February 2017 Discussion & Observations

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I know you don't want to hear it but there are actually some possible, emphasis on possible, early signs of just that. March may actually see NAO and AO blocking depending on what happens with the stratosphere come weeks 3 and 4 of February. I think February is another solidly above average/warmer than normal month, especially the 2nd half. The question then becomes March, but again, once we get to March you have the spring seasonal changes coming quickly. Climatology and sun angle start to become legit issues for cold and snow sustainability at that point for our latitude 

It depends if it happens in the early part of March or after the 22th.  I think we still have a chance in early and even mid March, but after the equinox it's very hard to get an accumulating snowfall here.

[Paragon]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The strong Nino last year was almost certain to produce at least one biggie from the subtropical jet. Luckily it was cold enough and blocking wasn't severe. 09-10, 82-83 and 97-98 were all very active. 97-98 overwhelmed with warm air so the storms came as rain. That year would've been way better if it was just a little colder-the tracks were actually good. 

Source region was bad, eventually all that above normal temp in the Arctic is going to have an effect.

[Snowshack]

2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Worst nightmare would be for the AO/NAO to go negative when it's already too late to snow, I don't want a cool rainy spring after this winter.

Besides the warmth, one of the worst things about this January was how little sun we saw.  That's pretty rare- usually you get a few crystal clear and cold days and nights.

2 feet of snow here in March '14...while i dont get as excited for the late season events due to lack of staying power, a late season AO/NAO could still deliver for us.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

It depends if it happens in the early part of March or after the 22th.  I think we still have a chance in early and even mid March, but after the equinox it's very hard to get an accumulating snowfall here.

Of course we can and have gotten snow and cold in March. This is all very speculative remember but looking at everything right now and this can change, I would not be shocked to see high latitude blocking, finally in March. I would not bet any money on it yet however based just on how this winter has gone to this point. A low possibility outcome at the moment I think but still a possibility 

[Paragon]

30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

completely agree.  Regression to the mean.  We're overdue for that.  

haha c'mon you know as well as I do, there's no such thing as "mean" anymore.

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Of course we can and have gotten snow and cold in March. This is all very speculative remember but looking at everything right now and this can change, I would not be shocked to see high latitude blocking, finally in March. I would not bet any money on it yet however based just on how this winter has gone to this point. A low possibility outcome at the moment I think but still a possibility 

I agree, because these kinds of patterns tend to have stability.  It's hard to nudge them loose- persistence rules the roost until something really big happens to change it.  Last year it was the Kara Block.

[dmillz25]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I know you don't want to hear it but there are actually some possible, emphasis on possible, early signs of just that. March may actually see NAO and AO blocking depending on what happens with the stratosphere come weeks 3 and 4 of February. I think February is another solidly above average/warmer than normal month, especially the 2nd half. The question then becomes March, but again, once we get to March you have the spring seasonal changes coming quickly. Climatology and sun angle start to become legit issues for cold and snow sustainability at that point for our latitude 

It actually starts happening next week according to models with the strat

[dmillz25]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I know you don't want to hear it but there are actually some possible, emphasis on possible, early signs of just that. March may actually see NAO and AO blocking depending on what happens with the stratosphere come weeks 3 and 4 of February. I think February is another solidly above average/warmer than normal month, especially the 2nd half. The question then becomes March, but again, once we get to March you have the spring seasonal changes coming quickly. Climatology and sun angle start to become legit issues for cold and snow sustainability at that point for our latitude 

It actually starts happening next week according to models with the strat

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Paragon said:

haha c'mon you know as well as I do, there's no such thing as "mean" anymore.

well, you're not going to see 40, 50 60 inch snowfall years every year...just not happening.

[NJwx85]

Spring has sprung on the Euro. 966mb into the UP of Michigan day 8. Widespread lower to middle 60's here.

[NJwx85]

[NJwx85]

If you want a blizzard next week, best place to be is probably Thunder Bay, Ontario. 

[Paragon]

38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

well, you're not going to see 40, 50 60 inch snowfall years every year...just not happening.

I was concentrating more on the temps, because snowfall has somewhat to do with luck.  

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's too soon for me to be confident about a persistent AO-. The ongoing stratospheric warming could be helpful (zonal winds have reversed at 1 mb), but it might not be sufficiently strong to bring about the desired change. Climatology also somewhat favors the AO- as February proceeds (51% days during the 2/1-14/1981-2010 period and 53% days during the 2/15-28/1981-2010 period). However, the stratospheric polar vortex has been resilient this winter. It's unclear whether the low sea ice situation has contributed to the persistence of that vortex.

Currently, the spread on the ensembles is very wide and the extended range has had a fairly large negative bias in the forecasts. I'd like to see continuity in the guidance and a narrowing of the spread among the individual ensemble members.

Thanks Don

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

It actually starts happening next week according to models with the strat

I'm impressed- it's still snowing here.  News12 calling this an overachiever and said there are 2" now on the South Shore and 4" on the North Shore with snow still falling.

We've had a few of these light to moderate events this season and they seem to overachieve- like BW said, it just wants to snow, when it has the chance.

