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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

And decedent snowfall to go with it. Those in RIC would almost certainly love to have received the snow we have, so far.

In some ways these last two winters remind me of spring in the Rockies where you can get decent snowstorms coexisting with mild temperatures. 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

In some ways these last two winters remind me of spring in the Rockies where you can get decent snowstorms coexisting with mild temperatures.

lol Denver.......

 

The thing that puts us in uncharted territory is that we've never experienced such consistent warmth at such a high latitude on the east coastal plain.  The high latitude is helping us in the snowfall department.

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16 minutes ago, Paragon said:

How much more do we have to go to be more like Norfolk/Va Beach?

Actually, we are probably closer to them than you think due to the maritime influence.  Look at average lows for our 3 winter months this year:

Dec: 33F

Jan: 33F

Feb: 34F

 

And let's look at averages (1980-2010) for ORF (Norfolk / VA Beach):

Dec: 36F

Jan: 33F

Feb: 34F

 

RIC is actually colder (1980-2010 avgs):

Dec: 31F

Jan: 28F

Feb: 31F

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1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

Actually, we are probably closer to them than you think due to the maritime influence.  Look at average lows for our 3 winter months this year:

Dec: 33F

Jan: 33F

Feb: 34F

 

And let's look at averages (1980-2010) for ORF (Norfolk / VA Beach):

Dec: 36F

Jan: 33F

Feb: 34F

 

RIC is actually colder (1980-2010 avgs):

Dec: 31F

Jan: 28F

Feb: 31F

No wonder our climate classification is like that lol.  Once our warming gets to the level of where the NC coastal area is right now is when I feel like our snowfall totals will drop off a cliff.

What we have going for us is our latitude and warmer SST that let storms bomb more quickly and draw down cold air (when available) from further north and of course the availability of more moisture.

 

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12 minutes ago, Paragon said:

lol Denver.......

 

The thing that puts us in uncharted territory is that we've never experienced such consistent warmth at such a high latitude on the east coastal plain.  The high latitude is helping us in the snowfall department.

Until last year, I don't think anyone would have thought that a place like JFK could see a 40 inch seasonal snowfall with a 40 degree DJF average. This year we are following up with another near 40 degree DJF and over 20 and 30 inches in spots.

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

Until last year, I don't think anyone would have thought that a place like JFK could see a 40 inch seasonal snowfall with a 40 degree DJF average. This year we are following up with another near 40 degree DJF and over 20 and 30 inches in spots.

 

I remember you said that the only place that had that 40/40 combo on the east coast before this was Norfolk, Va.

 

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8 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I remember you said that the only place that had that 40/40 combo on the east coast before this was Norfolk, Va.

 

That's right. The 79-80 winter in Norfolk was their 2nd snowiest on record at 38.6" while the DJF average temp was 40.0.

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1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

One thing we can all agree on now though is that NYC proper is definitely in the humid subtropical climate zone.

We have met the Trewartha classification for subtropical climate in 2015 and 2016 by having 8 or more months each year with an average temperature of 50 degrees.

In the Trewartha scheme the "C" climate group encompasses Subtropical climates that have 8 or more months with a mean temperature of 10 °C (50 °F) or higher. There are only two types within the "C" or subtropical climate group, Cs which is a dry -summer or Mediterraneanclimate, and a Cf or humid Subtropical climate.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I'm starting to wonder how many more years it'll be before cold hardy palm trees can survive here. 

They already do. Windmill palms a good example. They are from the Himalayas and can handle cold to around zero. There is new construction Mediterranean style mansion up in great neck that has at least a dozen on the front yard. 

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21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

They already do. Windmill palms a good example. They are from the Himalayas and can handle cold to around zero. There is new construction Mediterranean style mansion up in great neck that has at least a dozen on the front yard. 

Do you think parts of the city could technically be in an 8a hardiness zone now (the USDA currently has the entire city and most of LI in 7b)?

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9 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Do you think parts of the city could technically be in an 8a hardiness zone now (the USDA currently has the entire city and most of LI in 7b)?

There's definitely pockets of 8a in the city. LGA is already borderline, their average annual minimum temp is 9°F, zone 8a begins at 10°F.

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1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

Large parts of the city are probably now in the 8a hardiness zone (min temp > 10F).

I've been thinking over the past few years that my town in Central NJ (Bernardsville) is really in zone 7a. I can only remember like 3 or 4 times that my area dropped below 0F over the last 12 years.

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14 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Yea, I'd say the heavily urbanized parts of the city.

A place like midtown for sure. 

Its more about sustained cold then one night below zero. A 48 hour period with temps below 20 and lots of wind is going to do allot more damage to sensitive vegetation then a few hours around zero with light winds. 

I lost most of my Crape Myrtle during 15 and it's flourished last winter despite last winter having a lower coldest temp 

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21 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

By my quick math, it looks like the avg minimum temp for the Park over the last 11 years (from 2006) is 8.42F.

BUT - at LGA, it's 10.08F.  So it would seem parts of the city are barely in the 8a zone.

If we just go by the last 10 years, I'm pretty sure that we've had more years with lows in the teens than we did with lows in the single digits.  Even some snowy years like 2009-10 had the lowest temps in the teens.

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3 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I think the Rockaways, Long Beach, & possibly Coney Island would qualify as well.

And then you have interior areas of Staten Island that fall into zone 7a.

Some of those areas radiate very well though.  For example, here in SW Nassau County my low temps are usually several degrees colder than LGA and on those radiating nights JFK is colder than NYC and LGA also.  But I still don't recall as many yearly mins in the single digits as I do the teens.  It wasn't like this back in the 80s and 90s when we clearly had way more lows in the single digits than we had in the teens.

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