NJwx85 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: The main point here is that it's not just total snowfall that speaks to how good or bad a Winter season is. Winter is about the landscape, arctic airmasses, windy/cold days, steel gray skies, snow cover, frozen ponds & lakes, sledding, etc. In fact, even though last Winter was horrible overall...we somehow managed to maintain nearly constant snow cover during January, with slightly below normal temps. So, at least it felt like Winter for 4-5 weeks. Still only gets a D- grade (even with the 14" snowfall pre-Thanksgiving...but it melted within 3 days, so it doesn't count for much). I speak from experience with respect to our horrendous Winter 2016-17 in the NW suburbs of Chicago - essentially zero snowfall since mid-December...and we've set record highs each of the last 4 days...and will probably set an all-time record Feb high temp tomorrow. Yes, we received around 12-15" of snow from around Dec 5-15 (which is solidly above normal for that period)...but it didn't stay on the ground very long. I don't care how much snow occurs; if you only have 10 days of Winter, the grade is an F - no two ways around it. And for the record, I don't care about climo. Yes, I know my climo...but if we get a dead-on climo winter, it's not very wintry. I have high expectations for Winter...heaven forbid, on a weather forum where Winter weather is discussed frequently. Thank you for allowing me to vent in your sub-forum. It seems the good folks in the Lakes/OV forum have already moved on to Spring... I'm more of the opinion that cold is worthless unless it's snowing. Snowpack doesn't do much for me. It's great to see how deep you can get it when you're dealing with a steady stream of storms, but the last two years significant storms have been few or far between. Then if all the snowpack isn't gone around here by Mid-March, we tend to get major river flooding problems here in NE NJ. It was in the mid 60's here on Saturday with full sun and close to 70 on Sunday. I was comfortable walking around outside in shorts and a hoodie. It was a true Spring feel and it completely erroded any thoughts of holding onto Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 We may need a thread soon for the severe weather threat on Saturday. The Euro continues to show around 750 J/KG of SBCAPE areawide with a strengthening LLJ. We're a little displaced from the greatest lift, but a surface low develops along the front on Saturday afternoon and advances right up into Central New England. If development were to occur a bit further South than what the Euro is depicting that could really enhance the localized threat level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 some March snowfalls from 3/17-3/22... 3/17/1967..........3.0" 3/16-17/1956.....6.7" 3/18-19/1956...11.6" 3/18/1949..........3.8" 3/18/2013..........3.0" 3/18/1994..........2.8" 3/18/1955..........2.7" 3/19/1992..........6.2" 3/20-21/1958...11.8" 3/20/2015..........4.5" 3/20/1965..........1.7" 3/21-22/1964.....4.9" 3/21-22/1967.....9.8" 3/22/1998..........5.0" 3/22/1992..........3.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Was at 19F at 7am went up to 46F, now I'm sitting at 41... is it spring yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 23 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Was at 19F at 7am went up to 46F, now I'm sitting at 41... is it spring yet? 24 this am, high of 46, now 39. Pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 4 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Was at 19F at 7am went up to 46F, now I'm sitting at 41... is it spring yet? 19° for a low here as well. Still have freakin snow otg here. This crap just doesn't wanna melt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 NYC is second only to 2012 and 2002 for the fewest number of days reaching freezing or lower by February 22nd. Sitting at 35 days right now which is exactly the same as last winter. 2017...35 2016...35 2012...32 2002...32 1999...37 1998...40 BTV is also second behind 2002 for the fewest days reaching 0 or lower with only 2 days. Only the 4th time there that there were fewer than 5 days by February 22nd 2017...2 2016...4 2012...3 2002..0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Can't escape these double-digit deviations yet. Next 8 days, including today, to be about +11degs. (50 vs. 39 ). No change today for the next 8, even with my liberal 39 norm. Starting Mar. 04, perhaps I can report negative negative double-digits for next 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 warm air struggling to get north at this hour-still in the 40's in Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: warm air struggling to get north at this hour-still in the 40's in Philly It's only 52 at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 37 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: It's only 52 at DCA. A rare bust low this afternoon most likely. I don't think anyone here is seeing 60 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: A rare bust low this afternoon most likely. I don't think anyone here is seeing 60 today I think we still end up beating guidance again today. The GFS MOS had a 53 degree high for LGA and the Euro raw 52. LGA is already 51 degrees at noon with more warming to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 GFS is showing a very cold pattern moving in around the 5th, but we know that long range GFS can't be trusted. But at least there is some hope for a decent period in early to mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Don't get much more of a pronounced backdoor than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 54 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: GFS is showing a very cold pattern moving in around the 5th, but we know that long range GFS can't be trusted. But at least there is some hope for a decent period in early to mid March. it has shown that all winter-a great pattern day 10+ only to crap out or be seriously muted as it moves into the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: GFS is showing a very cold pattern moving in around the 5th, but we know that long range GFS can't be trusted. But at least there is some hope for a decent period in early to mid March. its ensemble mean disagrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 We've already got some trees blooming - in February - in New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: We've already got some trees blooming - in February - in New York. Little to no cold air all winter will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Little to no cold air all winter will do it. Yea, I guess having the same # of freezing days as parts of Northern Florida do on average certainly helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 38 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: We've already got some trees blooming - in February - in New York. Mostly just the usual suspects. And believe it or not some species do bloom in February. Hellebore is a good example. What starts popping by Sunday is a whole other story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Mostly just the usual suspects. And believe it or not some species do bloom in February. Hellebore is a good example. What starts popping by Sunday is a whole other story. We have some smaller trees that are blooming with yellow flowers - happened about this time last year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 57 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: We have some smaller trees that are blooming with yellow flowers - happened about this time last year too. Forsythia probably. Another early one- but this is crazy early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 4 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Don't get much more of a pronounced backdoor than this. This map looks like it should be date stamped April 24. Not Feb 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 3 hours ago, pazzo83 said: We've already got some trees blooming - in February - in New York. That would explain allergy symptoms creeping in already. I've seen some crazy pics of blooming trees around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 4 hours ago, pazzo83 said: We have some smaller trees that are blooming with yellow flowers - happened about this time last year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Anybody know where I can get information on greenwhich Ct snowfall yearly totals through the last 10 years ? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 55 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Midtown Manhattan - 2050. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 The record warmth in front of us for the rest of February will allow many local stations to increase their top 10 warmest rankings. 2016-2017 winter rankings through 2-22 BDR...#4 LGA...#4 EWR...#7 JFK...#5 NYC..#9 ABE...#5 PHL...#5 TTN...#4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Its actually a little cooler than predicted this morning at 42, instead of closer to 50. Less cloud cover than expected must have done it. There is hardly a cloud in the sky this morning..definitely no fog here. May turn out to be wall to wall sunshine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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