PB GFI Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I'll take whatever we can get. If we can get some decent snowstorms, it will be worth it regardless of the winter temperature anomaly. The Kara ridge looks very impressive and the model consensus on that is encouraging. Don , I have lost count how many times this winter I have seen positive features in the day 7 plus only to see them disintegrate. But I guess I have to bite on the ridge here . I just hope it turns into something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: Don , I have lost count how many times this winter I have seen positive features in the day 7 plus only to see them disintegrate. But I guess I have to bite on the ridge here . I just hope it turns into something. If you think about it we have had the ridge for about a week now. It flattens out by next week so to be fair we had a week and half of it. But unfortunately we didn't capitalize on snow opportunities with the crappy Atlantic and trough position. Eps did a great job with keeping this week dry 2 weeks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: If you think about it we have had the ridge for about a week now. It flattens out by next week so to be fair we had a week and half of it. But unfortunately we didn't capitalize on snow opportunities with the crappy Atlantic and trough position. Eps did a great job with keeping this week dry 2 weeks out I am talking about the Kara sea ridge . The AO really tanks day 6 to 10 . That SE ridge never got muted like I thought . Timmy when I zigged , sht zagged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I am talking about the Kara sea ridge . The AO really tanks day 6 to 10 . That SE ridge never got muted like I thought . Timmy when I zigged , sht zagged. Oh okay. Thought you were referring to the ridge out west. It's been a rough winter for all of us. I really was high on next week for something significant. Really disappointed the pattern pretty much went to crap. Then in return we kick the can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Just now, Allsnow said: Oh okay. Thought you were referring to the ridge out west. It's been a rough winter for all of us. I really was high on next week for something significant. Really disappointed the pattern pretty much went to crap. Then in return we kick the can. Tommy killed it this year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Sorry , Don and Blue too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Just now, PB GFI said: Tommy killed it this year . Yep. Only little bit of hope I have left rests squarely on his shoulders haha. I'm looking forward to the first real spring day. Hopefully it's nice and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: It could also save March While I said I wouldn't be surprised if we got blocking in March, I definitely would not count on it at this point. Meteorological spring starts March 1 and there's a reason for that; sun angle, wavelength changes, climo working against you, etc. In 4 weeks from now time will be running out very fast for winter. I have real serious doubts about salvaging February as a cold and snowy month at this point looking at everything. As far as long range model guidance, it's been horrible all winter long, just terrible. I'm pretty confident February finishes warmer than normal and less snowy than normal. March is a wildcard at the moment, but at that point, 6 of one, half a dozen of the other.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 17 minutes ago, snowman19 said: While I said I wouldn't be surprised if we got blocking in March, I definitely would not count on it at this point. Meteorological spring starts March 1 and there's a reason for that; sun angle, wavelength changes, climo working against you, etc. In 4 weeks from now time will be running out very fast for winter. I have real serious doubts about salvaging February as a cold and snowy month at this point looking at everything. As far as long range model guidance, it's been horrible all winter long, just terrible. I'm pretty confident February finishes warmer than normal and less snowy than normal. March is a wildcard at the moment, but at that point, 6 of one, half a dozen of the other.... I've never agreed with meteorological spring starting March 1st. March averages almost the same amount of snow as December in the NYC area, so it should be considered part of meteorological winter. At least the first half of March should. Crazy that one of the snowiest months of the year isn't part of met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 44 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep. Only little bit of hope I have left rests squarely on his shoulders haha. I'm looking forward to the first real spring day. Hopefully it's nice and warm Lmao yeah he seems optimistic about the period starting next week in the strat so I'll stick with that til proven otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Perhaps this potential epic bomb will change the pattern. We've had more than a few pattern changes over the years which got started by massive cutters going up into the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 43 minutes ago, snowman19 said: While I said I wouldn't be surprised if we got blocking in March, I definitely would not count on it at this point. Meteorological spring starts March 1 and there's a reason for that; sun angle, wavelength changes, climo working against you, etc. In 4 weeks from now time will be running out very fast for winter. I have real serious doubts about salvaging February as a cold and snowy month at this point looking at everything. As far as long range model guidance, it's been horrible all winter long, just terrible. I'm pretty confident February finishes warmer than normal and less snowy than normal. March is a wildcard at the moment, but at that point, 6 of one, half a dozen of the other.... We also may be headed into an El Niño now. Historically La Niñas transitioning to El Ninos have been known to produce big March or April storms in the Eastern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 26 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I've never agreed with