Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Been going through some of the temps this winter in other parts of the country - INSANE. CHO in Central VA is having a winter on par with what you would see some 500 miles to the south. The high temp so far this Feb is 82F, and their avg so far this month is 60/37 (avg 49). Compare ATL avg right now is 58/39 and Charleston, SC is 64/42. In Charlotte, NC - the avg high so far this month is 65 which is about 10 deg above normal. DC's avg high this month is in the upper 50s. Unreal. Many places from the Mississippi east will have a top 5 or even top 3 warmest winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 The small amount of cold in North America was focused near the tight vortex close to the PAC NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 ^^^^ Same problem all season, a general -PNA and SE ridge. That's not going to do it for us. And no cold air in March certainly won't do it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: ^^^^ Same problem all season, a general -PNA and SE ridge. That's not going to do it for us. And no cold air in March certainly won't do it either. We were lucky that that very strong Aleutian ridge tanked the EPO for our snowstorms in December and January. The strong KB block briefly building back and dropping the -AO produced our February blizzard. Second winter in a row that we got a nice assist from that KB block. It just wasn't strong enough this winter to produce the magnitude of the 30" blizzard last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 53 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: ^^^^ Same problem all season, a general -PNA and SE ridge. That's not going to do it for us. And no cold air in March certainly won't do it either. Do what for us ? Seasonal snowfall is normal to above normal for a good portion of the NYC Metro Newark 20.6 so far - normal 20.6 - NYC 20.5 so far normal is 18.8. No cold air in March ??? FYI models are beginning to show a transient pattern that will feature - shots of cold air and also shots of warm air - the seasonal pattern so far has featured storminess during some of those colder days that has produced the normal to above normal snowfall - and this can easily happen in March and even April . Remember every year doesn't feature 30 inch snowstorms and below zero temps - look at the record books....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Do what for us ? Seasonal snowfall is normal to above normal for a good portion of the NYC Metro Newark 20.6 so far - normal 20.6 - NYC 20.5 so far normal is 18.8. No cold air in March ??? FYI models are beginning to show a transient pattern that will feature - shots of cold air and also shots of warm air - the seasonal pattern so far has featured storminess during some of those colder days that has produced the normal to above normal snowfall - and this can easily happen in March and even April . Remember every year doesn't feature 30 inch snowstorms and below zero temps - look at the record books....... Many of us are short of average snowfall this year and likely won't reach it, as the "blizzard" was a relatively minor event for us. Now I am not the expert weather wonk that most here are, and I have no crystal ball, but my instincts suggest this winter is all but over, just having observed the weather over 50 years around here. Having said that, the weather these days is extreme so even an April blizzard would not shock me, but I would bet a good amount against it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Do what for us ? Seasonal snowfall is normal to above normal for a good portion of the NYC Metro Newark 20.6 so far - normal 20.6 - NYC 20.5 so far normal is 18.8. No cold air in March ??? FYI models are beginning to show a transient pattern that will feature - shots of cold air and also shots of warm air - the seasonal pattern so far has featured storminess during some of those colder days that has produced the normal to above normal snowfall - and this can easily happen in March and even April . Remember every year doesn't feature 30 inch snowstorms and below zero temps - look at the record books....... I was talking more about a sustained wintery pattern...Like 2-3 weeks of sustained cold and snow. We didn't have that at all this year. The little cold we had was islands of cold in a sea of warmth....each time the cold showed up, you could see the warmth making its return.... we lucked out with snowfall...temperature years like this often end up with 94-95, 97-98, 01-02, 07-08, 11-12 type snowfall years (read-not much) Going into march averages climb into the 50's, you'd need some good cold to get a storm out of March especially once past the 1st 10 days. Not impossible, but I would not bet the ranch on it in a year with little to no cold air for most of the eastern CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I was talking more about a sustained wintery pattern...Like 2-3 weeks of sustained cold and snow. We didn't have that at all this year. The little cold we had was islands of cold in a sea of warmth....each time the cold showed up, you could see the warmth making its return.... we lucked out with snowfall...temperature years like this often end up with 94-95, 97-98, 01-02, 07-08, 11-12 type snowfall years (read-not much) Going into march averages climb into the 50's, you'd need some good cold to get a storm out of March especially once past the 1st 10 days. Not impossible, but I would not bet the ranch on it in a year with little to no cold air for most of the eastern CONUS The models are all retrograding the -WPO starting the second week of March, just like what has been happening all winter long, the pattern just keeps repeating over and over. Once the retrogression happens, it's hello torch again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: The latest weeklies only have a transient break in the SE ridge around March 7-9 and 11-13 before it reloads again. Exactly. Literally since December 1st, this same pattern progression has been happening non stop. It's like a broken record. It's looking very likely that the mid to late March torch will mean business. Once we see the -WPO retro, there is nothing to stop a huge SE ridge from blowing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Every indicator is against us...+AO, +NAO, -PNA, SE ridge, you name it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The small amount of cold in North America was focused near the tight vortex close to the PAC NW. The lack of expansive coverage of cold air during this La Niña winter is part of the reason I'm thinking this summer will continue a recent trend of warm summers following La Niña winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: ^^^^ Same problem all season, a general -PNA and SE ridge. That's not going to do it for us. And no cold air in March certainly won't do it either. March is actually looking quite cold...check out the 12z GFS. Cold drains into Plains first, then to Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, nzucker said: March is actually looking quite cold...check out the 12z GFS. Cold drains into Plains first, then to Northeast. It still has a parade of cutters and it's the GFS beyond day 7. Worthless most of the time. The Euro has a monster SE ridge to kick off March. I'm not buying anything more than a day or two of cold at this point based on the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, nzucker said: March is actually looking quite cold...check out the 12z GFS. Cold drains into Plains first, then to Northeast. the op gfs after day 8? seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Epo? MJO? EPO goes positive after a brief negative stint. Seasonal trend again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Epo? MJO? The MJO has done nothing, jack squat. We've been in phase 8 and it's 60 degrees. The ridge you see west of Alaska/Aleutians is a -WPO not a -EPO, which would be directly over Alaska. Once that retrogrades the torch comes right back full force Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Epo? MJO? Despite some of the highest amplitudes for Phase 8 into Phase 1, the actual weather conditions were decoupled from the cold phases of the MJO. There has been a tendency this winter for the "cold phases" of the MJO to be somewhat decoupled from temperature anomalies while the "warm phases" were consistent with the temperature anomalies. The EPO is also forecast to go positive late in the first week in March and, if the oscillations that have occurred this winter are representative, a sustained period of an EPO+ pattern could follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Since late December the EPO has been swinging between negative and positive phases that have lasted between 13-15 days. The EPO is again forecast to go negative around February 22 before returning to positive values on March 7. That would imply a 13-day period of EPO- values. My assumption is that this fairly regular oscillation will likely persist through much of March before the shortening wave lengths break this pattern. This pattern could break with either a given phase becoming longer-lasting or less stable. At the same time, the ensembles are pointing to a PNA-/AO+ pattern to begin March. That has been the predominant pattern this winter. Therefore, I suspect this pattern will last into at least a meaningful portion of March. Right now, if I had to venture a guess, March would see a predominant EPO+/PNA-/AO+ pattern in the mean values. That outcome would favor a warmer than normal March. I have little change from my earlier thinking that the second week of March has the highest probability of featuring below normal readings. Having said this, there’s still a good prospect of measurable snow at some point in March, with the period running from the middle of the first week of March to mid-month perhaps offering the greatest probability of measurable snowfall. This does not necessarily mean that March will be snowy. Below are 500 mb and surface temperature anomaly charts for EPO+/PNA-/AO+ patterns where blocking is largely non-existent for large parts of the month. It would not surprise me to see the 500 mb pattern evolve toward the composite pattern shown below, particularly after the second week of the month. In sum, my preliminary idea is that March will feature above normal temperatures in and around the New York City area. Were the SOI to feature a sustained period of negative values, that could increase prospects for a period of much warmer than normal conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Winter is done IMHO, we are basically flipping a light switch from winter (what little there was of it) right into a warmer spring pattern. I also think precipitation chances will ramp up quite a bit as well and I wouldn't be surprised if we wind up seeing a couple of major storms that produce several inch rainfalls in March and/or April plus better chances for severe weather earlier this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 here are the March's after one of the warmest winters...we could get anywhere from zero to 17" in March... 