99-00...1.157

91-92...1.082

74-75...1.076

 

The EPS have a second dip mid month which will hopefully deliver another snow potential.

 

 

 

All those winter is over posts were premature. 

[donsutherland1]

With some of the guidance suggesting that Wednesday could see the temperature reach 60° or above and Thursday pick up measurable snowfall, I took a look at past cases where Central Park had a 60° or warmer day followed by measurable snowfall. Such days are infrequent, but not rare. The most recent one occurred earlier this winter (January 13). A snapshot follows:

Central Park’s Measurable Snowfall Events following Days with High Temperatures of 60° or Above (1890-Present):

Summary:
Number of events: 33
Mean snowfall: 1.3”
Median snowfall: 1.0”
Biggest snowfall: 5.5”
Most recent event: January 13, 2017 62°, January 14 snowfall: 0.6”

Distribution by Month:
January: 3 (9%)
February 4 (12%)
March: 13 (39%)
April: 2 (6%)
October: 1 (3%)
November: 6 (18%)
December: 4 (12%)

Distribution by Snowfall:
Less than 0.5”: 9 (27%)
Less than 1.0”: 16 (48%)  
1.0” or more: 17 (52%)
2.0” or more: 6 (18%)
3.0” or more: 3 (9%)
4.0” or more: 2 (6%)
5.0” or more: 2 (6%)

Biggest Daily Snowfall following 60° Days:
1.    5.5”, January 28, 1952 and March 16, 2007
2.    3.3”, February 2, 1916
3.    2.9”, November 29, 1995
4.    2.5”, November 29, 1896
5.    2.3”, November 9, 1892

5 Warmest Temperatures Preceding Dates with Measurable Snowfall:
1.    75°, February 25, 1930 (followed by 0.4” snow)
2.    71°, April 8, 2000 (followed by 1.2” snow)
3.    69°, November 18, 1896 (followed by 2.5” snow)
4.    68°, March 6, 1935 (followed by 0.6” snow) and November 25, 2014 (followed by 0.2” snow)
5.    67°, March 25, 1926 (followed by 0.3” snow); March 15, 2007 (followed by 5.5” snow); and, December 15, 2008 (followed by 1.0” snow)

Winters with the most 60° Days followed by Measurable Snowfall:
Winter 1918-19 and 1999-00, 2

 

[NorthShoreWx]

On 2/3/2017 at 6:27 PM, JerseyWx said:

Honestly, I'm not quite sure of an exact figure.  Interestingly enough, on Tom's (Isotherm) map, I'm right on the border of 33-38" and 38-43."  On the Upton "Tri-State Climo" map below, I border the deep purple 35-40" area in Passaic county.  I'm right at the tip of Morris county, so it's basically the same thing.  With that said, I think 38" would be a good starting point as an average.  You've got me curious about town records/climo though, and I think rgwp96 would have a better idea.

 

I believe that much of this map is based on long term records from coop stations, many of which are missing a significant percentage of the snowfall that actually occurred.  Locally the example would be Setauket / Strongs Neck, which I believe forms the basis for at least part, if not all of the shading on the north shore of LI. 

I have snow events over many decades from multiple coop sites pasted into the same spreadsheet and when you see events side by side, the omissions at various sites become very obvious.

The little bit of darker blue (25-30 over Suffolk is a minor nod towards the OKX record (which would be 30 - 35) and possibly Bridgehampton.

I think more work went into formatting the map than vetting the data.

[JerseyWx]

9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I believe that much of this map is based on long term records from coop stations, many of which are missing a significant percentage of the snowfall that actually occurred.  Locally the example would be Setauket / Strongs Neck, which I believe forms the basis for at least part, if not all of the shading on the north shore of LI. 

I have snow events over many decades from multiple coop sites pasted into the same spreadsheet and when you see events side by side, the omissions at various sites become very obvious.

The little bit of darker blue (25-30 over Suffolk is a minor nod towards the OKX record (which would be 30 - 35) and possibly Bridgehampton.

I think more work went into formatting the map than vetting the data.

Thanks for the insight.  I agree with you, and think the map should be updated with fresh data.  Like others have mentioned, it doesn't really take local elevations into consideration either.

[NorthShoreWx]

The 30 year average at OKX/BNL (1986-87 to 2015-16) is 35.6".  The longer term average at the lab had been running 31 - 32".  Looking ahead to a 1990 - 2020 climo, the average has a very good chance of coming in higher than 35.6" although we cannot know that until it happens.  Much of the northern half of the island is similar.  

Of course, the eventual 1990 - 2020 climate norms will include a decade plus of highly inaccurate snowfall records from ISP and that will skew the record yet again (most likely for the southern half of LI, but possibly for the entire island).  There area many problems in the past with the ISP snowfall record, but one of my favorite examples (assuming it hasn't been corrected yet), is ISP showing no snowfall for the month of December 2003.  The ISP snowfall records from the 90's are generally of very poor quality.  ISP has been diligent in snowfall record keeping since about 2005.

It's understandable that operational forecasting challenges trump making accurate and pretty climo maps within a local forecast office, but I'd like to see a more accurate representation.  I'm still planning to do my own based on long term analysis, but that's a big job that has been on hold for several years.  Hopefully I can at least start to catch up on the annual maps for the past several years.  No offence to those who don't live on LI, but trying to depict the surrrounding areas accuratley greatly adds to the workload of creating those maps:  http://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateStatistics.asp

I recently put some time into the map for 2009- 2010, but its not there yet.  Way behind on these

[bluewave]

On February 6, 2017 at 9:29 AM, Snow88 said:

All those winter is over posts were premature. 

This whole winter is all about picking up the snowfall during the brief colder intervals that we get. 

Like I pointed out in earlier posts, we are doing much better in the snowfall department for how mild a winter it has been.

Top 10 warmest JFK Januaries and snowfall

1950...40.5...T

1998...39.6...0.1

1990...39.4..1.4

2006...39.1..2.1

2002...38.9...4.1

2017...38.6...11.7

1949...38.1...5.2

1975...37.9...0.6

2007...37.3...1.7

•  

 

 

[NJwx85]

00z NAM is pretty wet for tomorrow.

[nzucker]

HECS map on the 0z GFS....ridiculous PNA, 50/50 low, huge southern vort: