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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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16 minutes ago, tim said:

...love it when your sitting on 1 of our great ocean beaches with a 

light NW flow..its hot,sunny,the ocean is like glass..the NW wind dies to calm..its even hotter..

but wait ..its coming..you 1st see it looking at the ocean as the 'glass' turns to ripples..and a few minutes late a

REFRESHING seabreeze hits you right in the face!..love that.

I don't.....I want the NW wind to stay ;-)

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Just now, donsutherland1 said:

43.4°. The MOS is more than 3° above that figure, so it is very likely that we'll set a new February record.

So the only question is how much above that figure we'll end up.  It's a pity we didn't get 0.6" more snow in February, it would be fun to have the warmest February on record AND 10" of snow- but I suppose LGA can make that happen, no?

 

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6 minutes ago, Paragon said:

So the only question is how much above that figure we'll end up.  It's a pity we didn't get 0.6" more snow in February, it would be fun to have the warmest February on record AND 10" of snow- but I suppose LGA can make that happen, no?

 

I agree. Still, the blizzard was, by far, NYC's biggest snowfall following a 60° day. We'll probably see at least one measurable snow event in March, though I think the 0z GFS was colder than how things will play out. Overall, March still looks more likely to have a warm anomaly, especially if the second half witnesses a return to warmer than normal conditions.

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47 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Great for waves if your a surfer. Terrible for bugs if your anyone else. And during a heatwave there is nothing worse. The beach front can become dangerously hot with an offshore wind as the sand heats up like an oven

Ugh bugs? Nevermind then lol.  I was under the impression that mosquitoes and other bugs actually go away when it gets really hot and the humidity is less.  I've always seen more bugs in temps in the 80s with high humidity rather than extreme heat waves like upper 90s or higher.

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. Still, the blizzard was, by far, NYC's biggest snowfall following a 60° day. We'll probably see at least one measurable snow event in March, though I think the 0z GFS was colder than how things will play out. Overall, March still looks more likely to have a warm anomaly, especially if the second half witnesses a return to warmer than normal conditions.

I heard the Euro is getting colder too? Looks like the second week of March is when we could cash in.  Then the warmth comes back lol.  Hasn't the pattern since early January been that the second week of the month sees a moderate to major snow event and then the weather moderates for the rest of the month?

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52 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Epic 0 vissability here. Has been since last night. Pretty much as dense as I have ever seen. Can barely make out the house across the street. Dangerous to drive too 

All the streetlights had a weird halo around them this morning.

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2 hours ago, Paragon said:

I heard the Euro is getting colder too? Looks like the second week of March is when we could cash in.  Then the warmth comes back lol.  Hasn't the pattern since early January been that the second week of the month sees a moderate to major snow event and then the weather moderates for the rest of the month?

I believe that the second week of March has the best chance for a cool anomaly with the period running from the middle of the first week of the month to the middle of March perhaps having the best chance at measurable snow. The transition to warmer anomalies could begin sometime during the third week of the month. The SOI has been negative lately, and an SOI-/AO+ combination, should it develop, would favor warmth for the second half of March.

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59 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Sun is out now, feels torchy, I wasn't expecting this. Hopefully this "heating" helps us later on with that line of storms.

Full sun. 64 now and feels even warmer in the sun. Outside in the yard running around with the dog. Assuming this is how it felt yesterday on the island while I was stuck in my office. 

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2 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

Full sun. 64 now and feels even warmer in the sun. Outside in the yard running around with the dog. Assuming this is how it felt yesterday on the island while I was stuck in my office. 

Nope, several degrees warmer today where I am. 62 currently with a very light onshore wind. With the front approaching I would expect the onshore flow to increase and a possible Ambrose jet event to develope. That should knock down temps this afternoon but for right now we are warmer 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nope, several degrees warmer today where I am. 62 currently with a very light onshore wind. With the front approaching I would expect the onshore flow to increase and a possible Ambrose jet event to develope. That should knock down temps this afternoon but for right now we are warmer 

Agreed, it's warmer today and sunny.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nope, several degrees warmer today where I am. 62 currently with a very light onshore wind. With the front approaching I would expect the onshore flow to increase and a possible Ambrose jet event to develope. That should knock down temps this afternoon but for right now we are warmer 

What causes the Ambrose Jet? I mean, why doesn't develop further east like over the Hamptons lol.

Temp contrast between the ocean and the Jersey shore?

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45 minutes ago, Paragon said:

What causes the Ambrose Jet? I mean, why doesn't develop further east like over the Hamptons lol.

Temp contrast between the ocean and the Jersey shore?

I'll take a stab but it's really a question for bluewave. It's an enhanced sea breeze. It has to do with the geography of the Ny bight. It tends to peak with an approaching cold front and especially squall line. it's named after the Ambrose light tower (that giant red metal tower) that used to take Weather and sea state obs. 

It can be pretty intense and very localized. Having been a jones beach life guard for the past 18 summers I have seen it in action year after year. It can produce sustained winds over 40 and gusts over 50mph right at the beach. While just inland and to the west winds are much much lighter. Even further off shore the effects are easy to observe. If you look at wind measurements from the Texas tower buoy out by the Hudson canyon winds will be much lighter. The best way to experience the Ambrose jet is to come in from a fishing trip far offshore. Winds 20 plus miles out will be moderate and increase as you get closer to the beach till you get right within a couple miles and into full gales. 

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21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I'll take a stab but it's really a question for bluewave. It's an enhanced sea breeze. It has to do with the geography of the Ny bight. It tends to peak with an approaching cold front and especially squall line. it's named after the Ambrose light tower (that giant red metal tower) that used to take Weather and sea state obs. 

It can be pretty intense and very localized. Having been a jones beach life guard for the past 18 summers I have seen it in action year after year. It can produce sustained winds over 40 and gusts over 50mph right at the beach. While just inland and to the west winds are much much lighter. Even further off shore the effects are easy to observe. If you look at wind measurements from the Texas tower buoy out by the Hudson canyon winds will be much lighter. The best way to experience the Ambrose jet is to come in from a fishing trip far offshore. Winds 20 plus miles out will be moderate and increase as you get closer to the beach till you get right within a couple miles and into full gales. 

Is it that thing that causes those crazy winds here in May?  I remember when it's in the 70s in the city and in the 50s here and the winds are blowing crazy strong and it feels COLD.

I don't know if that kind of a thing is going to happen this year with how warm it is already.  I remember this more when we had cold winters- the last time was 2015.

 

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