February 2017 Discussion & Observations

[RedSky]

68F high temp

 

 

[dWave]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some scenes at the New York Botanical Garden during this afternoon's warmth:

Nice..I was there today, I live close by and I have the nycID membership so I took a free walk through since it was so nice out.

[donsutherland1]

27 minutes ago, dWave said:

Nice..I was there today, I live close by and I have the nycID membership so I took a free walk through since it was so nice out.

The Garden is a fantastic place to see the seasons change. There were still many patches of snow, but most or all of that snow will probably be gone by the end of next week.

[NortheastPAWx]

Being in midtown earlier just had that Spring feel, and more than just in temperature.

[donsutherland1]

Considering the guidance, forecast teleconnections, and weekly forecasts, it appears very likely that winter 2016-17 will be the first winter since winter 2012-13 in NYC to have a minimum temperature at or above 10°. The lowest reading in NYC so far has been 14° on January 9, 2017. Winter 2012-13 had an 11° temperature (1/23/2013) as the lowest figure of that winter.

[Snowstorms]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Since last year's super El Niño really got going in late summer/early fall, warmth has been winning and overperforming literally every single month since. It's just staggering. It's becoming obvious that it altered the global circulation pattern (Hadley cells, etc.) in a very big way since...

i think the 97-98 super Nino was the first to cause a change in the upper air pattern. The multi-year La Nina following it couldn't properly bring the global circulation back to normal and before you know it we saw another string of warm ENSO events from 2002-2005. The Super Nino in 2015-16 only added onto the continuing lingering effects of all the warm ENSO's and a new baseline was created globally as a result. This year's La Nina, if some want to call it that, has been powerless and now we could be on the heels of another El Nino, when the Global weather pattern has yet to recover from the previous one. 

Since the 97 El Nino, alot of us have seen extremes rather than your "slightly above normal/below normal average" type of weather. From record-breaking snowfall to the least snowfall ever recorded. All of these records and extremes have been in the last decade or two. Its staggering! Maybe some AGW contribution in there somewhere, but the new normal seems to be extremes much less being slightly off normal anomalies.

Thats my 2 cents.

 

 

[Sn0waddict]

Can't believe a lot of you were in the mid 60's.We maybe hit 50 here, but either way it still was nice enough for a walk on the beach. And somehow we still have a decent amount of snow on the ground!

[NortheastPAWx]

LGA still 60, Park 59 at midnight.

[bluewave]

You know it's going to we a warm day in February when NYC is 56 and 7am and LGA is 58.

[Paragon]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Since last year's super El Niño really got going in late summer/early fall, warmth has been winning and overperforming literally every single month since. It's just staggering. It's becoming obvious that it altered the global circulation pattern (Hadley cells, etc.) in a very big way since...

lol it's not that man, the globe has been getting hotter for years now.  20 months in a row above normal at NYC.  Even when we were colder a few years ago, we were just an island of cool in a sea of warmth.  We've just caught up with what the rest of the world has been experiencing for a long time now.

[Paragon]

7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

i think the 97-98 super Nino was the first to cause a change in the upper air pattern. The multi-year La Nina following it couldn't properly bring the global circulation back to normal and before you know it we saw another string of warm ENSO events from 2002-2005. The Super Nino in 2015-16 only added onto the continuing lingering effects of all the warm ENSO's and a new baseline was created globally as a result. This year's La Nina, if some want to call it that, has been powerless and now we could be on the heels of another El Nino, when the Global weather pattern has yet to recover from the previous one. 

Since the 97 El Nino, alot of us have seen extremes rather than your "slightly above normal/below normal average" type of weather. From record-breaking snowfall to the least snowfall ever recorded. All of these records and extremes have been in the last decade or two. Its staggering! Maybe some AGW contribution in there somewhere, but the new normal seems to be extremes much less being slightly off normal anomalies.

Thats my 2 cents.

 

 

You're thinking ENSO is causing the weather to warm, when clear evidence shows that the climate has been warming for decades now.  Actually more extreme El Ninos may be a side effect and by product of that rather than the cause.

[Paragon]

17 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

These insane warm spells have become all too common. Just wait until we get the perfect heat pattern for the summer months, it's going to be brutal. I'm guessing we see some 70s next week.

I'm guessing that'll happen in 2021.  We have an 11 year cycle of amazingly hot summers- the last one was 2010.  We had a few in a row after that but 2010 was the one that set records throughout the summer.

[Paragon]

15 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

63 here and less than 15 miles away its in the lower 50s. Warm air hitting a brick wall from JFK east

I don't know why it always has to be JFK lol.  Why can't it be a brick wall from Jones Beach east or conversely, from Staten Island east?  I guess it shifts further east as the season goes along and by June only eastern LI is cooler.

[Paragon]

15 hours ago, USCG RS said:

It depends on a plethora of things (the affect on the circulations). There are still studies observing how the 2011 Japanese quake affected the atmosphere, etc. The question, in my mind, has always been what the feedback cycles are that exactly affect the atmosphere and do these feedback cycles always even out once they hit a tipping point.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

It only adds to the warming that's already been occurring for decades now.

