snowman19 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 3 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Yep, that was a Friday. I'm surprised you didn't do better with that one. Definitely elevation dependent, I'm above 600 ft. and got 3.9" Anyway, like you said, the long days and sun angle will do a number on any snow that does decide to fall. Even today you can tell how much higher the sun is climbing. I was down in Paramus, NJ for that one, at my girlfriend's old house before she moved up to Rockland with me. Lol it snowed moderately non stop the entire day down there and nothing at all to show for it, nothing but white rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 18, 2017 Author Share Posted February 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I was down in Paramus, NJ for that one, at my girlfriend's old house before she moved up to Rockland with me. Lol it snowed moderately non stop the entire day down there and nothing at all to show for it, nothing but white rain Funny I remember in the city it stuck on the colder surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Funny I remember in the city it stuck on the colder surfacesPart of it has to do with the buildings blocking out the sun. So colder surfaces are not exposed to as much radiation, thus less melting. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: I was down in Paramus, NJ for that one, at my girlfriend's old house before she moved up to Rockland with me. Lol it snowed moderately non stop the entire day down there and nothing at all to show for it, nothing but white rain Oh okay. If im not mistaken, Paramus doesn't have a lot of elevation, maybe that was the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 13 hours ago, bluewave said: It's really just a matter right now how much higher on the top 10 list the coming warmth boosts us. Except for 2 winters, all of those are post 1990 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: Oh of course it can easily snow in March but if it's not coming down at night, it will have a hell of a time accumulating during daylight hours unless it is thumping really good. You need heavy rates. Climo, sun angle and length of day really become factors once you get to March 1st and thereafter. I remember it was definitely March of 2015 and it was definitely a Friday, I forget the exact date, but it snowed moderately literally all day long from like 7am till almost 8pm and none of it stuck, just all white rain, not even so much as a dusting or coating It can easily snow into April too- I remember it snowing all day long on April 7, 2003 on Long Island and we ended up getting 8 inches. Paramus might be too urban of an area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 12 hours ago, snowman19 said: HM tweeted about it this morning, but classic La Niña tropical convective forcing looks to be coming back in full force by the beginning of March. If that is the case, it's pretty much game over for winter in our neck of the woods. The cool shot in early March would just be a transient cool shot and above to well above normal temps would follow quickly. La Niña forcing in March favors strong SE ridging, lakes cutters/inland runners as well as above normal warmth up the east coast.... I think it's all about blocking and not ENSO. As long as you get the blocking, ENSO state doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 12 hours ago, nzucker said: Amazing how this winter has been nothing like 01-02 or 11-12 in terms of snowfall despite nearly equal warmth. We capitalized on the cold from Dec 15-20, Jan 5-10, and February 5-10. I have 23" snowfall here, and we should get one more 4-8" event to bring us to average, which I estimate at 28" in Hunts Point. We just need one or two cold days each month to make average snowfall. I have 27" on the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 8 hours ago, JerseyWx said: I completely agree, the sun angle will become an issue soon, but it can still snow relatively easy into March. On March 20, 2015 I got 4 inches of snow, which started in the early afternoon when the sun would of course be at a high angle. It began as wet flakes, but was able to transition to a steady snow, especially above 600ft. Even on April 16, 2014 (someone correct me if the date is off slightly) many of us woke up to a light coating of snow. We got half an inch of snow on the morning of 4/16/2014, but that one wasn't half as impressive as the storm on 4/7/2003 when it snowed all day long and we got 8" and that wasn't even an HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Another one of those nights where it's noticeably cooler across the bays, it's in the 20's and low 30's across Long Island but it's in the upper 30's along the barrier coastline. Very interesting phenomenon to observe, I'm at 38, JFK's at 32, yet we shared the same high/low temp (44/27) just yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 33 minutes ago, Cfa said: Another one of those nights where it's noticeably cooler across the bays, it's in the 20's and low 30's across Long Island but it's in the upper 30's along the barrier coastline. Very interesting phenomenon to observe, I'm at 38, JFK's at 32, yet we shared the same high/low temp (44/27) just yesterday. I'm five miles SE of JFK and it's 29 here and 32 at JFK Out at FOK it's 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 44 minutes ago, Paragon said: I'm five miles SE of JFK and it's 29 here and 32 at JFK Out at FOK it's 19. I'm also SE of JFK, so there's a pretty large discrepancy between us, although that has been my experience here, I've seen the temp jump by as much as 10 degrees overnight. Here are the overnight temps: JFK's on top and here is on the bottom, both started out the same and then JFK started dropping around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Cfa said: Another one of those nights where it's noticeably cooler across the bays, it's in the 20's and low 30's across Long Island but it's in the upper 30's along the barrier coastline. Very interesting phenomenon to observe, I'm at 38, JFK's at 32, yet we shared the same