I have the feeling this is going to turn out like 92-93.  We had a lot of these small overachievers back then too- and closed the season out with a BANG.  I would sign up with a storm like that tracking over the BM instead of being an inside runner ;-)

 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Spring has sprung on the Euro. 966mb into the UP of Michigan day 8. Widespread lower to middle 60's here.

if that happens, we're done for the 1st half of February.   Euro tends to be over amped in that time frame, so who knows...

[NJwx85]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

if that happens, we're done for the 1st half of February.   Euro tends to be over amped in that time frame, so who knows...

It's really not a question of being over amped. The phase happens while the energy is in the Plains so the only option without blocking is a cutter.

[Brian5671]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

It's really not a question of being over amped. The phase happens while the energy is in the Plains so the only option without blocking is a cutter.

Agree completely.  The lack of atlantic blocking is a killer here.  Just like last year we started a series of cutters in February that never let up the rest of the way....I do have doubts we see a 960 mb low however.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree completely.  The lack of atlantic blocking is a killer here.  Just like last year we started a series of cutters in February that never let up the rest of the way....I do have doubts we see a 960 mb low however.  

Agreed, that would be record low pressure for that area for this time of year and close for any time of year. Really not a good sign though. 

[tdp146]

4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Tell the Edmund Fitzgerald to stay in port. 

[WEATHERBUFF]

On 1/30/2017 at 0:40 PM, CIK62 said:

That is because this is an analog.   Which LR model has done better?   Point is:  ANYONE OR ANY MODEL that predicted a BN month in the last 22 months would have been wrong. (I count June 2015 as above normal since its last 22 days behaved like the other AN months anyway).

Since every year and every month on a worldwide basis is now the hottest ever or in the top ten (since 1880), it is best to take a strike and say it is going to be AN if asked.  Next BN month will probably be an accident.     A volcanic eruption could be needed for a worldwide temperature reduction.

A good forecast will be every month 2 or 3 above normal for that does seem to be reality now.

[PB GFI]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's too soon for me to be confident about a persistent AO-. The ongoing stratospheric warming could be helpful (zonal winds have reversed at 1 mb), but it might not be sufficiently strong to bring about the desired change. Climatology also somewhat favors the AO- as February proceeds (51% days during the 2/1-14/1981-2010 period and 53% days during the 2/15-28/1981-2010 period). However, the stratospheric polar vortex has been resilient this winter. It's unclear whether the low sea ice situation has contributed to the persistence of that vortex.

Currently, the spread on the ensembles is very wide and the extended range has had a fairly large negative bias in the forecasts. I'd like to see continuity in the guidance and a narrowing of the spread among the individual ensemble members.

Don in what may be a response to a deep developing Kara sea ridge the GFS is forecasting  a -4SD AO. ( the Euro - 3 SD ).

The last time we saw such a feature it was back  in early January 2016 and we all remember what happened 2 weeks later .

So although its too late to save winter , the possibility exists that we can save February. 

[dmillz25]

3 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Don in what may be a response to a deep developing Kara sea ridge the GFS is forecasting  a -4SD AO. ( the Euro - 3 SD ).

The last time we saw such a feature it was back  in early January 2016 and we all remember what happened 2 weeks later .

So although its too late to save winter , the possibility exists that we can save February. 

It could also save March 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

It could also save March 

as Yogi Berra said, it's getting late early.   We need to get beyond seeing a great pattern modeled and see it move up in time.    Personally I remain skeptical that that big pac jet can be tamed and the EPO can stay negative for more than 5-7 days.   

[PB GFI]

Just now, dmillz25 said:

It could also save March 

I don't think there is enough confidence to assume anything more than another transient period/s until it actually happens .

If a good 10 day period shows up with some large scale feature , I think we take it and run .

By the time we get to March , It' spring training. 

 

 

[nzucker]

4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

I don't think there is enough confidence to assume anything more than another transient period/s until it actually happens .

If a good 10 day period shows up with some large scale feature , I think we take it and run .

By the time we get to March , It' spring training. 

 

 

You lost your confidence in this winter, eh?

No one thought Jan would be +7.

[PB GFI]

11 minutes ago, nzucker said:

You lost your confidence in this winter, eh?

No one thought Jan would be +7.

 

Plus 2 in January was a huge bust .

[pazzo83]

13 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Plus 2 in January was a huge bust .

Hopefully you're right and we can thread some needle in a 10 day period soon.

[donsutherland1]

44 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Don in what may be a response to a deep developing Kara sea ridge the GFS is forecasting  a -4SD AO. ( the Euro - 3 SD ).

The last time we saw such a feature it was back  in early January 2016 and we all remember what happened 2 weeks later .

So although its too late to save winter , the possibility exists that we can save February. 

I'll take whatever we can get. If we can get some decent snowstorms, it will be worth it regardless of the winter temperature anomaly. The Kara ridge looks very impressive and the model consensus on that is encouraging.

[PB GFI]

20 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Hopefully you're right and we can thread some needle in a 10 day period soon.

 

Yeh Chris , there " should "  be 1 more period .

Will have to wait and see if the MJO actually propagates into phase 8 .

And lets see if we can achieve some anomalous upper latitude blocking , maybe that wil work out for us  down stream .

But too cold in December and not warm enough in January , so the confidence in low  .