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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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3 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Yep, that was a Friday.  I'm surprised you didn't do better with that one.  Definitely elevation dependent, I'm above 600 ft. and got 3.9"

Anyway, like you said, the long days and sun angle will do a number on any snow that does decide to fall.  Even today you can tell how much higher the sun is climbing.

I was down in Paramus, NJ for that one, at my girlfriend's old house before she moved up to Rockland with me. Lol it snowed moderately non stop the entire day down there and nothing at all to show for it, nothing but white rain

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15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I was down in Paramus, NJ for that one, at my girlfriend's old house before she moved up to Rockland with me. Lol it snowed moderately non stop the entire day down there and nothing at all to show for it, nothing but white rain

Funny I remember in the city it stuck on the colder surfaces

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Funny I remember in the city it stuck on the colder surfaces


Part of it has to do with the buildings blocking out the sun. So colder surfaces are not exposed to as much radiation, thus less melting.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I was down in Paramus, NJ for that one, at my girlfriend's old house before she moved up to Rockland with me. Lol it snowed moderately non stop the entire day down there and nothing at all to show for it, nothing but white rain

Oh okay.  If im not mistaken, Paramus doesn't have a lot of elevation, maybe that was the problem.

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8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Oh of course it can easily snow in March but if it's not coming down at night, it will have a hell of a time accumulating during daylight hours unless it is thumping really good. You need heavy rates. Climo, sun angle and length of day really become factors once you get to March 1st and thereafter. I remember it was definitely March of 2015 and it was definitely a Friday, I forget the exact date, but it snowed moderately literally all day long from like 7am till almost 8pm and none of it stuck, just all white rain, not even so much as a dusting or coating

It can easily snow into April too- I remember it snowing all day long on April 7, 2003 on Long Island and we ended up getting 8 inches.  Paramus might be too urban of an area.

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12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

HM tweeted about it this morning, but classic La Niña tropical convective forcing looks to be coming back in full force by the beginning of March. If that is the case, it's pretty much game over for winter in our neck of the woods. The cool shot in early March would just be a transient cool shot and above to well above normal temps would follow quickly. La Niña forcing in March favors strong SE ridging, lakes cutters/inland runners as well as above normal warmth up the east coast....

I think it's all about blocking and not ENSO.  As long as you get the blocking, ENSO state doesn't matter.

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12 hours ago, nzucker said:

Amazing how this winter has been nothing like 01-02 or 11-12 in terms of snowfall despite nearly equal warmth. We capitalized on the cold from Dec 15-20, Jan 5-10, and February 5-10. I have 23" snowfall here, and we should get one more 4-8" event to bring us to average, which I estimate at 28" in Hunts Point.

We just need one or two cold days each month to make average snowfall. I have 27" on the season so far.

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8 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

I completely agree, the sun angle will become an issue soon, but it can still snow relatively easy into March.  On March 20, 2015 I got 4 inches of snow, which started in the early afternoon when the sun would of course be at a high angle.  It began as wet flakes, but was able to transition to a steady snow, especially above 600ft.  Even on April 16, 2014 (someone correct me if the date is off slightly) many of us woke up to a light coating of snow.

We got half an inch of snow on the morning of 4/16/2014, but that one wasn't half as impressive as the storm on 4/7/2003 when it snowed all day long and we got 8" and that wasn't even an HECS.

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Another one of those nights where it's noticeably cooler across the bays, it's in the 20's and low 30's across Long Island but it's in the upper 30's along the barrier coastline. Very interesting phenomenon to observe, I'm at 38, JFK's at 32, yet we shared the same high/low temp (44/27) just yesterday.

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33 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Another one of those nights where it's noticeably cooler across the bays, it's in the 20's and low 30's across Long Island but it's in the upper 30's along the barrier coastline. Very interesting phenomenon to observe, I'm at 38, JFK's at 32, yet we shared the same high/low temp (44/27) just yesterday.

I'm five miles SE of JFK and it's 29 here and 32 at JFK

Out at FOK it's 19.

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44 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I'm five miles SE of JFK and it's 29 here and 32 at JFK

Out at FOK it's 19.

I'm also SE of JFK, so there's a pretty large discrepancy between us, although that has been my experience here, I've seen the temp jump by as much as 10 degrees overnight.

Here are the overnight temps:

14809948-022A-4704-8DAB-90E7B9F7A200.jpg

JFK's on top and here is on the bottom, both started out the same and then JFK started dropping around midnight.

