February 2017 Discussion & Observations

[Paragon]

30 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There were some shingles thrown off roofs in Long Beach. Not much tree damage-whatever's weak has been knocked down already by past storms.

Would you say this was the third strongest wind event for you, after Sandy and March 2010?

[donsutherland1]

26 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Thanks Don, unfortunately the local TV stations only report airport wind speeds   It's good to see that the 60+ winds had a much wider coverage.

Saw a few 70+ reports in there too!

 

There's a few laggers in the 40s range on the east end and south shore, which I find suspect because those are usually the windiest places on the Island, that's probably a siting issue?

 

With regard to TV stations, that's not an uncommon issue. Sadly, at least some stations regularly take short cuts such as relying on only a small sample of locations that may not always be representative of conditions. The Island is a big place and relying on a small number of stations for data can be perilous.

It doesn't take much time to take a quick glance at the latest PNS, Mesonet data, and even the latest model guidance (even on the 11 pm news, some stations have a tendency not to report on the available 0z guidance) ahead of a broadcast to be up-to-date. Unfortunately, that doesn't always happen.

I agree that possible site-related issues were probably involved in some of the areas registering lower wind gusts.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Paragon said:

lol were winters 34-35 and 35-36 this mild after Feb 1934, BW? ;-)

Last winter broke all sorts of records for warmth+record snowfall

We have been doing well in general for the 2000's winters that finished up with a positive temperature departure.

Only 4 out of the 9 winters since 00-01 with above average winter temperatures failed to reach 20" inches of snow around the area.

Positive temperature departure winters with 20" or more...16-17..15-16...12-13..05-06..04-05...Only 4 with under 20"...11-12...07-08...06-07..01-02

 

[Brian5671]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have been doing well in general for the 2000's winters that finished up with a positive temperature departure.

Only 4 out of the 9 winters since 00-01 with above average winter temperatures failed to reach 20" inches of snow around the area.

Positive temperature departure winters with 20" or more...16-17..15-16...12-13..05-06..04-05...Only 4 with under 20"...11-12...07-08...06-07..01-02

 

01-02 and 11-12 were bone dry...would have been interesting to see if we could have gotten a few snow events there if there were more storms.

[JerseyWx]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have been doing well in general for the 2000's winters that finished up with a positive temperature departure.

Only 4 out of the 9 winters since 00-01 with above average winter temperatures failed to reach 20" inches of snow around the area.

Positive temperature departure winters with 20" or more...16-17..15-16...12-13..05-06..04-05...Only 4 with under 20"...11-12...07-08...06-07..01-02

 

This winter reminds me of last year, excluding the blizzard of course.  We get these little cold windows, and some how snow to go along with them.  On the contrary, and maybe I'm wrong, I feel like last winter the cold had more duration, especially in Jan. and Feb.

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

This winter reminds me of last year, excluding the blizzard of course.  We get these little cold windows, and some how snow to go along with them.  On the contrary, and maybe I'm wrong, I feel like last winter the cold had more duration, especially in Jan. and Feb.

it's not all that different in some ways.   This year's blizzard hit further north strking the areas that were largely missed last year.  This year looks to have a warm 2nd half of Feb like last year.  March will be the wildcard...last years's March was an inferno.

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

01-02 and 11-12 were bone dry...would have been interesting to see if we could have gotten a few snow events there if there were more storms.

The only way we seem to be able to fall below a 20" season since 00-01 were the 4 years when the +EPO ran the table in 01-02, 06-07, 07-08, and 11-12.

Warmth can be overcome like we saw with the few favorable -EPO intervals and brief KB and AO blocks this winter.

 

44 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

This winter reminds me of last year, excluding the blizzard of course.  We get these little cold windows, and some how snow to go along with them.  On the contrary, and maybe I'm wrong, I feel like last winter the cold had more duration, especially in Jan. and Feb.

Yeah, both blizzards this winter and last were a product of KB blocks building back and dropping the AO. So that region saved us again for a second year in a row.

But the KB and AO blocking last winter leading to the 30" totals with the blizzard was much stronger. Last winter really had everything. Historic December warmth,

biggest blizzard on record around NYC in January, and the first below zero reading in February since 1994. This will be the first back to back

winters so mild with over 20" around the area on record.