[Paragon]

16 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Just wanted to stop by here to post this: Chicago O'Hare is up to 68 degrees as of 1pm CST. Yesterday reached 67 degrees. Both daily record highs have been shattered. According to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley moderator Hoosier, Chicago had not had back to back 65°+ days in February until today.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Minneapolis is going to hit 60+ multiple times this month and it's only happened three times in their recorded history in the month of February.

[Paragon]

23 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the barrier islands like Jones Beach and Long Beach near the ocean influence don't radiate like the areas just inland from the South Shore bays.

You could see this effect driving out of Long Beach on a morning with calm winds. No frost in Long Beach, but frost developing as you get north 

of Merrick road.

7am

Jones Beach      N/A     37 N/A N/A SW7         N/A  WCI  32
Matinecock PT  NOT AVBL
Farmingdale    CLEAR     27  20  75 CALM      29.87S
MacArthur/ISP  PTCLDY    29  19  66 CALM      29.86F
Shirley        CLOUDY    23  18  81 CALM      29.87F
Westhampton    CLEAR     19  14  81 CALM      29.89F

2am

Jones Beach      N/A     37 N/A N/A CALM        N/A
Matinecock PT  NOT AVBL
Farmingdale    CLEAR     28  19  69 CALM      29.89F
MacArthur/ISP  CLEAR     29  18  63 SW6       29.88  WCI  23
Shirley        CLEAR     25  18  74 CALM      29.89S
Westhampton    CLEAR     21  15  78 CALM      29.91R
Southampton    NOT AVBL
Bridgehampton  NOT AVBL
East Hampton     N/A     23  19  83 CALM      29.87F
Montauk          N/A     33  25  72 CALM      29.88F
$$

I'm a few miles north of the barrier islands hence the reason it got into the upper 20s here.

[Paragon]

17 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

Yea, everyone here has been commenting on how warm their "winter" has been 

If you have a dry spring and summer you'll be setting records for 100 degree days this year.

[Rtd208]

Current temp starting out at 50 here.

[Paragon]

Looks like we had four different temperature regimes across the area yesterday.  One was upper 60s to around 70 from Central NJ southward, another was low to mid 60s from NE NJ through the northern part of the 5 boroughs, then we had mid to upper 50s from the southern part of the 5 boroughs through Nassau County, and then we had mid 40s to around 50 in Suffolk County.  Some places out there topped off at around 45.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Looks like we had four different temperature regimes across the area yesterday.  One was upper 60s to around 70 from Central NJ southward, another was low to mid 60s from NE NJ through the northern part of the 5 boroughs, then we had mid to upper 50s from the southern part of the 5 boroughs through Nassau County, and then we had mid 40s to around 50 in Suffolk County.  Some places out there topped off at around 45.

Long Island will be warmer today with the developing offshore flow.

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long Island will be warmer today wit the developing offshore flow.

Yes, I just hope we get a lot of sunshine.  It's mostly cloudy right now.

BW, what's your view of the warming we've seen the last few years?  I don't feel that long term warming comes from ENSO; if anything, long term warming may actually be causing more frequent and stronger el ninos.  Also, the climate has been warming for decades now- just take a look at the Arctic and temperature anomalies decade by decade all across the globe.  In the 2000s and early 2010s we were just an island of cool in an ocean of warmth and now we're catching up to the rest of the world.

 

[NortheastPAWx]

55 here. If we can get sustained sunlight we'll be off to the races.

[Paragon]

strong sunshine just broke through here

[CIK62]

Next 8 days, including today, to be +14deg.  (  51 vs. 37 )

Wait till we get the summertime analog to this.

[donsutherland1]

For context, February in NYC (Central Park) has been warming approximately 0.3°F per decade since 1970 (and 0.2° per decade since 1950). I used those reference points, as the City's footprint has been relatively mature since that time, which reduces the distortions that would occur from a rapidly increasing urban heat island effect that would have skewed the numbers had I used a timeframe from the beginning of the 20th century. 

[NJwx85]

Only sitting at 52 here. Bottomed out in the low 40's.

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For context, February in NYC (Central Park) has been warming approximately 0.3°F per decade since 1970 (and 0.2° per decade since 1950). I used those reference points, as the City's footprint has been relatively mature since that time, which reduces the distortions that would occur from a rapidly increasing urban heat island effect that would have skewed the numbers had I used a timeframe from the beginning of the 20th century. 

 

Don, it will be interesting to see how warm it will have to get to start seeing a reduction in our seasonal snowfall.

 

[Brian5671]

56 here with partial sunshine at 10:15 AM.

[EastonSN+]

57 already in Easton. Talk of a potential cross polar flow mid March but teleconnections show a negative PNA. I would think that would pump up the SE ridge. We shall see.

[Paragon]

BW and Don our seasonal snowfall is being helped out with greater available moisture with higher SST giving storms more fuel to bomb out more rapidly as they exit the coast or move up the coast.  We have been towing the line of being just cold enough for snow.  While there are some outlier winters like 2010-2011 and 2014-2015 which have consistent cold, more likely are winters like 2009-2010 and 2016-2017, where we have been getting snowstorms with marginal temperatures.  If anyone doubts that they have to ask themselves- where are the winters that are supposed to counterbalance the mild ones, where are the winters that actually established our "averages"?  Answer: they (mostly) happened in the earlier part of the climate period.