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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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8 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

That's probably the outcome philly south sees temps in the 60's and close to 70 while northern areas struggle to get to 50.

All out torch resumes for Saturday ahead of a cold front on Saturday night. Dew points reach the lower 60's in SW areas. Looks like some decent instability too. We bang hard on Saturday night.

  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_34.png

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58 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Let's really mega torch so we can get in the top ten warmest winter. Then we have another potential winter period that hopefully produces at least one 6"+ storm area wide. This would fit the winter pattern. Ending a week of solid snow cover out here on the island today/tomorrow. A winter like this is actually a good thing in my opinion assuming we do score that final winter period 

It's really just a matter right now how much higher on the top 10 list the coming warmth boosts us.

 

Screen shot 2017-02-17 at 11.54.34 AM.png

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Will be hard to get higher than that here, need 1.4 degrees to tie #3.  Some clunkers on that list for sure!

Amazing how this winter has been nothing like 01-02 or 11-12 in terms of snowfall despite nearly equal warmth. We capitalized on the cold from Dec 15-20, Jan 5-10, and February 5-10. I have 23" snowfall here, and we should get one more 4-8" event to bring us to average, which I estimate at 28" in Hunts Point.

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8 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Amazing how this winter has been nothing like 01-02 or 11-12 in terms of snowfall despite nearly equal warmth. We capitalized on the cold from Dec 15-20, Jan 5-10, and February 5-10. I have 23" snowfall here, and we should get one more 4-8" event to bring us to average, which I estimate at 28" in Hunts Point.

Sounds about right. I average 27" here

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26 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Sounds about right. I average 27" here

I would guess 28-29" for Hunts Point...I'm right on the water, which cuts down on snowfall. However, if Central Park is 27", I'd guess I'm a little above that as my location is to the northeast of there. The highest elevations of Riverdale in the northwest Bronx are 30"+...I'd guess around 32".

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HM tweeted about it this morning, but classic La Niña tropical convective forcing looks to be coming back in full force by the beginning of March. If that is the case, it's pretty much game over for winter in our neck of the woods. The cool shot in early March would just be a transient cool shot and above to well above normal temps would follow quickly. La Niña forcing in March favors strong SE ridging, lakes cutters/inland runners as well as above normal warmth up the east coast....

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

HM tweeted about it this morning, but classic La Niña tropical convective forcing looks to be coming back in full force by the beginning of March. If that is the case, it's pretty much game over for winter in our neck of the woods. The cool shot in early March would just be a transient cool shot and above to well above normal temps would follow quickly. La Niña forcing in March favors strong SE ridging, lakes cutters/inland runners as well as above normal warmth up the east coast....

I doubt we saw the last snowfall. With the Soi crashing along with a favorable MJO, things look quite interesting in the last week of February into March.

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Based on the guidance, it appears that Winter 2016-17 will wind up with a mean temperature of between 38.2° and 39.0° in Central Park. That would rank the winter among the 10 warmest winters. A 38.2° mean temperature would be 10th warmest while a 39.0° mean temperature would be 7th warmest. The 6th warmest figure is 39.1° from winter 1990-91. Given how the warmth has often exceeded that shown on the medium-range guidance, that figure is probably in play.

Also, the 12z GFS MOS is showing at least one day with a minimum temperature of 50° or above. That would be an uncommon occurrence in February. The number of such cases by year is below:

1930 3 (record)
1949 1
1966 1
1985 2
1988 1
1990 1
1991 1
2002 1

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36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

snowcover will go poof in the next 2-3 days.  Piles will remain of course, but this stuff will be vaporized with the higher sun angle and temps closing in on 60 or better for 2 days

On March 1st, the sun will be in the exact same position as it is on October 13th. We are fast approaching the time of year when sun angle will be a real issue

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

On March 1st, the sun will be in the exact same position as it is on October 13th. We are fast approaching the time of year when sun angle will be a real issue

Need March storms to start ideally around 4-5pm to take maximum advantage of nocturnal conditions( unless it's a HECS then it doesnt really matter.)

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46 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

snowcover will go poof in the next 2-3 days.  Piles will remain of course, but this stuff will be vaporized with the higher sun angle and temps closing in on 60 or better for 2 days

I haven't had snowcover since sunday, except for a few patches in shady areas. The 6 inches did not last long. 

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4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Look at that central PA snow hole and also the lack of snow on the west side of the Great Lakes in Canada!!! We really threaded the needle this winter between epic Maine and the disaster to the west 

Yeah, it's the first time that I can find back to back winters with all 3 months milder than normal and over 20" of snow for our area. 

Much better snowfall outcomes than other 2000's winters like 11-12 and 01-02 which also had all 3 winter months with a +temp departure.

2016-2017

2015-2016

1990-1991

1982-1983

1948-1949

 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

On March 1st, the sun will be in the exact same position as it is on October 13th. We are fast approaching the time of year when sun angle will be a real issue

I completely agree, the sun angle will become an issue soon, but it can still snow relatively easy into March.  On March 20, 2015 I got 4 inches of snow, which started in the early afternoon when the sun would of course be at a high angle.  It began as wet flakes, but was able to transition to a steady snow, especially above 600ft.  Even on April 16, 2014 (someone correct me if the date is off slightly) many of us woke up to a light coating of snow.

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8 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I completely agree, the sun angle will become an issue soon, but it can still snow relatively easy into March.  On March 20, 2015 I got 4 inches of snow, which started in the early afternoon when the sun would of course be at a high angle.  It began as wet flakes, but was able to transition to a steady snow, especially above 600ft.  Even on April 16, 2014 (someone correct me if the date is off slightly) many of us woke up to a light coating of snow.

Oh of course it can easily snow in March but if it's not coming down at night, it will have a hell of a time accumulating during daylight hours unless it is thumping really good. You need heavy rates. Climo, sun angle and length of day really become factors once you get to March 1st and thereafter. I remember it was definitely March of 2015 and it was definitely a Friday, I forget the exact date, but it snowed moderately literally all day long from like 7am till almost 8pm and none of it stuck, just all white rain, not even so much as a dusting or coating

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Oh of course it can easily snow in March but if it's not coming down at night, it will have a hell of a time accumulating during daylight hours unless it is thumping really good. You need heavy rates. Climo, sun angle and length of day really become factors once you get to March 1st and thereafter. I remember it was definitely March of 2015 and it was definitely a Friday, I forget the exact date, but it snowed moderately literally all day long from like 7am till almost 8pm and none of it stuck, just all white rain, not even so much as a dusting or coating

Friday 3/20/15, 3.1" IMBY, it did settle to 3" at the stake though. 

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8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Oh of course it can easily snow in March but if it's not coming down at night, it will have a hell of a time accumulating during daylight hours unless it is thumping really good. You need heavy rates. Climo, sun angle and length of day really become factors once you get to March 1st and thereafter. I remember it was definitely March of 2015 and it was definitely a Friday, I forget the exact date, but it snowed moderately literally all day long from like 7am till almost 8pm and none of it stuck, just all white rain, not even so much as a dusting or coating

Yep, that was a Friday.  I'm surprised you didn't do better with that one.  Definitely elevation dependent, I'm above 600 ft. and got 3.9"

Anyway, like you said, the long days and sun angle will do a number on any snow that does decide to fall.  Even today you can tell how much higher the sun is climbing.

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