NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: That's probably the outcome philly south sees temps in the 60's and close to 70 while northern areas struggle to get to 50. All out torch resumes for Saturday ahead of a cold front on Saturday night. Dew points reach the lower 60's in SW areas. Looks like some decent instability too. We bang hard on Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: that's a map you'd see in Mid April. Extreme warmth over the mid section of the country continues as well. Severe weather threat next Saturday if the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: All out torch resumes for Saturday ahead of a cold front on Saturday night. Dew points reach the lower 60's in SW areas. Looks like some decent instability too. We bang hard on Saturday night. That could change to snow inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Just now, WEATHERBUFF said: That could change to snow inland. By the time cold enough air arrives the precip is just about done. Perhaps places up in the Binghampton CWA could pick up some wet flakes at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: By the time cold enough air arrives the precip is just about done. Perhaps places up in the Binghampton CWA could pick up some wet flakes at the end. Plenty of time for that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 58 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Let's really mega torch so we can get in the top ten warmest winter. Then we have another potential winter period that hopefully produces at least one 6"+ storm area wide. This would fit the winter pattern. Ending a week of solid snow cover out here on the island today/tomorrow. A winter like this is actually a good thing in my opinion assuming we do score that final winter period It's really just a matter right now how much higher on the top 10 list the coming warmth boosts us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's really just a matter right now how much higher on the top 10 list the coming warmth boosts us. I think we could make a run at #4 on that map....the 1st two or three look safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: I think we could make a run at #4 on that map....the 1st two or three look safe. Your area is currently in 4th place even before the the coming warmth gets started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Your area is currently in 4th place even before the the coming warmth gets started. Will be hard to get higher than that here, need 1.4 degrees to tie #3. Some clunkers on that list for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Will be hard to get higher than that here, need 1.4 degrees to tie #3. Some clunkers on that list for sure! Amazing how this winter has been nothing like 01-02 or 11-12 in terms of snowfall despite nearly equal warmth. We capitalized on the cold from Dec 15-20, Jan 5-10, and February 5-10. I have 23" snowfall here, and we should get one more 4-8" event to bring us to average, which I estimate at 28" in Hunts Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, nzucker said: Amazing how this winter has been nothing like 01-02 or 11-12 in terms of snowfall despite nearly equal warmth. We capitalized on the cold from Dec 15-20, Jan 5-10, and February 5-10. I have 23" snowfall here, and we should get one more 4-8" event to bring us to average, which I estimate at 28" in Hunts Point. Sounds about right. I average 27" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 26 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Sounds about right. I average 27" here I would guess 28-29" for Hunts Point...I'm right on the water, which cuts down on snowfall. However, if Central Park is 27", I'd guess I'm a little above that as my location is to the northeast of there. The highest elevations of Riverdale in the northwest Bronx are 30"+...I'd guess around 32". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 HM tweeted about it this morning, but classic La Niña tropical convective forcing looks to be coming back in full force by the beginning of March. If that is the case, it's pretty much game over for winter in our neck of the woods. The cool shot in early March would just be a transient cool shot and above to well above normal temps would follow quickly. La Niña forcing in March favors strong SE ridging, lakes cutters/inland runners as well as above normal warmth up the east coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Spring preview this weekend as temps will be closer to normal for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: HM tweeted about it this morning, but classic La Niña tropical convective forcing looks to be coming back in full force by the beginning of March. If that is the case, it's pretty much game over for winter in our neck of the woods. The cool shot in early March would just be a transient cool shot and above to well above normal temps would follow quickly. La Niña forcing in March favors strong SE ridging, lakes cutters/inland runners as well as above normal warmth up the east coast.... I doubt we saw the last snowfall. With the Soi crashing along with a favorable MJO, things look quite interesting in the last week of February into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: Spring preview this weekend as temps will be closer to normal for April. Pretty much. Looking at historical norms those maps have a mid April look to them. There goes my snowpack that I've held onto since January 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Based on the guidance, it appears that Winter 2016-17 will wind up with a mean temperature of between 38.2° and 39.0° in Central Park. That would rank the winter among the 10 warmest winters. A 38.2° mean temperature would be 10th warmest while a 39.0° mean temperature would be 7th warmest. The 6th warmest figure is 39.1° from winter 1990-91. Given how the warmth has often exceeded that shown on the medium-range guidance, that figure is probably in play. Also, the 12z GFS MOS is showing at least one day with a minimum temperature of 50° or above. That would be an uncommon occurrence in February. The number of such cases by year is below: 1930 3 (record) 1949 1 1966 1 1985 2 1988 1 1990 1 1991 1 2002 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 46 