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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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Following today, New York City's average February temperature will stand at 41.1°-41.2°. That is above the record high average of 40.9°, which was established in 2012. If the latest MOS guidance is reasonably accurate, February 2017 would finish with an average temperature of 41.4°. Even if all of the remaining MOS minimum and maximum temperature readings are all 4° too warm, February would finish with a mean temperature of 41.0°. In sum, it remains very likely that February 2017 will be the warmest February on record in NYC.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Following today, New York City's average February temperature will stand at 41.1°-41.2°. That is above the record high average of 40.9°, which was established in 2012. If the latest MOS guidance is reasonably accurate, February 2017 would finish with an average temperature of 41.4°. Even if all of the remaining MOS minimum and maximum temperature readings are all 4° too warm, February would finish with a mean temperature of 41.0°. In sum, it remains very likely that February 2017 will be the warmest February on record in NYC.

Wow

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This is the exaggerated warmer world version of what used to pass as La Nina climo back in cooler times. The progression of coldest early getting warmer as the winter continued is typical for La Nina. But these extreme departures and record warmth are more commonl for recent warmer winter climo.

Like Don and others mentioned, this extreme warmth moved NYC into the #1 spot for warmest February.

Dec...+0.8

Jan...+5.4

Feb...+6.2

Winter so far ranked 6th warmest on record at 39.1 degrees. Also the first back to back top 10 warmest winters with over 20" of snow.

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50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the exaggerated warmer world version of what used to pass as La Nina climo back in cooler times. The progression of coldest early getting warmer as the winter continued is typical for La Nina. But these extreme departures and record warmth are more commonl for recent warmer winter climo.

Like Don and others mentioned, this extreme warmth moved NYC into the #1 spot for warmest February.

Dec...+0.8

Jan...+5.4

Feb...+6.2

Winter so far ranked 6th warmest on record at 39.1 degrees. Also the first back to back top 10 warmest winters with over 20" of snow.

A few people mentioned that last fall, that December would likely be the coldest month of the 3 (in relation to averages) (and in this year absolutes!)   They turned out to be right.

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

A few people mentioned that last fall, that December would likely be the coldest month of the 3 (in relation to averages) (and in this year absolutes!)   They turned out to be right.

That's the standard La Nina winter distribution of temperature departure pattern that we have seen in the past. But this extreme warmth is a new twist on an old theme. Just like many expected last December to be the warmest month of the winter since it was an El Nino. But the magnitude of the historic warmth completely crushed all expectations. It's tough using past analogs for absolute temperature range since the older stuff was in a colder era relative to today. But things like timing of when we might see warmest and coldest temperatures or best snowfall can still apply in this era.

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12 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

A few people mentioned that last fall, that December would likely be the coldest month of the 3 (in relation to averages) (and in this year absolutes!)   They turned out to be right.

I was one of those people who believed December would be the coldest month. I thought it would be a little more severe than +1, but everything is tilted mild in today's climate, especially with the general lack of sustained Atlantic/Arctic blocking since March 2013. 

I also thought March would be relatively cool, and potentially snowy, as we have seen in quite a few La Ninas/negative-neutral years such as 1960, 1967, 1984, and 2009. Doubt we get that degree of cold, but there should be a couple opportunities for snow in the Mar 5-15 period. Looks as though the window may close afterwards with a warmer second half of the month.

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Through today, February has a mean temperature of 41.1°. That it 0.2° above the current record monthly figure of 40.9°, which was established in 2012. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, the monthly average will come out near 41.4°.

Winter 2016-17 has a mean temperature of 39.0°. That ranks the current winter as the 7th warmest on record. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, Winter 2016-17 will finish with a mean temperature of 39.2°, which would tie it with winter 1990-91 for the 6th warmest on record.

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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through today, February has a mean temperature of 41.1°. That it 0.2° above the current record monthly figure of 40.9°, which was established in 2012. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, the monthly average will come out near 41.4°.

Winter 2016-17 has a mean temperature of 39.0°. That ranks the current winter as the 7th warmest on record. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, Winter 2016-17 will finish with a mean temperature of 39.2°, which would tie it with winter 1990-91 for the 6th warmest on record.

Second winter in a row with near or over a 40 degree average which is normal for Richmond, VA. 

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11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through today, February has a mean temperature of 41.1°. That it 0.2° above the current record monthly figure of 40.9°, which was established in 2012. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, the monthly average will come out near 41.4°.

Winter 2016-17 has a mean temperature of 39.0°. That ranks the current winter as the 7th warmest on record. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, Winter 2016-17 will finish with a mean temperature of 39.2°, which would tie it with winter 1990-91 for the 6th warmest on record.

Too bad someone decided to shortchange February with only 28 days, if it had the regular 30 days then we'd add to the averages with Wednesday and Thursday.

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55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

And decedent snowfall to go with it. Those in RIC would almost certainly love to have received the snow we have, so far.

This is why I believe that we'll get a precipitous drop in our snowfalls once our averages get to being higher than what they are in Norfolk/Virginia Beach right now.  You can still get big snowstorms at that latitude near the coast with those temps, but once south of there, the chances fall off a cliff.

 

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On 2/26/2017 at 8:48 AM, bluewave said:

That's the standard La Nina winter distribution of temperature departure pattern that we have seen in the past. But this extreme warmth is a new twist on an old theme. Just like many expected last December to be the warmest month of the winter since it was an El Nino. But the magnitude of the historic warmth completely crushed all expectations. It's tough using past analogs for absolute temperature range since the older stuff was in a colder era relative to today. But things like timing of when we might see warmest and coldest temperatures or best snowfall can still apply in this era.

Funny thing is we also seem to have an altered storm track and with warmer SST so storms bomb out more quickly and have moisture available to them so when we do snow, we can get a lot more of it than in the previous climo.  That's why we've been seeing these kinds of winters.  Of course, one day it will reach a tipping point where the average temps will be too high for that- likely once we exceed Norfolk's climo today.

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