[Paragon]

BW was a +EPO much more common in the 70s and 80s when we were having all those awful low snowfall winters, even though the winters were colder back then than they are now?

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

There were some shingles thrown off roofs in Long Beach. Not much tree damage-whatever's weak has been knocked down already by past storms.

72mph in White Plains I believe is higher than Sandy.  Very high wind reading for the area.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, Paragon said:

BW was a +EPO much more common in the 70s and 80s when we were having all those awful low snowfall winters, even though the winters were colder back then than they are now?

The 80's did fairly well with most of the winters very close to or over 20". Seems like dryness was more of an issue since we had some great

blocking winters.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 80's did fairly well with most of the winters very close to or over 20". Seems like dryness was more of an issue since we had some

really great blocking winters.

I remember in the winter of 84-85, there was a great period of cold weather in Feb and it was just bone dry the entire time...days of low 30's and sun....

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I remember in the winter of 84-85, there was a great period of cold weather in Feb and it was just bone dry the entire time...days of low 30's and sun....

Yeah, cold and dry winter intervals were much more common from the late 70's into the 80's. Luckily, our recent cold winters like 13-14 and 14-15 were cold and snowy instead.

[christhesnowman]

Anyone see how close the 18z nam is to bringing snow to NYC?

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, Paragon said:

BW could this winter end up in the top 5 warmest?

I believe last winter was the warmest on record (thanks to Dec) and of course the warmest with 30" of snow at NYC and warmest with 40" of snow at JFK.

Warmest two winters in a row we've ever had?

20 consecutive months above normal- is that the record?

 

Here are the warmest winter on record rankings through Feb13th.

Bridgeport is the winner so far

BDR...#4

LGA...#5

JFK...#5

ISP...#8

EWR..#9

NYC...#14....37.8.....#10....38.1

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

it's not all that different in some ways.   This year's blizzard hit further north strking the areas that were largely missed last year.  This year looks to have a warm 2nd half of Feb like last year.  March will be the wildcard...last years's March was an inferno.

Yeah, quite similar for sure.  The one difference of course was the lack of a true arctic cold shot, like the one we got in Feb. last year that gave many of us below zero temps, including NYC.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The only way we seem to be able to fall below a 20" season since 00-01 were the 4 years when the +EPO ran the table in 01-02, 06-07, 07-08, and 11-12.

Warmth can be overcome like we saw with the few favorable -EPO intervals and brief KB and AO blocks this winter.

 

Yeah, both blizzards this winter and last were a product of KB blocks building back and dropping the AO. So that region saved us again for a second year in a row.

But the KB and AO blocking last winter leading to the 30" totals with the blizzard was much stronger. Last winter really had everything. Historic December warmth,

biggest blizzard on record around NYC in January, and the first below zero reading in February since 1994. This will be the first back to back

winters so mild with over 20" around the area on record.

Last year was an incredible one for weather.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah, quite similar for sure.  The one difference of course was the lack of a true arctic cold shot, like the one we got in Feb. last year that gave many of us below zero temps, including NYC.

Last year was an incredible one for weather.

Yeah, no snowstorm in the 13-14 or 14-15 winter was as good as the blizzard was for me last winter. None of the extended cold during the 13-14 or 14-15 winters

could produce the first below zero reading in NYC since 1994 that we saw last winter.

 

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 80's did fairly well with most of the winters very close to or over 20". Seems like dryness was more of an issue since we had some great

blocking winters.

Must have been coastal snows though as the dryness of the winters in the late 70's and early 80's put many ski areas that couldn't afford good snowmaking systems out of business.  There were tons of small town hills and even some medium sized areas that couldn't open for several years in a row, some of them had been around since the 50's, so 20 years or more, and they had to throw in the towel.  A couple of them were even in high snowfall areas but it wasn't enough for them to go head to head with places like Hunter, Windham and Jiminy Peak who had deep enough pockets to install rudimentary snowmaking enabling them to pick up all of the business from the others and build those systems to become the successes that they are now.  There are only 4 ski areas left in the Catskills but there used to be over a dozen, more if you include town hills.

[JerseyWx]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, no snowstorm in the 13-14 or 14-15 winter was as good as the blizzard was for me last winter. None of the extended cold during the 13-14 or 14-15 winters

could produce the first below zero reading in NYC since 1994 that we saw last winter.