1879-80....36.5.....8.0" 1889-90....35.6...17.0"....6.0"....4.0" 1897-98....45.6.....2.0"....2.5" in April... 1905-06....35.6...11.5"....6.5"....5.0" 1908-09....37.8.....4.3"....4.0" 1912-13....44.8.....0.2" 1918-19....43.3.....2.7"....1.3"....1.4" 1931-32....37.3.....0.6" 1932-33....38.4.....4.8"....2.6" 1936-37....36.5.....2.5"....1.8" 1948-49....42.9.....4.2"....3.8" 1949-50....36.4.....1.4"....1.9" in April... 1951-52....40.2.....7.4"....4.0" 1952-53....43.4.....0.9" 1953-54....41.6.....0.1"....0.3" in April... 1974-75....40.2.....0.3" 1982-83....44.0.......T......0.8" in April... 1990-91....44.6.....0.2" 1991-92....40.0.....9.4"....6.2" 1994-95....45.0.......T..... 1996-97....41.9.....1.7" 1997-98....45.4.....5.0"....5.0" 1998-99....42.5.....4.5"....4.5" 2001-02....44.1.......T..... 2005-06....43.1.....1.3"....0.1" in April... 2006-07....42.2.....6.0"....5.5" 2011-12....50.9.......0..... 2012-13....40.1.....7.3"....4.0" 2015-16....48.9.....0.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 47 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the op gfs after day 8? seriously? The Euro Control also shows a snowstorm for NYC around 3/6. The Euro weeklies have a window of colder weather from 3/5-3/15 that could give us a moderate snowfall event. I'm not just looking at models, but also teleconnections. There is a large -EPO developing with a huge ridge over the Aleutians/Bering Sea. This drops a strong trough first into the West and High Plains, but the trough eventually slides east. We have a large pool of -30C air over Canada as the PV reorients itself into North America. I think there will be a decent stretch from March 5-15 with changes becoming evident by 3/1 as each cutter brings successively colder air down. I'm expecting the first half of March to average near to below normal in temps...if the -EPO retrogrades or weakens, it could get VERY warm by 3/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Do what for us ? Seasonal snowfall is normal to above normal for a good portion of the NYC Metro Newark 20.6 so far - normal 20.6 - NYC 20.5 so far normal is 18.8. No cold air in March ??? FYI models are beginning to show a transient pattern that will feature - shots of cold air and also shots of warm air - the seasonal pattern so far has featured storminess during some of those colder days that has produced the normal to above normal snowfall - and this can easily happen in March and even April . Remember every year doesn't feature 30 inch snowstorms and below zero temps - look at the record books....... What if I told you that I'm sitting at about 40-45% of my annual average snowfall to date? You're literally basing your assesment on two reporting stations that are less than 10 miles apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What if I told you that I'm sitting at about 40-45% of my annual average snowfall to date? You're literally basing your assesment on two reporting stations that are less than 10 miles apart. reading comprehension son - "Seasonal snowfall is normal to above normal for a good portion of the NYC Metro " - not my fault if you have been shafted so far - I could make a case for other areas of the metro who got blasted from the 2/9 storm - parts of Long Island etc . etc. Amounts are not uniform across regions 18 - 21 is a fair estimate of the average though so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: 2008 could be added to this list...had a pretty mild January/February but March saw record cold around 3/10 where I was living in Poughkeepsie, NY. That was a harsh wake-up call after a generally mild winter...mid-late April was a torch with 90 degree readings, just like 1976. 2006 also had a cold period in mid March after a relatively mild Jan/Feb....the early part of April was cold, too, with NYC reporting 0.1" to get to four straight winters of 40"+ from 02-03 thru 05-06. 1984 had the cold late with a massive storm 3/28-29/84. 2009 had a nice 10" storm in Westchester 3/1-2, then saw 75-80F readings mid month before 3/20 had more snow. I think we may see a blend of 1984, 1999, 2008, 2009, and 2011. In other words, not a ridiculously cold March but relatively cool compared to a milder February. December was +0.8F at NYC so we need to finish around normal to make March the coldest month of the DJFM period. I'm expecting the trough to slowly move east from 3/1-3/5, then the cold/snowy window from 3/5-3/15, extreme warmth around 3/20, cooler to end the month. This would be similar to 2011 which had 1.5" on 3/24, stuck around for days with a -NAO. 3/28/84 was a massive Nor'easter, few gloppy inches in NYC, a lot more inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Just now, NEG NAO said: reading comprehension son - "Seasonal snowfall is normal to above normal for a good portion of the NYC Metro " - not my fault if you have been shafted so far - I could make a case for other areas of the metro who got blasted from the 2/9 storm - parts of Long Island etc . etc. Just out of curiousity, did you check the numbers at HPN, SWF, MMU or TTN? I'm guessing that the Western 1/3rd of the metro is below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 24 minutes ago, uncle W said: here are the March's after one of the warmest winters...we could get anywhere from 0" to 17". 