NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 4 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Hard to believe you ankle biters are in your 30's already....hint; it goes even faster from here on out Yeah, got married last Summer. No kids on the way yet. Want to enjoy being married first. Have a trip to Vegas planned in April and a ten day cruise in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 3 hours ago, North and West of Town said: I'm one town over from Morris Plains - I can't see how that 33" total was real, but that's my $0.02. (We still had 25" or so) Sometimes a few miles can make a huge difference. For example, for Boxing Day I had 16" IMBY, one town over in Wayne had reports between 22-24". A big deform band setup literally just to my East and I sucked some subsidence towards the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Getting some nice gusts here in Long Beach. My power just flickered off for a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Getting some nice gusts here in Long Beach. My power just flickered off for a few minutes. Had my highest gust of the day at 8pm (30 mph) here at my station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Getting some nice gusts here in Long Beach. My power just flickered off for a few minutes. Good old CAA. Winds tend to peak right as the caa is peaking usually in the evening. Long Beach is such a windy place in the winter as a result and often feels like a much colder place then it actually is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Dry zone just west of the I-95 corridor between the cutter to the west and coastals to the east. How come eastern LI and southern CT are in such a drought though? Looks like the cape is too. And the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 6 hours ago, Paragon said: How come eastern LI and southern CT are in such a drought though? Looks like the cape is too. And the Poconos. This is the drought monitor. The other map is precip departure from normal since 11/18/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 This morning's SOI was -51.97. That's the lowest figure since the 2009-10 El Niño was in its late stages. The last time the SOI was at least as low was February 6, 2010 with a value of -58.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: This morning's SOI was -51.97. That's the lowest figure since the 2009-10 El Niño was in its late stages. The last time the SOI was at least as low was February 6, 2010 with a value of -58.50. Ok so what I take from that is we have another Snowicane coming at the end of this month just like we did at the end of Feb 2010. I kid, I kid. Thanks Don for your many years of excellent posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 56 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: This morning's SOI was -51.97. That's the lowest figure since the 2009-10 El Niño was in its late stages. The last time the SOI was at least as low was February 6, 2010 with a value of -58.50. the latest oni weekly number is +0.1...We could see an el nino before the Summer?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: This morning's SOI was -51.97. That's the lowest figure since the 2009-10 El Niño was in its late stages. The last time the SOI was at least as low was February 6, 2010 with a value of -58.50. Followed by snowmaggedon. Not saying ,, but just saying .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Followed by snowmaggedon. Not saying ,, but just saying .... Given the SOI, strong MJO in the favorable phases and hopefully that -EPO and possble -NAO come to fruition....could be a great couple weeks on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Given the SOI, strong MJO in the favorable phases and hopefully that -EPO and possble -NAO come to fruition....could be a great couple weeks on tap. So hard to pull the trigger on anything . How many times has the guidance looked great and backed off . There will be a ton of energy crossing the conus between day 8 and 15 so it's possible 1 or 2 of those get forced under the block . For now I will wait 5 days out before even taking a second look . But - 52 is wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 31 minutes ago, PB GFI said: So hard to pull the trigger on anything . How many times has the guidance looked great and backed off . There will be a ton of energy crossing the conus between day 8 and 15 so it's possible 1 or 2 of those get forced under the block . For now I will wait 5 days out before even taking a second look . But - 52 is wow. Yeah, ensembles keep holding on to that stubborn SE Ridge through day 11-15. We would need that SE ridge to let up a bit beyond the 11-15 day to have a window of opportunity for some wintery weather in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, ensembles keep holding on to that stubborn SE Ridge through day 11-15. We would need that SE ridge to let up a bit beyond the 11-15 day to have a window of opportunity for some wintery weather in early March. Agreed. Perhaps we can cash in a bit with a SWFE turning to rain similar to what happened in December (NYC received 2.5 and Coastal CT 5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Next 7 days are a little more obscene today compared to yesterday +12degs., say 48 vs. 