JerseyWx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I have even less out here in Mahwah. Wow. Yeah, it's been bad. We're kind of in the middle too. Guys up in Orange county are over 20", and so are parts of the island. Even the city stations have more than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 minute ago, JerseyWx said: Wow. Yeah, it's been bad. We're kind of in the middle too. Guys up in Orange county are over 20", and so are parts of the island. Even the city stations have more than us. Northern NJ has been in a snowhole for years now. Even the one big storm last year looked like it would miss to the South until the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Northern NJ has been in a snowhole for years now. Even the one big storm last year looked like it would miss to the South until the last minute. NE PA is in the same boat, that whole area has been terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: NE PA is in the same boat, that whole area has been terrible They need inland runners. Can't remember the last time that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 GFS is ugly, not a noteworthy event minus earl week rainstorm.... I'm ready for golf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS is ugly, not a noteworthy event minus earl week rainstorm.... I'm ready for golf the entire country is torched by PAC air. It looks like a run out of late March or early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS is ugly, not a noteworthy event minus earl week rainstorm.... I'm ready for golf I would watch the early week event for northern parts of this forum. There is potential for a significant ice storm as we know CAD is never picked up well at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Can the Hurricane season start already? This winter has been complete garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I'm ready for hurricane season just as long as it hits somebody else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 28 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I have even less out here in Mahwah. Sloatsburg, NY, up the road from you is less than 8 inches total for the entire winter so far. It's the worst I can remember. Even 2011-2012 and last winter had more snow up to this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: the entire country is torched by PAC air. It looks like a run out of late March or early April. Ugliest set of runs we have seen this winter. The long range looks like something out of April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Ugliest set of runs we have seen this winter. The long range looks like something out of April we've gone from seeing cold and snow 10 days out to not seeing it at all! Well if it ain't going to be a favorable pattern, let's torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: we've gone from seeing cold and snow 10 days out to not seeing it at all! Well if it ain't going to be a favorable pattern, let's torch. Absolutely. Hopefully the cfs is correct with the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 As just posted in the mid Atlantic forum, either this MJO forecast will be wrong or the GFS, CFS and Euro will be wrong because you can't be that warm in phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Absolutely. Hopefully the cfs is correct with the torch there's very little cold guidance left. Weeklies were warm, CFS is warm-it always is and today's OP runs are warm for the next 15 days outside of a cold day or two here and there. Transient cold, which is what we've seen all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: As just posted in the mid Atlantic forum, either this MJO forecast will be wrong or the GFS, CFS and Euro will be wrong because you can't be that warm in phase 8. The Mjo is not driving the pattern this winter. The Nina has been trumping it all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The Mjo is not driving the pattern this winter. The Nina has been trumping it all winter. one would think this is a stronger Nina....effects are strong for such a weak nina-agree on the MJO-it's been a relative non factor this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Typically, an a strong PNA+/AO- combination would more than compensate for a moderately positive EPO during the middle of February. However, the NAO is also forecast to be positive. That leads to a more muddled outlook. An EPO+/PNA+/AO-/NAO+ pattern yields two clusters of cases: one colder than normal (63% of occurrences) and one warmer than normal (37% of occurrences). The GFS ensembles are currently forecasting a pattern evolution that moves from a 500 mb pattern more commonly associated with the colder cases toward one more typically associated with the warmer cases. Should the AO fall and remain at severely negative levels (-3.000 or below), the colder cluster would be favored. However should the AO fall to less negative levels (remaining generally between -2.000 or above), the warmer situation could become more likely. Currently, the ensembles favor the development of an AO-. Even as the latest run is still fairly impressive, it represents a retreat from the consensus of two days ago where a severely negative AO was favored. The spread remains very wide, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists. For the most part, the extended range of the ensembles have had a strong negative bias. All said, I still think the first half of February will finish reasonbly close to normal (probably between 1° and 2° above normal given the warm start and possible surge of warmth as a storm passes to the north and west of the region toward the end of the first week of February and early in the second week). Afterward, there remains a distinct possibility that a warmer pattern could set in, especially if the AO does not go as negative as currently forecast and the EPO stays positive. A warm second half has been a persistent concern of mine and I cannot dismiss such an outcome at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: They need inland runners. Can't remember the last time that happened. Not really inland runners but tight coastal huggers that use to bring the I95 rain snow line. They use to be common in winters but the last one I remember was in January 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Same, 9.7" Terrible lol What do you guys average down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: I have even less out here in Mahwah. 