high/low temp (44/27) just yesterday. Yeah, the barrier islands like Jones Beach and Long Beach near the ocean influence don't radiate like the areas just inland from the South Shore bays. You could see this effect driving out of Long Beach on a morning with calm winds. No frost in Long Beach, but frost developing as you get north of Merrick road. 7am Jones Beach N/A 37 N/A N/A SW7 N/A WCI 32 Matinecock PT NOT AVBL Farmingdale CLEAR 27 20 75 CALM 29.87S MacArthur/ISP PTCLDY 29 19 66 CALM 29.86F Shirley CLOUDY 23 18 81 CALM 29.87F Westhampton CLEAR 19 14 81 CALM 29.89F 2am Jones Beach N/A 37 N/A N/A CALM N/A Matinecock PT NOT AVBL Farmingdale CLEAR 28 19 69 CALM 29.89F MacArthur/ISP CLEAR 29 18 63 SW6 29.88 WCI 23 Shirley CLEAR 25 18 74 CALM 29.89S Westhampton CLEAR 21 15 78 CALM 29.91R Southampton NOT AVBL Bridgehampton NOT AVBL East Hampton N/A 23 19 83 CALM 29.87F Montauk N/A 33 25 72 CALM 29.88F $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Next 8 days, including today will be a very vulgar +13deg. Sustained cold not till March 5 now, though the 50's should end by 2/27. ie. 49 vs. 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 The Euro goes right into spring over the next week +. Winter departures and top 10 warmest standings will get a nice boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro goes right into spring over the next 8 days. The 500 mb height anomalies are consistent with exceptionally warm late February patterns. I don't think the upcoming warmth will quite match that of late February 1976, but it could be among the more impressive periods of late February warmth in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 500 mb height anomalies are consistent with exceptionally warm late February patterns. I don't think the upcoming warmth will quite match that of late February 1976, but it could be among the more impressive periods of late February warmth in recent years. Yeah, the airmass coming in this weekend is very impressive for this time of year. Several stations around the Chicago area yesterday had their highs beat guidance by 5 degrees or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the airmass coming in this weekend is very impressive for this time of year. Several stations around the Chicago area yesterday had their highs beat guidance by 5 degrees or more. I'm sure we'll beat that here too-especially once the snowpack is gone...with little to no snow cover over the east and midwest the warmth coming in from the southwest will have an unimpeded path north and east until you get to central NE and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 I am ready for spring. However most areas NYC north and east are very close to seasonal average for snow. The Fairfield Easton area just 1 inch away! I hope for one more storm before full speed into spring. Looking at the models it does look to have a brief favorable period after day 10 so we shall see. Remember last year we had a nice little event mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Taken literately, the 0Z GFS is +10deg. on the average high for the next 16 days, with no below normal highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 With the warmup here Central Park may only fall below freezing 1 or 2 more times this month. I believe they are only around 40 on the winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 I'm up in the Geneva,NY area at the moment and I gotta say this is the nicest day since last fall. Just perfect out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Next 7 days are now +14degs. 50 vs. 36 No cold showing now till March 08, beyond the 16 days covered. More +20deg. days possible in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: I'm sure we'll beat that here too-especially once the snowpack is gone...with little to no snow cover over the east and midwest the warmth coming in from the southwest will have an unimpeded path north and east until you get to central NE and north. While the Euro ended up the closest today, even it will be too cool with several more hours of warming to go this afternoon. Current Newark temperature as of 1pm...59...0z Euro forecast high....60.....GFS MOS...57....NAM MET...56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the airmass coming in this weekend is very impressive for this time of year. Several stations around the Chicago area yesterday had their highs beat guidance by 5 degrees or more. I'm in Austin TX right now and we are in the mid 80s, going to be pushing 90 today. It's so warm it's almost unsettling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 when Spring comes will we notice it after another mild winter?...at least it snowed and it could some more....The temperatures including the amount of 32 degrees or lower days are near the record for the least amount... 35 in 2016-17 as of 2/18...unless we get a cold March I doubt we see 50 days... 37 in 2011-12 46 in 2015-16 47 in 2001-02 49 in 1997-98 52 in 1998-99 53 in 1982-83 54 in 1990-91 56 in 1999-00 57 in 1972-73 58 in 1952-53 59 in 1897-98 59 in 1957-58 60 in 1931-32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 1pm LGA 56 Park 55 JFK 50...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 18, 2017 Author Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: 1pm LGA 56 Park 55 JFK 50...? That sea breeze keeping JFK down. It's at 57 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 17 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: I'm in Austin TX right now and we are in the mid 80s, going to be pushing 90 today. It's so warm it's almost unsettling. You are in an area that has experienced some of the highest temperature departures in the US this winter to date. Feb...+10.9...so far Jan....+6.2 Dec...+4.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: You are in an area that has experienced some of the highest temperature departures in the US this winter to date. Feb...+10.9...so far Jan....+6.2 Dec...+4.4 Yea, everyone here has been commenting on how warm their "winter" has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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