meteorological spring starting March 1st. March averages almost the same amount of snow as December in the NYC area, so it should be considered part of meteorological winter. At least the first half of March should. Crazy that one of the snowiest months of the year isn't part of met winter. I tend to agree with you. That's why I like astronomical dates better. March 20th or so is when you can really see Spring beginning to emerge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 31 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Perhaps this potential epic bomb will change the pattern. We've had more than a few pattern changes over the years which got started by massive cutters going up into the Lakes. I was actually wondering that myself earlier, it would be something if our coldest and snowiest period winds up being from mid February through mid March. The weather pattern has been pretty volatile this winter and the models have really had a tough time handling things even in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 After yesterday's clipper and departure from normal snowfall Knyc 11.1. -1.0 Klga 13.1. +0.2 Kjfk 15.0. +3.8 Kewr 12.7. -1.0 Kbdr 17.0. +5.0 After a torch January this isn't that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: After yesterday's clipper and departure from normal snowfall Knyc 11.1. -1.0 Klga 13.1. +0.2 Kjfk 15.0. +3.8 Kewr 12.7. -1.0 Kbdr 17.0. +5.0 After a torch January this isn't that bad It really isn't. All we would need is a nice 8-12" event or a couple 3-6" events to get close to normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 While it would be ideal to propagate upward and split through 10hpa, it isn't really necessary insofar as the induction of tropospheric blocking (primary difference would probably be a longer duration block if it splits throughout the column). Since this is a wave 2 upwelling event, positive changes at the surface are more likely to occur than waiting patiently for a typical downwelling event. This is the first time I have actually liked how the EPS look in the LR. The NAO is too far NE initially, but once it retrogrades slightly further west, the trough will be in the Northeast, regardless of the positive EPO. The PNA will improve concurrently due to tropical forcing aid. I would also target the 15th to 20th general period for something interesting. Overall, I still like what I see down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 The AO forecast is great again for another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 GFS 18z showed an interesting feature, after the cutter next week it showed a developing storm off the coast as the boundary moves east. That would be interesting because I remember a similar event I'll never forget it because it was raining all day and than it changed to heavy wet snow and it accumulated around 16 inches from what I remember maybe uncle has the stars it was about 5 years ago or so! Very nice storm! By by the way where's Anthony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Presenting the first halve of Feb. below. As for the GFSx, the first 8 days of month are a respectable +1 to +2degs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 The models are still a mess with the Sunday or Monday wave. No decisive move on whether it's more southern disturbance or northern disturbance oriented. The GFS won't budge on the Canadian low being stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The models are still a mess with the Sunday or Monday wave. No decisive move on whether it's more southern disturbance or northern disturbance oriented. The GFS won't budge on the Canadian low being stronger I'm not trusting anything beyond day 5 on any model right now-all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: After yesterday's clipper and departure from normal snowfall Knyc 11.1. -1.0 Klga 13.1. +0.2 Kjfk 15.0. +3.8 Kewr 12.7. -1.0 Kbdr 17.0. +5.0 After a torch January this isn't that bad Consider yourself lucky 75 miles west here I am running at 25% normal snowfall. A winter that has generally been favoring the interior skipped this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 39 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The models are still a mess with the Sunday or Monday wave. No decisive move on whether it's more southern disturbance or northern disturbance oriented. The GFS won't budge on the Canadian low being stronger The overall theme it seems on the models is that the northern branch and southern branch disturbances/shortwaves stay separate, no interaction or phasing and it's just a very fast moving, disjointed mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The overall theme it seems on the models is that the northern branch and southern branch disturbances/shortwaves stay separate, no interaction or phasing and it's just a very fast moving, disjointed mess makes sense. 1. Continued strong PAC Jet 2. zero Atlantic blocking to slow anything down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squid1225 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Pretty neat snow shower coming through right now in New Windsor NY... temp went from 42 to 35 and actually getting a small dusting on the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: makes sense. 1. Continued strong PAC Jet 2. zero Atlantic blocking to slow anything down. Yep agreed. The new EPS is showing exactly what I've been talking about. Massive mid-month warmup to above normal again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Yep agreed. The new EPS is showing exactly what I've been talking about. Massive mid-month warmup to above normal again fits the seasonal trend of a brief period of cold/snow followed by a torch twice as long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 Lmao wth. By then the MJO is at phase 8 with the NAO neg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Yep agreed. The new EPS is showing exactly what I've been talking about. Massive mid-month warmup to above normal again ? Do you have a 2 M Day 10 thru 15 map ? I did not see that .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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