RedSky Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Early bee gets the flower ^ Going to get nailed by a line of storms that looks better than anything I saw in 2016 severe season. 69F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Fog just rolled in out of nowhere. Pretty cool sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Six photos from the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon. A short time ago, there was a rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Honeybees will come out any time it's over 55 degrees approximately. For cleansing flights, especially in the winter months. Source..beekeep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Moderate rain with rather frequent thunder here in Clifton, only the second February thunderstorm here since 2001, the last one was last year. Since 1973 we have averaged one thunderstorm in February every four years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Following today, New York City's average February temperature will stand at 41.1°-41.2°. That is above the record high average of 40.9°, which was established in 2012. If the latest MOS guidance is reasonably accurate, February 2017 would finish with an average temperature of 41.4°. Even if all of the remaining MOS minimum and maximum temperature readings are all 4° too warm, February would finish with a mean temperature of 41.0°. In sum, it remains very likely that February 2017 will be the warmest February on record in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Following today, New York City's average February temperature will stand at 41.1°-41.2°. That is above the record high average of 40.9°, which was established in 2012. If the latest MOS guidance is reasonably accurate, February 2017 would finish with an average temperature of 41.4°. Even if all of the remaining MOS minimum and maximum temperature readings are all 4° too warm, February would finish with a mean temperature of 41.0°. In sum, it remains very likely that February 2017 will be the warmest February on record in NYC. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Lol and now it's snowing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 8 hours ago, Morris said: Wow The February average temperature is currently 41.1°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Frog were croaking yesterday around here...amazing how the warmth brings them out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 This is the exaggerated warmer world version of what used to pass as La Nina climo back in cooler times. The progression of coldest early getting warmer as the winter continued is typical for La Nina. But these extreme departures and record warmth are more commonl for recent warmer winter climo. Like Don and others mentioned, this extreme warmth moved NYC into the #1 spot for warmest February. Dec...+0.8 Jan...+5.4 Feb...+6.2 Winter so far ranked 6th warmest on record at 39.1 degrees. Also the first back to back top 10 warmest winters with over 20" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is the exaggerated warmer world version of what used to pass as La Nina climo back in cooler times. The progression of coldest early getting warmer as the winter continued is typical for La Nina. But these extreme departures and record warmth are more commonl for recent warmer winter climo. Like Don and others mentioned, this extreme warmth moved NYC into the #1 spot for warmest February. Dec...+0.8 Jan...+5.4 Feb...+6.2 Winter so far ranked 6th warmest on record at 39.1 degrees. Also the first back to back top 10 warmest winters with over 20" of snow. A few people mentioned that last fall, that December would likely be the coldest month of the 3 (in relation to averages) (and in this year absolutes!) They turned out to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: A few people mentioned that last fall, that December would likely be the coldest month of the 3 (in relation to averages) (and in this year absolutes!) They turned out to be right. That's the standard La Nina winter distribution of temperature departure pattern that we have seen in the past. But this extreme warmth is a new twist on an old theme. Just like many expected last December to be the warmest month of the winter since it was an El Nino. But the magnitude of the historic warmth completely crushed all expectations. It's tough using past analogs for absolute temperature range since the older stuff was in a colder era relative to today. But things like timing of when we might see warmest and coldest temperatures or best snowfall can still apply in this era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Forecasts are busting cold today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, Morris said: Forecasts are busting cold today. How so? Its 41 in central park, expected high is 44. Most places are in the low to mid 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: How so? Its 41 in central park, expected high is 44. Most places are in the low to mid 40s Busted cold by a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Some flowers from Central Park: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Some flowers from Central Park: Nice macro's Don. I like the center image, blue and yellow - together so nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: How so? Its 41 in central park, expected high is 44. Most places are in the low to mid 40s Just realized we had a midnight high of 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 12 hours ago, Brian5671 said: A few people mentioned that last fall, that December would likely be the coldest month of the 3 (in relation to averages) (and in this year absolutes!) They turned out to be right. I was one of those people who believed December would be the coldest month. I thought it would be a little more severe than +1, but everything is tilted mild in today's climate, especially with the general lack of sustained Atlantic/Arctic blocking since March 2013. I also thought March would be relatively cool, and potentially snowy, as we have seen in quite a few La Ninas/negative-neutral years such as 1960, 1967, 1984, and 2009. Doubt we get that degree of cold, but there should be a couple opportunities for snow in the Mar 5-15 period. Looks as though the window may close afterwards with a warmer second half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Great shots, Don. Here are some looking west, waiting for the line of storms yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, L.I.Pete said: Great shots, Don. Here are some looking west, waiting for the line of storms yesterday. Wonderful photos, Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Through today, February has a mean temperature of 41.1°. That it 0.2° above the current record monthly figure of 40.9°, which was established in 2012. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, the monthly average will come out near 41.4°. Winter 2016-17 has a mean temperature of 39.0°. That ranks the current winter as the 7th warmest on record. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, Winter 2016-17 will finish with a mean temperature of 39.2°, which would tie it with winter 1990-91 for the 6th warmest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Through today, February has a mean temperature of 41.1°. That it 0.2° above the current record monthly figure of 40.9°, which was established in 2012. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, the monthly average will come out near 41.4°. Winter 2016-17 has a mean temperature of 39.0°. That ranks the current winter as the 7th warmest on record. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, Winter 2016-17 will finish with a mean temperature of 39.2°, which would tie it with winter 1990-91 for the 6th warmest on record. Second winter in a row with near or over a 40 degree average which is normal for Richmond, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Second winter in a row with near or over a 40 degree average which is normal for Richmond, VA. And decedent snowfall to go with it. Those in RIC would almost certainly love to have received the snow we have, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Through today, February has a mean temperature of 41.1°. That it 0.2° above the current record monthly figure of 40.9°, which was established in 2012. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, the monthly average will come out near 41.4°. Winter 2016-17 has a mean temperature of 39.0°. That ranks the current winter as the 7th warmest on record. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, Winter 2016-17 will finish with a mean temperature of 39.2°, which would tie it with winter 1990-91 for the 6th warmest on record. Too bad someone decided to shortchange February with only 28 days, if it had the regular 30 days then we'd add to the averages with Wednesday and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: And decedent snowfall to go with it. Those in RIC would almost certainly love to have received the snow we have, so far. This is why I believe that we'll get a precipitous drop in our snowfalls once our averages get to being higher than what they are in Norfolk/Virginia Beach right now. You can still get big snowstorms at that latitude near the coast with those temps, but once south of there, the chances fall off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/26/2017 at 8:48 AM, bluewave said: That's the standard La Nina winter distribution of temperature departure pattern that we have seen in the past. But this extreme warmth is a new twist on an old theme. Just like many expected last December to be the warmest month of the winter since it was an El Nino. But the magnitude of the historic warmth completely crushed all expectations. It's tough using past analogs for absolute temperature range since the older stuff was in a colder era relative to today. But things like timing of when we might see warmest and coldest temperatures or best snowfall can still apply in this era. Funny thing is we also seem to have an altered storm track and with warmer SST so storms bomb out more quickly and have moisture available to them so when we do snow, we can get a lot more of it than in the previous climo. That's why we've been seeing these kinds of winters. Of course, one day it will reach a tipping point where the average temps will be too high for that- likely once we exceed Norfolk's climo today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Second winter in a row with near or over a 40 degree average which is normal for Richmond, VA. Having grown up near that climate, the past two winters here have definitely felt like a typical VA piedmont winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 One thing we can all agree on now though is that NYC proper is definitely in the humid subtropical climate zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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