donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 57 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see how large and influence the +PDO can exert in March now that the La Nina has officially ended. The long range guidance into March wants to default to the standard March +PDO composite with plenty of ridging near Alaska and Western Canada. The EPS are moving in that direction near the end of February and beginning of March along with the new JMA that just came out today. Should that pattern verify, more measurable snow would be on the table. I agree. Also, with respect to the possible development of a new El Niño, today's SOI value is -40.11. That's the lowest figure since April 20, 2016 when it was -45.35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. Also, with respect to the possible development of a new El Niño, today's SOI value is -40.11. That's the lowest figure since April 20, 2016 when it was -45.35. Yeah, this would be the earliest return of an El Nino following a super El Nino since the 1870's should the models be correct. Many considerations from the sensible weather patterns to global temps going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The biggest knock on 12/26 is that DC saw nothing and Boston saw nothing like what NYC saw. Part of what makes 96' so incredible is the tremendous total area impacted. Just compare the areas of 18"+ snowfall. It's not even close. Yep, I still remember how major highway after major highway got shut down Sunday afternoon as the snow came in like a wall of white. The major cities were shut down for nearly a week after the storm, as mass transit was snowed in too (the LIRR was here, too much snow on the tracks to clear.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, this would be the earliest return of an El Nino following a super El Nino since the 1870's should the models be correct. Many considerations from the sensible weather patterns and global temps going forward. Don, BW, etc- do you think the return of an el nino means a cooler summer or not necessarily? I keep looking at 2002-03 as an example of a hot summer just preceding an el nino (which ended up being quite strong.) Is this upcoming el nino progged to be weak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. Also, with respect to the possible development of a new El Niño, today's SOI value is -40.11. That's the lowest figure since April 20, 2016 when it was -45.35. Some research indicates that there's an increased likelihood of late season snowstorms in the winter before an oncoming el nino. Some examples are April 1982 and April 1997. Granted both were very strong, I'm not sure about the connection with weaker ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: Don, BW, etc- do you think the return of an el nino means a cooler summer or not necessarily? I keep looking at 2002-03 as an example of a hot summer just preceding an el nino (which ended up being quite strong.) Is this upcoming el nino progged to be weak? We have to wait on specifics since we are still in the spring forecast barrier time period for the models with ENSO. That's why forecasters don't like making ENSO forecasts this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: We have to wait on specifics since we are still in the spring forecast barrier time period for the models with ENSO. That's why forecasters don't like making ENSO forecasts this time of year. Oh that's right- we won't have a clearer picture until June. A few years ago I remember we were supposed to get an el nino that never happened (but happened a year later instead.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Jan. 2016 was much closer to Jan. 1996 then Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, ag3 said: Jan. 2016 was much closer to Jan. 1996 then Boxing Day. Yeah, Jan 2016 was NESIS 4 wasn't it? I would actually have put it ahead of March 1960 and into third place behind March 1993 and January 1996- they seem to have missed the 30"+ totals, even though JFK and many locations in our area reported them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: We have to wait on specifics since we are still in the spring forecast barrier time period for the models with ENSO. That's why forecasters don't like making ENSO forecasts this time of year. I agree. It's very difficult to have much confidence in the fall/winter ENSO state from this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 44 minutes ago, ag3 said: Jan. 2016 was much closer to Jan. 1996 then Boxing Day. It was comparable to 96 down in the Mid-Atlantic but New England missed out almost completely. Personally I had over 30" here in 96' and had less than 24" here last January. Loved the long duration though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It was comparable to 96 down in the Mid-Atlantic but New England missed out almost completely. Personally I had over 30" here in 96' and had less than 24" here last January. Loved the long duration though. Looks like the 30" totals missed you but not by a lot- didn't Morris Plains have 34" in that storm and Somerville had 30"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 27 minutes ago, Paragon said: Looks