2 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Same, 9.7" Terrible lol Most north of the NJ/NY border had a very good December which so far is the only reason most of us up here are within average ytd. Whats interesting though is that parts of sussex county are at average ytd as well.. High Point is at 32.2" for the year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 4 hours ago, snywx said: What do you guys average down there? Honestly, I'm not quite sure of an exact figure. Interestingly enough, on Tom's (Isotherm) map, I'm right on the border of 33-38" and 38-43." On the Upton "Tri-State Climo" map below, I border the deep purple 35-40" area in Passaic county. I'm right at the tip of Morris county, so it's basically the same thing. With that said, I think 38" would be a good starting point as an average. You've got me curious about town records/climo though, and I think rgwp96 would have a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Honestly, I'm not quite sure of an exact figure. Interestingly enough, on Tom's (Isotherm) map, I'm right on the border of 33-38" and 38-43." On the Upton "Tri-State Climo" map below, I border the deep purple 35-40" area in Passaic county. I'm right at the tip of Morris county, so it's basically the same thing. With that said, I think 38" would be a good starting point as an average. You've got me curious about town records/climo though, and I think rgwp96 would have a better idea. If I had to guess I would say 35-40" for you guys there.. That Upton map is decent but really doesn't reflect the changes in elevations here. The map above has me in the 45-50" range but im more or less in the 50-53" range. It also has areas in SE Orange county like Monroe, Highland Mills, Harriman etc. in the 40-45" range when most up here know thats under done by quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 GFS says I can go golfing feb 16-19 lol, 65F lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 6 hours ago, Brian5671 said: we've gone from seeing cold and snow 10 days out to not seeing it at all! Well if it ain't going to be a favorable pattern, let's torch. True. I'm no fan of cold/dry. If there's no snow anyway, let it be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 47 minutes ago, snywx said: If I had to guess I would say 35-40" for you guys there.. That Upton map is decent but really doesn't reflect the changes in elevations here. The map above has me in the 45-50" range but im more or less in the 50-53" range. It also has areas in SE Orange county like Monroe, Highland Mills, Harriman etc. in the 40-45" range when most up here know thats under done by quite a bit I agree with the 35-40." The elevation changes a lot around here, even in town, and it appears that map would "smooth" over that like you mentioned. With close to 10" this season, we're at just about 25% of average, and things certainly aren't looking good in terms of adding a lot to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 GFSx is still about +4degs. for the next 7 days: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 2 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Honestly, I'm not quite sure of an exact figure. Interestingly enough, on Tom's (Isotherm) map, I'm right on the border of 33-38" and 38-43." On the Upton "Tri-State Climo" map below, I border the deep purple 35-40" area in Passaic county. I'm right at the tip of Morris county, so it's basically the same thing. With that said, I think 38" would be a good starting point as an average. You've got me curious about town records/climo though, and I think rgwp96 would have a better idea. That map should change quite a bit when the new 30 years totals are calculated for 1991-2020. NYC has a good chance to be over 30 inches average snowfall per season, provided the 2010's don't end like the 1990's did, when they calculate the next 30 year average. Right now the running average at Central Park for January 1991 through January 2017 is 30.5 inches per season. Probably closer to 33-34 if they didn't under measure as much as they do. Here's the average snowfall per month at Central Park since January 1991 through January 2017. October......0.1 November...0.3 December...5.1 January......9.2 February...11.1 March.........4.5 April...........0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: True. I'm no fan of cold/dry. If there's no snow anyway, let it be warm. I'd have to agree. Let's keep the ocean from getting too cold. That helps with the spring severe season on the coast and of course anything tropical later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: That map should change quite a bit when the new 30 years totals are calculated for 1991-2020. NYC has a good chance to be over 30 inches average snowfall per season, provided the 2010's don't end like the 1990's did, when they calculate the next 30 year average. Right now the running average at Central Park for January 1991 through January 2017 is 30.5 inches per season. Probably closer to 33-34 if they didn't under measure as much as they do. Here's the average snowfall per month at Central Park since January 1991 through January 2017. October......0.1 November...0.3 December...5.1 January......9.2 February...11.1 March.........4.5 April...........0.2 I agree, they will definitely need to change the map a bit, and preferably add more detail. I'd like to see Mount Holly release one as well. The NYC area has done very well in the 2000's in terms of snow, disregarding a couple duds of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.