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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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9 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

The main point here is that it's not just total snowfall that speaks to how good or bad a Winter season is. Winter is about the landscape, arctic airmasses, windy/cold days, steel gray skies, snow cover, frozen ponds & lakes, sledding, etc. 

In fact, even though last Winter was horrible overall...we somehow managed to maintain nearly constant snow cover during January, with slightly below normal temps.  So, at least it felt like Winter for 4-5 weeks.  Still only gets a D- grade (even with the 14" snowfall pre-Thanksgiving...but it melted within 3 days, so it doesn't count for much).

I speak from experience with respect to our horrendous Winter 2016-17 in the NW suburbs of Chicago - essentially zero snowfall since mid-December...and we've set record highs each of the last 4 days...and will probably set an all-time record Feb high temp tomorrow.  Yes, we received around 12-15" of snow from around Dec 5-15 (which is solidly above normal for that period)...but it didn't stay on the ground very long.  I don't care how much snow occurs; if you only have 10 days of Winter, the grade is an F - no two ways around it. 

And for the record, I don't care about climo.  Yes, I know my climo...but if we get a dead-on climo winter, it's not very wintry.  I have high expectations for Winter...heaven forbid, on a weather forum where Winter weather is discussed frequently.  :)

Thank you for allowing me to vent in your sub-forum.  It seems the good folks in the Lakes/OV forum have already moved on to Spring...

I'm more of the opinion that cold is worthless unless it's snowing. Snowpack doesn't do much for me. It's great to see how deep you can get it when you're dealing with a steady stream of storms, but the last two years significant storms have been few or far between. Then if all the snowpack isn't gone around here by Mid-March, we tend to get major river flooding problems here in NE NJ.

It was in the mid 60's here on Saturday with full sun and close to 70 on Sunday. I was comfortable walking around outside in shorts and a hoodie. It was a true Spring feel and it completely erroded any thoughts of holding onto Winter. 

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We may need a thread soon for the severe weather threat on Saturday. The Euro continues to show around 750 J/KG of SBCAPE areawide with a strengthening LLJ. We're a little displaced from the greatest lift, but a surface low develops along the front on Saturday afternoon and advances right up into Central New England. If development were to occur a bit further South than what the Euro is depicting that could really enhance the localized threat level. 

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some March snowfalls from 3/17-3/22...

3/17/1967..........3.0"

3/16-17/1956.....6.7"

3/18-19/1956...11.6"

3/18/1949..........3.8"

3/18/2013..........3.0"

3/18/1994..........2.8"

3/18/1955..........2.7"

3/19/1992..........6.2"

3/20-21/1958...11.8"

3/20/2015..........4.5"

3/20/1965..........1.7"

3/21-22/1964.....4.9"

3/21-22/1967.....9.8"

3/22/1998..........5.0"

3/22/1992..........3.2"

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NYC is second only to 2012 and 2002 for the fewest number of days reaching freezing or lower by February 22nd.

Sitting at 35 days right now which is exactly the same as last winter.

2017...35

2016...35

2012...32

2002...32

1999...37

1998...40

 

BTV is also second behind 2002 for the fewest days reaching 0 or lower with only 2 days.

Only the 4th time there that there were fewer than 5 days by February 22nd

2017...2

2016...4

2012...3

2002..0

 

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Can't escape these double-digit deviations yet.  Next 8 days, including today, to be about +11degs.  (50 vs. 39 ).  

 No change today for the next 8, even with my liberal 39 norm.

Starting Mar. 04, perhaps I can report negative negative double-digits for next 8 days.

 

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13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

A rare bust low this afternoon most likely.  I don't think anyone here is seeing 60 today

I think we still end up beating guidance again today. The GFS MOS had a 53 degree high for LGA and the Euro raw 52.

LGA is already 51 degrees at noon with more warming to go.

ecmwf_t2max_nj_5.png

 

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54 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

GFS is showing a very cold pattern moving in around the 5th, but we know that long range GFS can't be trusted. But at least there is some hope for a decent period in early to mid March. 

it has shown that all winter-a great pattern day 10+ only to crap out or be seriously muted as it moves into the medium range.

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Mostly just the usual suspects. And believe it or not some species do bloom in February. Hellebore is a good example. 

What starts popping by Sunday is a whole other story. 

We have some smaller trees that are blooming with yellow flowers - happened about this time last year too.

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Its actually a little cooler than predicted this morning at 42, instead of closer to 50. Less cloud cover than expected must have done it. There is hardly a cloud in the sky this morning..definitely no fog here. May turn out to be wall to wall sunshine?

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