SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 The Sunday/Monday event now may be dead. Most of the guidance today trended towards that northern low being dominant and not much in the way of snow anyhow. Of course now we have a 2nd event showing mid week which has the high in much better CAD position overall but let's see if it survives the trip inside of day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Lmao wth. By then the MJO is at phase 8 with the NAO neg yeah, I've seen that modeled a bunch of times-rarely works out-we had a brief -NAO last year, but it's been largely non existent for 4 years and we just had a phase 8 MJO and we torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 CFS has about 11BN days for this month. Exclusively AN from 2/14---2/25 then a BN flourish to end the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 having a weaker cutter could mean a stronger follow up wave behind the cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: yeah, I've seen that modeled a bunch of times-rarely works out-we had a brief -NAO last year, but it's been largely non existent for 4 years and we just had a phase 8 MJO and we torched. We were not in phase 8; we were in the "circle of death." NAO has been transiently negative numerous times during some of our recent bigger winters. Prolonged -NAO can lead to suppression. All indications including mjo, pna trending robustly positive combined with a severely negative epo point towards a major east coast precip event in the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Next 7 days are going to be about +4degs. (superimposed upon rising average temp. now) http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Blinding snow squall currently. Wind just gusted to 30MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Tack on another day where we failed to reach 32F. We certainly will probably here in a couple minutes, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Got down to 15 overnight, sitting around 18 currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: Latest run of the EPS weeklies is a mild fire hose Pacific jet pattern for the whole month of February. Only transients shots of colder than normal temps lasting 2-3 days at a time. Best hope is that we can connect with a decent snow event during one of the short cold intervals. Yep. I'm beginning to think it's over for down here. We are definitely 10-12 days away from anything remotely interesting. The PAC fire hose comes back after the cold shot. I'm ready for spring. Hopefully march is warm and nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: NYC needs to go +2.4 or greater in February to maintain a top 10 warmest winter finish. February average is 35.3. Notice how many top 10 warmest winters that we have experienced since the 1990's. #1...41.5...2001-02 #2...41.0...2015-16 #3...40.5...2011-12 #4...40.1...1931-32 #5...39.6...1997-98 #6...39.2...1990-91 #7...38.7...1998-99 #8...38.5...1889-90...1948-49 .......38.2....2016-17..Dec-Jan so far #9...38.1....1952-53...2005-06 #10. 38.0...1879-80 The general warming of winters (especially the increased frequency of days with low temperatures of 40° or above) has likely increased prospects for such outcomes. Below are some numbers from New York City (winters 1980-81 to the present): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: Latest run of the EPS weeklies is a mild fire hose Pacific jet pattern for the whole month of February. Only transients shots of colder than normal temps lasting 2-3 days at a time. Best hope is that we can connect with a decent snow event during one of the short cold intervals. Going to have to get lucky with a storm or two. The idea of a 2-4 week wintry pattern is pretty much finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Going to have to get lucky with a storm or two. The idea of a 2-4 week wintry pattern is pretty much finished. Definitely hurts. I had high hopes for February. As you guys know I rely on snow for income so it's a double whammy. The one positive trend in what otherwise would be a straight rather is we have threaded the needle. That and climatology scream don't throw in the towel. lets just hope it doesn't all come together in April and we have a cold rainy spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 Funny how isotherm is the most optimistic he's been all winter and alot of people are throwing in the towel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 The chi200 propagation of the U signal is legitimate, and its circumglobal progression will mean the MJO divergence signal persists through P1-3. This implicates a retrogressing pattern. Additionally, the RW train induction attendent the U signal should further weaken the PNJ and NATL jet. Further, the w2 generation precursor signals are apparent and well documented in the literature. Of course, the possibility of base pattern maintenance exists, but there are disparities between what is transpiring now vs. the past couple of months. Also keep in mind lag time associated with the aforementioned signals. The period I have been monitoring is principally 15th and beyond for potential NAM / NAO reversal. That is still almost 2 weeks away in the poorly modelled lead, especially given coincident MJO strat evolution. Bottom line, I have been optimistic about nothing this entire winter, but now with most seemingly throwing in the towel, I see better signals than I have all winter. Whether it evolves as I think, that may or may not occur. Iso posted this in the mid atl thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Yep. I'm beginning to think it's over for down here. We are definitely 10-12 days away from anything remotely interesting. The PAC fire hose comes back after the cold shot. I'm ready for spring. Hopefully march is warm and nice Ya get winters like these. At least we got the 5-6 inches a few weeks back....we may cash in again but this winter has been meh and we were due for it. Hopefully it isn't a long term change, which we know is in the works at some point. We may have to settle for a few storms per winter or even one good one and then back to warm temps. Who knows? but our window for this year is closing. Good thing I didn't buy a new snow blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The general warming of winters (especially the increased frequency of days with low temperatures of 40° or above) has likely increased prospects for such outcomes. Below are some numbers from New York