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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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4 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Hard to believe you ankle biters are in your 30's already....hint; it goes even faster from here on out

Yeah, got married last Summer. No kids on the way yet. Want to enjoy being married first. Have a trip to Vegas planned in April and a ten day cruise in July.

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3 hours ago, North and West of Town said:

I'm one town over from Morris Plains - I can't see how that 33" total was real, but that's my $0.02. (We still had 25" or so)

Sometimes a few miles can make a huge difference. For example, for Boxing Day I had 16" IMBY, one town over in Wayne had reports between 22-24". A big deform band setup literally just to my East and I sucked some subsidence towards the end of the storm.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Getting some nice gusts here in Long Beach. My power just flickered off for a few minutes.

Good old CAA. Winds tend to peak right as the caa is peaking usually in the evening. Long Beach is such a windy place in the winter as a result and often feels like a much colder place then it actually is 

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning's SOI was -51.97. That's the lowest figure since the 2009-10 El Niño was in its late stages. The last time the SOI was at least as low was February 6, 2010 with a value of -58.50.

Ok so what I take from that is we have another Snowicane coming at the end of this month just like we did at the end of Feb 2010. 

I kid, I kid. Thanks Don for your many years of excellent posts. 

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56 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning's SOI was -51.97. That's the lowest figure since the 2009-10 El Niño was in its late stages. The last time the SOI was at least as low was February 6, 2010 with a value of -58.50.

the latest oni weekly number is +0.1...We could see an el nino before the Summer?...

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning's SOI was -51.97. That's the lowest figure since the 2009-10 El Niño was in its late stages. The last time the SOI was at least as low was February 6, 2010 with a value of -58.50.

 

Followed by snowmaggedon. 

Not saying ,,  but just saying ....

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Given the SOI, strong MJO in the favorable phases and hopefully that -EPO and possble -NAO come to fruition....could be a great couple weeks on tap.

So hard to pull the trigger on anything . How many times has the guidance looked great and backed off .

There will be a ton of energy crossing the conus between day 8 and 15 so it's possible 1 or 2 of those get forced under the block .

 

For now I will wait 5 days out before even taking a second look .

 

But - 52 is wow.

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31 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

So hard to pull the trigger on anything . How many times has the guidance looked great and backed off .

There will be a ton of energy crossing the conus between day 8 and 15 so it's possible 1 or 2 of those get forced under the block .

 

For now I will wait 5 days out before even taking a second look .

 

But - 52 is wow.

Yeah, ensembles keep holding on to that stubborn SE Ridge through day 11-15. We would need that SE ridge to let up a bit beyond the

11-15 day to have a window of opportunity for some wintery weather in early March.

 

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, ensembles keep holding on to that stubborn SE Ridge through day 11-15. We would need that SE ridge to let up a bit beyond the

11-15 day to have a window of opportunity for some wintery weather in early March.

 

A.png

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Agreed. Perhaps we can cash in a bit with a SWFE turning to rain similar to what happened in December (NYC received 2.5 and Coastal CT 5). 

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Ok so what I take from that is we have another Snowicane coming at the end of this month just like we did at the end of Feb 2010. 

I kid, I kid. Thanks Don for your many years of excellent posts. 

This could be a signal that the 2/25-3/10 period could feature one or two fairly significant storms. That doesn't necessarily mean snowstorms, but given the forecast EPO-/March climatology following La Niña winters, and a cluster of 4" or greater snowstorms with a positive SOI in the 3/1-10 period, I have above usual confidence that there will be at least some measurable snowfall during the 2/25-3/10 period. The synoptic details will be crucial.

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28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed. Perhaps we can cash in a bit with a SWFE turning to rain similar to what happened in December (NYC received 2.5 and Coastal CT 5). 

The new weeklies were hinting at a possible window to watch for around March 6-13 when the SE ridge relaxes a bit. But we will have to wait and

see how that turns out since I would like to see that in the 6-10 or 11-15 range first to have more confidence in it.

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The new weeklies were hinting at a possible window to watch for around March 6-13 when the SE ridge relaxes a bit. But we will have to wait and

see how that turns out since I would like to see that in the 6-10 or 11-15 range first to have more confidence in it.

Is the SE ridge prior to this time that much of a detriment? Meaning could it be muted just enough to get a front ender? I remember the SE ridge being present in DEC too.

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17 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Yeah, got married last Summer. No kids on the way yet. Want to enjoy being married first. Have a trip to Vegas planned in April and a ten day cruise in July.

we were married 9 years before having kids...kind of glad we got to enjoy that period b/c once the kids come, its all great stuff, but life is completely different now!

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, ensembles keep holding on to that stubborn SE Ridge through day 11-15. We would need that SE ridge to let up a bit beyond the

11-15 day to have a window of opportunity for some wintery weather in early March.

 

A.png

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C.png

 

That`s why even though I see this , 

SOI

15 Feb 2017 1009.58 1009.75 -23.58 -0.37 2.40
16 Feb 2017 1005.99 1009.60 -40.11 -1.48 2.09
17 Feb 2017 1003.17 1009.25 -51.97 -2.33 1.47

 

And I  see this 

 

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

This still is the bully in the guidance . Now if that trough is able to break east then I think the period between Feb 25 - March 10 could turn favorable . 

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Is the SE ridge prior to this time that much of a detriment? Meaning could it be muted just enough to get a front ender? I remember the SE ridge being present in DEC too.

It won't be as much a problem for inland locations, however for coastal regions it will be for an all snow event.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Going to be a mega torch....a dry one it looks like, but it will put the ! mark on a warm met winter with Feb coming in +5 or better in all liklihood.

Let's really mega torch so we can get in the top ten warmest winter. Then we have another potential winter period that hopefully produces at least one 6"+ storm area wide. This would fit the winter pattern. Ending a week of solid snow cover out here on the island today/tomorrow. A winter like this is actually a good thing in my opinion assuming we do score that final winter period 

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Widespread middle 60's next Thursday on the GFS before Eastern areas get backdoored on Friday. 70 in Philly with most of LI struggling to hit 50.

That's probably the outcome philly south sees temps in the 60's and close to 70 while northern areas struggle to get to 50.

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