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Next 7 days are a little more obscene today compared to yesterday +12degs., say 48 vs. 36. Going to be a mega torch....a dry one it looks like, but it will put the ! mark on a warm met winter with Feb coming in +5 or better in all liklihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Ok so what I take from that is we have another Snowicane coming at the end of this month just like we did at the end of Feb 2010. I kid, I kid. Thanks Don for your many years of excellent posts. This could be a signal that the 2/25-3/10 period could feature one or two fairly significant storms. That doesn't necessarily mean snowstorms, but given the forecast EPO-/March climatology following La Niña winters, and a cluster of 4" or greater snowstorms with a positive SOI in the 3/1-10 period, I have above usual confidence that there will be at least some measurable snowfall during the 2/25-3/10 period. The synoptic details will be crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed. Perhaps we can cash in a bit with a SWFE turning to rain similar to what happened in December (NYC received 2.5 and Coastal CT 5). The new weeklies were hinting at a possible window to watch for around March 6-13 when the SE ridge relaxes a bit. But we will have to wait and see how that turns out since I would like to see that in the 6-10 or 11-15 range first to have more confidence in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 hoping to hit 65 plus this weekend in Belle Mead. Should be a great weekend for everyone to get outdoors and walk about...enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 I think you're going to see a pretty stark contrast between Southern NJ and Northern NJ over the weekend. Southern areas are probably going to be pushing 70 degress while places like Sparta struggle to get above 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: The new weeklies were hinting at a possible window to watch for around March 6-13 when the SE ridge relaxes a bit. But we will have to wait and see how that turns out since I would like to see that in the 6-10 or 11-15 range first to have more confidence in it. Is the SE ridge prior to this time that much of a detriment? Meaning could it be muted just enough to get a front ender? I remember the SE ridge being present in DEC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 17 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah, got married last Summer. No kids on the way yet. Want to enjoy being married first. Have a trip to Vegas planned in April and a ten day cruise in July. we were married 9 years before having kids...kind of glad we got to enjoy that period b/c once the kids come, its all great stuff, but life is completely different now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, ensembles keep holding on to that stubborn SE Ridge through day 11-15. We would need that SE ridge to let up a bit beyond the 11-15 day to have a window of opportunity for some wintery weather in early March. That`s why even though I see this , SOI 15 Feb 2017 1009.58 1009.75 -23.58 -0.37 2.40 16 Feb 2017 1005.99 1009.60 -40.11 -1.48 2.09 17 Feb 2017 1003.17 1009.25 -51.97 -2.33 1.47 And I see this This still is the bully in the guidance . Now if that trough is able to break east then I think the period between Feb 25 - March 10 could turn favorable . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 ANY WAY IT`S TIME TO START AN ENSO THREAD . IT`S COMING . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Is the SE ridge prior to this time that much of a detriment? Meaning could it be muted just enough to get a front ender? I remember the SE ridge being present in DEC too. It won't be as much a problem for inland locations, however for coastal regions it will be for an all snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Going to be a mega torch....a dry one it looks like, but it will put the ! mark on a warm met winter with Feb coming in +5 or better in all liklihood. Let's really mega torch so we can get in the top ten warmest winter. Then we have another potential winter period that hopefully produces at least one 6"+ storm area wide. This would fit the winter pattern. Ending a week of solid snow cover out here on the island today/tomorrow. A winter like this is actually a good thing in my opinion assuming we do score that final winter period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Widespread middle 60's next Thursday on the GFS before Eastern areas get backdoored on Friday. 70 in Philly with most of LI struggling to hit 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Widespread middle 60's next Thursday on the GFS before Eastern areas get backdoored on Friday. 70 in Philly with most of LI struggling to hit 50. That's probably the outcome philly south sees temps in the 60's and close to 70 while northern areas struggle to get to 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Widespread middle 60's next Thursday on the GFS before Eastern areas get backdoored on Friday. 70 in Philly with most of LI struggling to hit 50. that's a map you'd see in Mid April. Extreme warmth over the mid section of the country continues as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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