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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I still remember how warm it was out on the playground during recess for that April 76 record heat.

Me too, and in Catholic school long sleeves, polyester blue pants, leather shoes, and a tie, it was brutal. That afternoon the nuns told us we could unbutton our collars but leave the ties on. How nice. My kids went to public schools.

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4 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I grew up near Prospect Park and played frisbee with my dad there- great memories! When I lived in Brooklyn we used to go to the Brooklyn Botanical Garden all the time in the spring.

 

 

I'm not even from the area; my son when he was little loved the zoo, and we toured all of the local ones regularly. He's 19 now but his mom misses the trips into the cities, so they went today. I'm home with the dog and my teen daughter, who is only interested in her phone and texting. The dog is having a blast chasing squirrels in the backyard though.

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22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

From NWS

Record warmth across the area today! All climate sites except Central Park broke records: 
LGA: 66, breaks old record of 65 in 1997.
JFK: 68, breaks old record of 66 in 1997. 
EWR: 68, breaks old record of 66 in 1997. 
ISP: 65, breaks old record of 60 in 1997. 
BDR: 63, breaks old record of 61 in 1997.

Nice WNW keeps JFK at the same pace as EWR.  In the summer we'd be 100+ with this kind of wind.

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22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

From NWS

Record warmth across the area today! All climate sites except Central Park broke records: 
LGA: 66, breaks old record of 65 in 1997.
JFK: 68, breaks old record of 66 in 1997. 
EWR: 68, breaks old record of 66 in 1997. 
ISP: 65, breaks old record of 60 in 1997. 
BDR: 63, breaks old record of 61 in 1997.

a little above most forecasts, as usual.

I remember that warm spell in 97..walking home from school holding our winter coats. Think it got to low 70s eventually.

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1 minute ago, dWave said:

a little above most forecasts, as usual.

I remember that warm spell in 97..walking home from school holding our winter coats. Think it got to low 70s eventually.

That was the same year as the April Fools Day big snowstorm (for New England and also for Coastal NJ- we somehow got skipped over and only got 1-2" here).

It made it into my list of biggest busts because 8-12 inches was predicted the night before the storm.

 

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1 minute ago, Paragon said:

That was the same year as the April Fools Day big snowstorm (for New England and also for Coastal NJ- we somehow got skipped over and only got 1-2" here).

It made it into my list of biggest busts because 8-12 inches was predicted the night before the storm.

 

I vaguely remember that, at least the forecast for big snow  I took it with a grain of salt b/c it was Apr and snow forecasts used to bust all the time back then for the city & coast. That's how it seemed to me 

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13 minutes ago, dWave said:

I vaguely remember that, at least the forecast for big snow  I took it with a grain of salt b/c it was Apr and snow forecasts used to bust all the time back then for the city & coast. That's how it seemed to me 

Yeah see my list of biggest busts in the banter thread.  It makes it because we had heavy snow south of us and north of us, but we got very little.  This was way more common back in the 80s.

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1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said:

A pattern that would trigger an 80 around here in February would have to be equivalent to one that would give us 110+ in the Summer.

We only missed by 9 days last year when Newark reached 82 on March 9th and 81 on the 10th.

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3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Wife son and BIL at the Prospect Park zoo right now, I was going to pop over to the Brooklyn Botanical garden if I went, but decided tossing a ball to the dog in thebackyard was less stressful.

 

3 hours ago, Paragon said:

I grew up near Prospect Park and played frisbee with my dad there- great memories! When I lived in Brooklyn we used to go to the Brooklyn Botanical Garden all the time in the spring.

 

 

I love prospect Park. I was working there last Summer.

 

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8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Don, it will be interesting to see how warm it will have to get to start seeing a reduction in our seasonal snowfall.

 

 

 

I agree. For now, the increase in big/mega-snowstorms has contributed to an increasing seasonal snowfall average. At some point, the diminished frequency of snowfall could beging to exceed the impact of such large snowstorms on the seasonal averages. I'm not sure where that temperature threshold is, though.

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55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Five photos from the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon. Almost all of the snow cover from yesterday is now gone.

NYBG02192017-3.jpg

NYBG02192017-6.jpg

NYBG02192017-4.jpg

NYBG02192017-1.jpg

NYBG02192017-7.jpg

Are those cherry blossom trees that have open blossoms? That's crazy. I have noticed trees are budding and huge ready to open buds too.

In the infamous Dec 2015 some of the cherry blossom trees on my street bloomed

I  do remember a year seeing trees bud in Feb but it was toward the very end..not in the "teens"

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13 minutes ago, dWave said:

Are those cherry blossom trees that have open blossoms? That's crazy. I have noticed trees are budding and huge ready to open buds too.

In the infamous Dec 2015 some of the cherry blossom trees on my street bloomed

I  do remember a year seeing trees bud in Feb but it was toward the very end..not in the "teens"

No. Those are Japanese Apricot trees. Like you, I remember the cherry blossoms being in bloom in December 2015. Below is a photo from New York City on December 21, 2015:

NYC12212015.jpg

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11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. For now, the increase in big/mega-snowstorms has contributed to an increasing seasonal snowfall average. At some point, the diminished frequency of snowfall could beging to exceed the impact of such large snowstorms on the seasonal averages. I'm not sure where that temperature threshold is, though.

Maybe we can use other cities that are further south from us as somewhat of a guide.  I believe we will have a problem when our averages rise above what the current averages are of Norfolk, Va.

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10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

No. Those are Japanese Apricot trees. Like you, I remember the cherry blossoms being in bloom in December 2015. Below is a photo from New York City on December 21, 2015:

NYC12212015.jpg

Don, didn't these bloom early in 2002 also? I remember the non-growing season in 2001-02 being exceptionally short.

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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

SE ridge holds on right into the first week of March. It's rare to see so much agreement between the EPS, GEFS, and CMC for 2 weeks.

 

gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_21.png

gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_41.pnggefs_t2ma_5d_noram_65.png

 

What kind of temps are they looking at in Chicago right under the middle of the heat dome?

What happened to the late February- early March cool down everyone was talking about lol?

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31 minutes ago, Paragon said:

What kind of temps are they looking at in Chicago right under the middle of the heat dome?

What happened to the late February- early March cool down everyone was talking about lol?

The last run of the weeklies had above normal temps through March 5-6th. But the week 3 had temps closer to or below normal March 7-13.

You can see the latest EPS run trying to go to a change to near or below normal temps around March 7th.

 

eps_t850a_noram_61.png

 

 

29 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Didn't we set some records here last year for most number of 70 and 80 degree highs, BW?

Yes the earliest 80's on record in March.

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