City (winters 1980-81 to the present): Thanks for that. The trends are impossible to dismiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: The chi200 propagation of the U signal is legitimate, and its circumglobal progression will mean the MJO divergence signal persists through P1-3. This implicates a retrogressing pattern. Additionally, the RW train induction attendent the U signal should further weaken the PNJ and NATL jet. Further, the w2 generation precursor signals are apparent and well documented in the literature. Of course, the possibility of base pattern maintenance exists, but there are disparities between what is transpiring now vs. the past couple of months. Also keep in mind lag time associated with the aforementioned signals. The period I have been monitoring is principally 15th and beyond for potential NAM / NAO reversal. That is still almost 2 weeks away in the poorly modelled lead, especially given coincident MJO strat evolution. Bottom line, I have been optimistic about nothing this entire winter, but now with most seemingly throwing in the towel, I see better signals than I have all winter. Whether it evolves as I think, that may or may not occur. Iso posted this in the mid atl thread Well one can never dismiss possibilities. Conditions so far have not favored us, but while the window is closing, there is still time for an event. Let's hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I do not understand why the long range modeling is showing mild temps with the MJO going into 8, PNA spiking and AO going negative. Is this purely because of the epo? Can that override everything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: The chi200 propagation of the U signal is legitimate, and its circumglobal progression will mean the MJO divergence signal persists through P1-3. This implicates a retrogressing pattern. Additionally, the RW train induction attendent the U signal should further weaken the PNJ and NATL jet. Further, the w2 generation precursor signals are apparent and well documented in the literature. Of course, the possibility of base pattern maintenance exists, but there are disparities between what is transpiring now vs. the past couple of months. Also keep in mind lag time associated with the aforementioned signals. The period I have been monitoring is principally 15th and beyond for potential NAM / NAO reversal. That is still almost 2 weeks away in the poorly modelled lead, especially given coincident MJO strat evolution. Bottom line, I have been optimistic about nothing this entire winter, but now with most seemingly throwing in the towel, I see better signals than I have all winter. Whether it evolves as I think, that may or may not occur. Iso posted this in the mid atl thread Ozone transport is also very good with an apparent intensification of the BDC. It is interesting how my thoughts have been diametrically opposed to most this winter, but I am fine with that. I would rather lean on research than vascillate with the tides of model cycles. We shall see. Nothing is guaranteed in meteorology but the signals are superior to what we have seen, and I have been optimistic about nothing this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 The weeklies have been abysmal and are merely an extrapolation of the prior EPS run. I wouldn't utilize them as substantive evidence for a LR forecast but to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: The weeklies haven't been too bad this winter at 500 mb for the first 1 to 3 weeks. You just needed to correct their cold bias since the patterns have been verifying warmer. People have been getting mad at them since the modeled cold after 3 weeks keeps getting pushed back the closer you get. Do you have the statistics? They have been pretty bad even at z500 from what I recall, beyond D16 or so. Of course, maybe they end up correct this time, potentially for the wrong reasons. But they were much worse this winter compared to last winter, probably because the strong ENSO forcing yielded an easier LR prognostication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Almost 20" of snow out here, I am sure parts of Suffolk are close to 25" by now. Not TERRIBLE by any means, just a bit below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: Almost 20" of snow out here, I am sure parts of Suffolk are close to 25" by now. Not TERRIBLE by any means, just a bit below average. Under 10" here on the season. Less than 25% of average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Under 10" here on the season. Less than 25% of average. I'm not sure if it's part of the "new" climate or just a decadal trend but areas west of the city have been doing awful. In no way should coastal Suffolk county be receiving more snow then areas 500' + elevation 30 miles inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Isotherm said: Ozone transport is also very good with an apparent intensification of the BDC. It is interesting how my thoughts have been diametrically opposed to most this winter, but I am fine with that. I would rather lean on research than vascillate with the tides of model cycles. We shall see. Nothing is guaranteed in meteorology but the signals are superior to what we have seen, and I have been optimistic about nothing this winter. You nailed this winter man. Look forward to more of your seasonal forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 by next Sunday, most of the cold air is gone again from the CONUS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Under 10" here on the season. Less than 25% of average. Same, 9.7" Terrible lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I'm not sure if it's part of the "new" climate or just a decadal trend but areas west of the city have been doing awful. In no way should coastal Suffolk county be receiving more snow then areas 500' + elevation 30 miles inland Inland areas do the best when you get a big closed low that runs up the southern Apps and redevelops just off the coast. We actually had that with the big rain storm a few weeks ago but we just didn't have the blocking to go along with it that would have locked in the cold air. Usually in that setup, the warmer air aloft eventually wins out on the immediate coast while inland areas hold on longer and get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Same, 9.7" Terrible lol I have even less out here in Mahwah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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