like the 30" totals missed you but not by a lot- didn't Morris Plains have 34" in that storm and Somerville had 30"? It was a good storm, I was a little too far North for the huge totals. I remember two or three days out it looked like I wouldn't get anything so I cannot complain, it just wasn't on the same level for me as one of the all time greats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It was a good storm, I was a little too far North for the huge totals. I remember two or three days out it looked like I wouldn't get anything so I cannot complain, it just wasn't on the same level for me as one of the all time greats. What would you say your top three were? Jan 96, PD2 and Feb 2010? (the last storm of the month and season, the one which retrograded.) Amazing thing about PD2 was, it gave record totals (at the time) to Baltimore, JFK and Boston-- all in the same storm, that's pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 23 minutes ago, Paragon said: What would you say your top three were? Jan 96, PD2 and Feb 2010? (the last storm of the month and season, the one which retrograded.) Amazing thing about PD2 was, it gave record totals (at the time) to Baltimore, JFK and Boston-- all in the same storm, that's pretty rare. January 96 is first all time, nothing else even comes close. I was actually away in Florida for PD2, but I know that I came home to an over 30" snowpack. We were actually supposed to fly home the day of the storm and didn't get back until three days later. Boxing Day was extra special because if you remember all the modeling was East and we weren't sure it was coming until the day before. The winds were also by far the most extreme I've ever experienced in a snowstorm. As far as totals are concerned, I had a very pedestrian 16" where I used to live, and places 30 miles to my West had less than 6". I remember driving out to PA on I-80 for New Years and once I got out by Hacketstown you could see the grass. February 25-27 2010 was an all time great here. Had 15" of almost pure cement, and long duration. It was great considering I missed out completely on the two early February storms that crushed DC. Places 15 miles to my North into the hills had over 30". Christmas 2002 was special, had 9" IMBY. It started snowing in the morning on Christmas Day and lasted until well into the night. One of the few snowstorms I recall where the majority of the snow fell on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 last year storm was the best in terms of constant heavy snow you had little of any breaks...and remember the 1996 had far better snow ratios due to how cold it was when the snow started it was like 11 degrees in nyc when it started snowing...if last year storm was that cold 40 inches in a few spots would be possible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, nycwinter said: last year storm was the best in terms of constant heavy snow you had little of any breaks...and remember the 1996 had far better snow ratios due to how cold it was when the snow started it was like 11 degrees in nyc when it started snowing...if last year storm was that cold 40 inches in a few spots would be possible.. Other thing about last year's storm is that those last bands of heavy snow that just did not want to quit- first time I've ever experienced a 36 hr snowstorm. We had close to 3" of liquid here in that behemoth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Saturday looks like it could be an upside surprise on high temperatures as the surface 2m T's look too cool for toasty 850's and deep SW flow. back to back 60s? could be mid 60s too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 52 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: January 96 is first all time, nothing else even comes close. I was actually away in Florida for PD2, but I know that I came home to an over 30" snowpack. We were actually supposed to fly home the day of the storm and didn't get back until three days later. Boxing Day was extra special because if you remember all the modeling was East and we weren't sure it was coming until the day before. The winds were also by far the most extreme I've ever experienced in a snowstorm. As far as totals are concerned, I had a very pedestrian 16" where I used to live, and places 30 miles to my West had less than 6". I remember driving out to PA on I-80 for New Years and once I got out by Hacketstown you could see the grass. February 25-27 2010 was an all time great here. Had 15" of almost pure cement, and long duration. It was great considering I missed out completely on the two early February storms that crushed DC. Places 15 miles to my North into the hills had over 30". Christmas 2002 was special, had 9" IMBY. It started snowing in the morning on Christmas Day and lasted until well into the night. One of the few snowstorms I recall where the majority of the snow fell on Christmas Day. Yes all those were very special to me, Boxing day was the best belated present ever. Before that, Xmas 2002 had earned those honors lol. I don't know if you were around for these but the other two I'd put up there are April 1982 and February 1983. April 1982 gave us about a foot of snow and a full