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Pretty much. Looking at historical norms those maps have a mid April look to them. There goes my snowpack that I've held onto since January 23rd. Yeah, my snow patches that remain from the 9th will melt also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 snowcover will go poof in the next 2-3 days. Piles will remain of course, but this stuff will be vaporized with the higher sun angle and temps closing in on 60 or better for 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: snowcover will go poof in the next 2-3 days. Piles will remain of course, but this stuff will be vaporized with the higher sun angle and temps closing in on 60 or better for 2 days On March 1st, the sun will be in the exact same position as it is on October 13th. We are fast approaching the time of year when sun angle will be a real issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: On March 1st, the sun will be in the exact same position as it is on October 13th. We are fast approaching the time of year when sun angle will be a real issue Need March storms to start ideally around 4-5pm to take maximum advantage of nocturnal conditions( unless it's a HECS then it doesnt really matter.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 46 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: snowcover will go poof in the next 2-3 days. Piles will remain of course, but this stuff will be vaporized with the higher sun angle and temps closing in on 60 or better for 2 days I haven't had snowcover since sunday, except for a few patches in shady areas. The 6 inches did not last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, my snow patches that remain from the 9th will melt also. Look at that central PA snow hole and also the lack of snow on the west side of the Great Lakes in Canada!!! We really threaded the needle this winter between epic Maine and the disaster to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Look at that central PA snow hole and also the lack of snow on the west side of the Great Lakes in Canada!!! We really threaded the needle this winter between epic Maine and the disaster to the west Yeah, it's the first time that I can find back to back winters with all 3 months milder than normal and over 20" of snow for our area. Much better snowfall outcomes than other 2000's winters like 11-12 and 01-02 which also had all 3 winter months with a +temp departure. 2016-2017 2015-2016 1990-1991 1982-1983 1948-1949 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Despite the MJO's progressing through Phase 8 with an amplitude > 3, the teleconnections have evolved in a fashion that favors excessive warmth. That warmth has long been signaled on the guidance, but for purposes of comparison, below are the forecast teleconnections and climatology: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 10" at my stake this morning, we'll see how fast it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: On March 1st, the sun will be in the exact same position as it is on October 13th. We are fast approaching the time of year when sun angle will be a real issue I completely agree, the sun angle will become an issue soon, but it can still snow relatively easy into March. On March 20, 2015 I got 4 inches of snow, which started in the early afternoon when the sun would of course be at a high angle. It began as wet flakes, but was able to transition to a steady snow, especially above 600ft. Even on April 16, 2014 (someone correct me if the date is off slightly) many of us woke up to a light coating of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I completely agree, the sun angle will become an issue soon, but it can still snow relatively easy into March. On March 20, 2015 I got 4 inches of snow, which started in the early afternoon when the sun would of course be at a high angle. It began as wet flakes, but was able to transition to a steady snow, especially above 600ft. Even on April 16, 2014 (someone correct me if the date is off slightly) many of us woke up to a light coating of snow. Oh of course it can easily snow in March but if it's not coming down at night, it will have a hell of a time accumulating during daylight hours unless it is thumping really good. You need heavy rates. Climo, sun angle and length of day really become factors once you get to March 1st and thereafter. I remember it was definitely March of 2015 and it was definitely a Friday, I forget the exact date, but it snowed moderately literally all day long from like 7am till almost 8pm and none of it stuck, just all white rain, not even so much as a dusting or coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Oh of course it can easily snow in March but if it's not coming down at night, it will have a hell of a time accumulating during daylight hours unless it is thumping really good. You need heavy rates. Climo, sun angle and length of day really become factors once you get to March 1st and thereafter. I remember it was definitely March of 2015 and it was definitely a Friday, I forget the exact date, but it snowed moderately literally all day long from like 7am till almost 8pm and none of it stuck, just all white rain, not even so much as a dusting or coating Friday 3/20/15, 3.1" IMBY, it did settle to 3" at the stake though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Oh of course it can easily snow in March but if it's not coming down at night, it will have a hell of a time accumulating during daylight hours unless it is thumping really good. You need heavy rates. Climo, sun angle and length of day really become factors once you get to March 1st and thereafter. I remember it was definitely March of 2015 and it was definitely a Friday, I forget the exact date, but it snowed moderately literally all day long from like 7am till almost 8pm and none of it stuck, just all white rain, not even so much as a dusting or coating Yep, that was a Friday. I'm surprised you didn't do better with that one. Definitely elevation dependent, I'm above 600 ft. and got 3.9" Anyway, like you said, the long days and sun angle will do a number on any snow that does decide to fall. Even today you can tell how much higher the sun is climbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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