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

Another one of those nights where it's noticeably cooler across the bays, it's in the 20's and low 30's across Long Island but it's in the upper 30's along the barrier coastline. Very interesting phenomenon to observe, I'm at 38, JFK's at 32, yet we shared the same high/low temp (44/27) just yesterday.

Yeah, the barrier islands like Jones Beach and Long Beach near the ocean influence don't radiate like the areas just inland from the South Shore bays.

You could see this effect driving out of Long Beach on a morning with calm winds. No frost in Long Beach, but frost developing as you get north 

of Merrick road.

7am

Jones Beach      N/A     37 N/A N/A SW7         N/A  WCI  32
Matinecock PT  NOT AVBL
Farmingdale    CLEAR     27  20  75 CALM      29.87S
MacArthur/ISP  PTCLDY    29  19  66 CALM      29.86F
Shirley        CLOUDY    23  18  81 CALM      29.87F
Westhampton    CLEAR     19  14  81 CALM      29.89F

2am

Jones Beach      N/A     37 N/A N/A CALM        N/A
Matinecock PT  NOT AVBL
Farmingdale    CLEAR     28  19  69 CALM      29.89F
MacArthur/ISP  CLEAR     29  18  63 SW6       29.88  WCI  23
Shirley        CLEAR     25  18  74 CALM      29.89S
Westhampton    CLEAR     21  15  78 CALM      29.91R
Southampton    NOT AVBL
Bridgehampton  NOT AVBL
East Hampton     N/A     23  19  83 CALM      29.87F
Montauk          N/A     33  25  72 CALM      29.88F
$$
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25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro goes right into spring over the next 8 days.

KEWR_2017021800_ecmwf_min_max_10.png

 

The 500 mb height anomalies are consistent with exceptionally warm late February patterns. I don't think the upcoming warmth will quite match that of late February 1976, but it could be among the more impressive periods of late February warmth in recent years.

AO02182017.jpg

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19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 500 mb height anomalies are consistent with exceptionally warm late February patterns. I don't think the upcoming warmth will quite match that of late February 1976, but it could be among the more impressive periods of late February warmth in recent years.

 

Yeah, the airmass coming in this weekend is very impressive for this time of year. Several stations around the Chicago area yesterday had their highs beat guidance by

5 degrees or more.

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the airmass coming in this weekend is very impressive for this time of year. Several stations around the Chicago area yesterday had their highs beat guidance by

5 degrees or more.

I'm sure we'll beat that here too-especially once the snowpack is gone...with little to no snow cover over the east and midwest the warmth coming in from the southwest will have an unimpeded path north and east until you get to central NE and north.

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I am ready for spring. However most areas NYC north and east are very close to seasonal average for snow. The Fairfield Easton area just 1 inch away! I hope for one more storm before full speed into spring. Looking at the models it does look to have a brief favorable period after day 10 so we shall see. Remember last year we had a nice little event mid March.

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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I'm sure we'll beat that here too-especially once the snowpack is gone...with little to no snow cover over the east and midwest the warmth coming in from the southwest will have an unimpeded path north and east until you get to central NE and north.

While the Euro ended up the closest today, even it will be too cool with several more hours of warming to go this afternoon.

Current Newark temperature as of 1pm...59...0z Euro forecast high....60.....GFS MOS...57....NAM MET...56

go.cgi.gif

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the airmass coming in this weekend is very impressive for this time of year. Several stations around the Chicago area yesterday had their highs beat guidance by

5 degrees or more.

I'm in Austin TX right now and we are in the mid 80s, going to be pushing 90 today.  It's so warm it's almost unsettling.

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when Spring comes will we notice it after another mild winter?...at least it snowed and it could some more....The temperatures including the amount of 32 degrees or lower days are near the record for the least amount...

35 in 2016-17 as of 2/18...unless we get a cold March I doubt we see 50 days...

37 in 2011-12

46 in 2015-16

47 in 2001-02

49 in 1997-98

52 in 1998-99

53 in 1982-83

54 in 1990-91

56 in 1999-00

57 in 1972-73

58 in 1952-53

59 in 1897-98

59 in 1957-58

60 in 1931-32

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17 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

I'm in Austin TX right now and we are in the mid 80s, going to be pushing 90 today.  It's so warm it's almost unsettling.

You are in an area that has experienced some of the highest temperature departures in the US this winter to date.

Feb...+10.9...so far

Jan....+6.2

Dec...+4.4

 

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