week of cold, which I don't think has ever happened here before and hasn't happened since. Temps in the teens in April with thundersnow and a full week of cold that kept the snow on the ground! And of course February 1983 which was a good analog for the storm we had last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 14 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yes all those were very special to me, Boxing day was the best belated present ever. Before that, Xmas 2002 had earned those honors lol. I don't know if you were around for these but the other two I'd put up there are April 1982 and February 1983. April 1982 gave us about a foot of snow and a full week of cold, which I don't think has ever happened here before and hasn't happened since. Temps in the teens in April with thundersnow and a full week of cold that kept the snow on the ground! And of course February 1983 which was a good analog for the storm we had last year. Yeah I was born in 85 so 96 is the biggest storm of my childhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 12 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yes all those were very special to me, Boxing day was the best belated present ever. Before that, Xmas 2002 had earned those honors lol. I don't know if you were around for these but the other two I'd put up there are April 1982 and February 1983. April 1982 gave us about a foot of snow and a full week of cold, which I don't think has ever happened here before and hasn't happened since. Temps in the teens in April with thundersnow and a full week of cold that kept the snow on the ground! And of course February 1983 which was a good analog for the storm we had last year. I was 19 and a sophomore in college in 82, and no one could believe it was April. At the time it was mindblowing, though we have seen snow in April before and since, but not with such cold. It really felt like a mid Jan storm and in those days, a good 8-12 inches was as big a blizzard as you were ever gonna see. No one had snowblowers back then, and I still remember my late dad looking at the driveway and saying" you shovel snow like I s*!t...." I didn't even have a pair of boots but went around in Brooks running shoes which were not warm or waterproof... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah I was born in 85 so 96 is the biggest storm of my childhood. Hard to believe you ankle biters are in your 30's already....hint; it goes even faster from here on out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 19 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Hard to believe you ankle biters are in your 30's already....hint; it goes even faster from here on out Sure does. 45 here, once the kiddos came along things really sped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 3 hours ago, Paragon said: Don, BW, etc- do you think the return of an el nino means a cooler summer or not necessarily? I keep looking at 2002-03 as an example of a hot summer just preceding an el nino (which ended up being quite strong.) Is this upcoming el nino progged to be weak? I seem to recall El Ninos following La Ninas are usually cooler than El Ninos following neutrals. The 01-02 winter was more neutral than a La Nina. If you solely look at ENSO and nothing else. 1968 and 2009 would be the most similar years to look at as they both were developing Ninos following La Ninas around -0.7 to -0.9 or so. Both were fairly cool, 1968 looks like it got warmer in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Next 7 days to average an obscene +11degs. Say 46 vs. a normal of 35,36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 3 hours ago, Paragon said: Looks like the 30" totals missed you but not by a lot- didn't Morris Plains have 34" in that storm and Somerville had 30"? I'm one town over from Morris Plains - I can't see how that 33" total was real, but that's my $0.02. (We still had 25" or so) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 5 hours ago, Paragon said: Yep, I still remember how major highway after major highway got shut down Sunday afternoon as the snow came in like a wall of white. The major cities were shut down for nearly a week after the storm, as mass transit was snowed in too (the LIRR was here, too much snow on the tracks to clear.) I hate the sips snowfall map for 96. Southwest CT had widespread 27 inch reports. This show up to 18 which is incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I hate the sips snowfall map for 96. Southwest CT had widespread 27 inch reports. This show up to 18 which is incorrect. nyc got just over 20 inches for the 1996 storms but many places got 10 inches more philly got over 30 inches places on long island had similar numbers.. but nyc only got just over 20 inches.. bad snow measuring anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Most of our area is still moderate to severe drought stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 20 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Most of our area is still moderate to severe drought stage Dry zone just west of the I-95 corridor between the cutter to the west and coastals to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.