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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess you could also add the weak 05-06 La Nina to the list for the record January warmth.

MSP 

Jan 06....+15.5

 

That was just a one month thing though right?  I remember as far as the entire winter goes, that being a much more snowy and colder one than this winter has been.

 

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

That was just a one month thing though right?  I remember as far as the entire winter goes, that being a much more snowy and colder one than this winter has been.

 

05-06 mostly had the one big storm on Feb 12th. Besides that I remember it as pretty tame. 26.9" of Central Park's 40" came from the one storm.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite the likely peak in the late February warmth later this week (possibly with temperatures approaching or reaching 70° at EWR), the overall pattern continues to evolve in a fashion consistent with past late February AO+/PNA+ regimes. The PNA is headed negative, which should amplify the warmth in the Wednesday-Saturday period. The AO will drift lower in the extended range and possibly go negative.

Therefore, even as the exceptional warmth will ease, temperatures through the middle of the first week of March may not be all that cold. Afterward, there remains the potential that the second week of March could be colder than normal. Most La Niña winters feature some measurable snowfall, so the narrow timeframe from the middle of the first week of March through the second week of March could provide a decent window of opportunity.

Finally, considering the predominant state of the teleconnections this winter, the cold period might not last more than 7-10 days. The latter half of March could experience a warming trend that returns readings to above normal levels. As for the month as a whole, a warmer than normal outcome seems more likely than a colder than normal one. 

Don, once that -WPO retrogrades around mid March, it's game on for one heck of a blowtorch for mid to late month I think. I'm talking extreme warmth is possible, a la March 2012 style. This progression has been repeated over and over again this entire winter, except when it happens this time and the SE ridge really pops, it will have a mid to late March sun angle to work with

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59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Don, once that -WPO retrogrades around mid March, it's game on for one heck of a blowtorch for mid to late month I think. I'm talking extreme warmth is possible, a la March 2012 style. This progression has been repeated over and over again this entire winter, except when it happens this time and the SE ridge really pops, it will have a mid to late March sun angle to work with

We'll certainly have to watch for a bout of exceptional warmth. It wouldn't surprise me to see some extreme warmth either in late March or during April given how some past patterns e.g., 1976 evolved following the close of February.

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9 minutes ago, Morris said:

Forecasts busting warm again today. 54 in the park.

Warmth always overachieving..broken record continues. It feels warmer than I anticipated. I understimated 100% sunshine.  Pretty warm when in the sun. Yday was warmer but had filtered sunshine. 

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1 minute ago, snywx said:

Some bare spots are starting to pop up but for the most part there is still solid coverage. In shaded spots snow is still over 5" deep

It's too bad it's going to fry later this week. The snow pack up in Vermont is sick. 6" of sleet under 18" of solid snow. Hopefully at least that survives until the next cooler period. Going with the pattern this winter I think at least one more good storm from you guys north east is likely 

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Departures and top 10 warmest winter rankings will continue to rise with the near to record breaking warmth continuing.

Any seasonal forecast that had temperature departures in the +3 to +5 range for DJF along and the second 10 warmest

winter in a row did very well. This was our first back to back warmest winters in a row. It was also only the 5th time or so

that such a warm winter finished with over 20" of snow. This recent 2 year El Nino ending with the super event last winter

upped the ante on extreme warmth here above and beyond what we were already seeing with 2000's record warmth.

The top 10 warmest winters list  is full of years since the late 1990's.

 

DJF temperature departures and rankings so far

BDR...37.0...+4.4....#4

LGA...40.0....+4.5....#4

JFK...38.8....+3.7....#5

NYC...38.2....+3.1...#10

EWR...37.9....+3.7....#7

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I didnt see too many warm winter forecasts this year...the unexpectedly strong Pac jet really threw us  curveball this year.

The October pattern in the Pacific pretty much locked in for the whole winter. Interesting how the record KB and Scandinavian ridge in

October got split by the PV with a strong block near Scandinavia and the Aleutians for the winter.

 

OCT.jpg

DJF.jpg

 

 

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14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The next four days here are forecasted to reach 60 or better, and the cool down early next week will be short lived. I'm about ready to administer last rights. 

Hard to issues last rites on something that never even got started!  LOL   A true clunker for most of the eastern 2/3 of the country outside of central and Northern NE.   A few good snow events in this area, but the cold was fleeting and the warm periods were longer and stronger....Upton has ONE night below freezing here in the next 7 days...WOW

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1 minute ago, tdp146 said:

I hope we don't have a spring like last year with booming warmth very early and then freezing temps in May. I got ahead of myself last year and bought my annuals too early and had to keep them inside two weeks before I could plant.

The last week of April/1st two weeks of May were horrid last year..

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44 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

I hope we don't have a spring like last year with booming warmth very early and then freezing temps in May. I got ahead of myself last year and bought my annuals too early and had to keep them inside two weeks before I could plant.

Most of the time my part of the island is done with freezes by April 10th.

 

Screen shot 2017-02-21 at 8.45.57 AM.png

 

 

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Next 8 days, including today to be about +10. (48 vs. 38).  Since this covers the rest of Feb.,   I estimate the final damage as (3.8×20)+(10×8) = 156/28 = +5.6degs.

Last year we went +13.3, +1.9, +2.4 or +17.6 total and this year

                            +0.8, +5.4, +5.6 or +11.8est.

 

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I find it astounding that SNE has received average snowfall despite the incredible warmth. One more snow event and SNE will be above average despite the incredible warmth. We have really cashed in on every small window of opportunity. NYC is only a few inches to average too.


It stands to reason in many ways that SNE can still recieve copious amounts of snow despite such a warm winter. With the warmth, the SSTs remain elevated, providing much needed fuel. Likewise, the temperature gradient is much more pronounced when the cold fronts due tend to come through the area as well. With that being said, the storms have all the baroclynicity and fuel they need to dump extreme amounts of precip in a very short time span. In other words, all you need are a couple days of just below freezing temps to allow for extreme versions of snow storms. This allows the snow totals to remain near to above avg while the temperatures remain in the upper ends of record territory.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I find it astounding that SNE has received average snowfall despite the incredible warmth. One more snow event and SNE will be above average despite the incredible warmth. We have really cashed in on every small window of opportunity. NYC is only a few inches to average too.

HV as well... Im within 5" of my seasonal average. 

What a find amazing is the quick drop off of snowfall amounts say from Rt 80 southward

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Been going through some of the temps this winter in other parts of the country - INSANE.

CHO in Central VA is having a winter on par with what you would see some 500 miles to the south.

The high temp so far this Feb is 82F, and their avg so far this month is 60/37 (avg 49).  Compare ATL avg right now is 58/39 and Charleston, SC is 64/42.

In Charlotte, NC - the avg high so far this month is 65 which is about 10 deg above normal.   DC's avg high this month is in the upper 50s.

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