2011-12....50.9.......0..... What this essentially shows is you need the warmest March and April on record in order to record no snow in the 3/1-4/30 period. Those saying NYC is done are waging a war against climatology and weather history. Even last year had 0.4" with two events, one early in March and one on 3/20. A lot of places just to the south did much better in the early March storm...I was in Atlantic Heights, NJ and there was easily 3-4" glistening off the cliffs. We have seen a ton of snows around the equinox...2004 had a 6" event and an 8" event in Dobbs Ferry. 1958 also had two major snowstorms, one of 18", right around the equinox. We had 3/20 events in 2016 (coating), 2015 (4"), and 2009 (1"). 2011 had a light snowfall on 3/21. We just missed in 2013 as a 985mb low passed to the southeast. It's not until after the equinox that snowfall truly becomes a fluke. 3/20 is also when tje average high hits 50F in many of NYC's suburbs..I think it's 3/16 in the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Just out of curiousity, did you check the numbers at HPN, SWF, MMU or TTN? I'm guessing that the Western 1/3rd of the metro is below average. The main point here is that it's not just total snowfall that speaks to how good or bad a Winter season is. Winter is about the landscape, arctic airmasses, windy/cold days, steel gray skies, snow cover, frozen ponds & lakes, sledding, etc. In fact, even though last Winter was horrible overall...we somehow managed to maintain nearly constant snow cover during January, with slightly below normal temps. So, at least it felt like Winter for 4-5 weeks. Still only gets a D- grade (even with the 14" snowfall pre-Thanksgiving...but it melted within 3 days, so it doesn't count for much). I speak from experience with respect to our horrendous Winter 2016-17 in the NW suburbs of Chicago - essentially zero snowfall since mid-December...and we've set record highs each of the last 4 days...and will probably set an all-time record Feb high temp tomorrow. Yes, we received around 12-15" of snow from around Dec 5-15 (which is solidly above normal for that period)...but it didn't stay on the ground very long. I don't care how much snow occurs; if you only have 10 days of Winter, the grade is an F - no two ways around it. And for the record, I don't care about climo. Yes, I know my climo...but if we get a dead-on climo winter, it's not very wintry. I have high expectations for Winter...heaven forbid, on a weather forum where Winter weather is discussed frequently. Thank you for allowing me to vent in your sub-forum. It seems the good folks in the Lakes/OV forum have already moved on to Spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, nzucker said: What this essentially shows is you need the warmest March and April on record in order to record no snow in the 3/1-4/30 period. Those saying NYC is done are waging a war against climatology and weather history. Even last year had 0.4" with two events, one early in March and one on 3/20. A lot of places just to the south did much better in the early March storm...I was in Atlantic Heights, NJ and there was easily 3-4" glistening off the cliffs. We have seen a ton of snows around the equinox...2004 had a 6" event and an 8" event in Dobbs Ferry. 1958 also had two major snowstorms, one of 18", right around the equinox. We had 3/20 events in 2016 (coating), 2015 (4"), and 2009 (1"). 2011 had a light snowfall on 3/21. We just missed in 2013 as a 985mb low passed to the southeast. It's not until after the equinox that snowfall truly becomes a fluke. 3/20 is also when tje average high hits 50F in many of NYC's suburbs..I think it's 3/16 in the City. if you are talking light piddly events that melt by noon, sure that's possible. But it could also be in the 70's. What I doubt we see is any significant snow from here on out. But we'll see, some folks see a chance in the beginning of March. After that, well thoughts turn to spring, as they should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: if you are talking light piddly events that melt by noon, sure that's possible. But it could also be in the 70's. What I doubt we see is any significant snow from here on out. But we'll see, some folks see a chance in the beginning of March. After that, well thoughts turn to spring, as they should. I think the NYC metro area is good for one more 4"+ event as well as 1-2 smaller snowfalls. Colder air returns Sunday, 2/26, and the trough slowly migrates east. I think our best chance for a significant winter storm is from March 5-15. A -PNA makes it nearly impossible to get a MECS/HECS, but can lend itself to overrunning events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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