 

That's the interesting part.  One would think in such brutal and snowy winters like the ones you mentioned, a big snowstorm would have been expected.  Not only that, February '15 was so below normal, that it would seem impossible not to have at least reached zero.

13-14 was a great one for the snow lovers, and 14-15 was for the extended cold and snowpack guys.  November '14 was cold, and yet December '14 was pretty mild.  After that, the cold and snow returned with quite a vengeance.  First day of spring (March 20 2015) had 4 inches of snow here.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

That's the interesting part.  One would think in such brutal and snowy winters like the ones you mentioned, a big snowstorm would have been expected.  Not only that, February '15 was so below normal, that it would seem impossible not to have at least reached zero.

13-14 was a great one for the snow lovers, and 14-15 was for the extended cold and snowpack guys.  November '14 was cold, and yet December '14 was pretty mild.  After that, the cold and snow returned with quite a vengeance.  First day of spring (March 20 2015) had 4 inches of snow here.

The standout features of the 14-15 winter for me were the late January snowstorm shift further east and -10 cold in February with heavy ice on local waterways.

 

[Morris]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The standout features of the 14-15 winter for me were the late January snowstorm shift further east and -10 cold in February with heavy ice on local waterways.

 

Yup

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Must have been coastal snows though as the dryness of the winters in the late 70's and early 80's put many ski areas that couldn't afford good snowmaking systems out of business.  There were tons of small town hills and even some medium sized areas that couldn't open for several years in a row, some of them had been around since the 50's, so 20 years or more, and they had to throw in the towel.  A couple of them were even in high snowfall areas but it wasn't enough for them to go head to head with places like Hunter, Windham and Jiminy Peak who had deep enough pockets to install rudimentary snowmaking enabling them to pick up all of the business from the others and build those systems to become the successes that they are now.  There are only 4 ski areas left in the Catskills but there used to be over a dozen, more if you include town hills.

The 80's can basically be reduced to several memorable winter events for me.

1) Apr 6, 1982 blizzard

2) Feb 11,1983 blizzard

3) January 1985 record arctic outbreak

4) Surprise January 23,1987 snowstorm

5) Missing the Dec 13, 1988 record norlun snowstorm to my east

6) 3rd coldest on record Dec 1989..After the snows around Thanksgiving and cold December, I believed we were on the way to repeating the 76-77 winter.

The pattern shift to record warmth in January and February was probably one of my biggest winter weather surprises on record. Very glad that I didn't

have to issue a winter forecast for that year.

Can't forget the Christmas 1980 Arctic outbreak...

[weatherpruf]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 80's can basically be reduced to several memorable winter events for me.

1) Apr 6, 1982 blizzard

2) Feb 11,1983 blizzard

3) January 1985 record arctic outbreak

4) Surprise January 23,1987 snowstorm

5) Missing the Dec 13, 1988 record norlun snowstorm to my east

6) 3rd coldest on record Dec 1989..After the snows around Thanksgiving and cold December, I believed we were on the way to repeating the 76-77 winter.

The pattern shift to record warmth in January and February was probably one of my biggest winter weather surprises on record. Very glad that I didn't

have to issue a winter forecast for that year.

Can't forget the Christmas 1980 Arctic outbreak...

That Jan 87 storm was as close to a disaster as I have ever seen....began after everyone got to work and school, was largely not forecast to be so wicked, came down furiously as schools and businesses shut down early, jamming highways and leaving cars stranded along the highways. I took me 4 hours to get from Piscataway to Woodbridge on backroads I didn't recognize in visibility so bad all you could do was follow the tailights in front of you. And it came years after the last big snowstorm so no one was ready.

[Paragon]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 80's can basically be reduced to several memorable winter events for me.

1) Apr 6, 1982 blizzard

2) Feb 11,1983 blizzard

3) January 1985 record arctic outbreak

4) Surprise January 23,1987 snowstorm

5) Missing the Dec 13, 1988 record norlun snowstorm to my east

6) 3rd coldest on record Dec 1989..After the snows around Thanksgiving and cold December, I believed we were on the way to repeating the 76-77 winter.

The pattern shift to record warmth in January and February was probably one of my biggest winter weather surprises on record. Very glad that I didn't

have to issue a winter forecast for that year.

Can't forget the Christmas 1980 Arctic outbreak...

That was such an oddball pattern, yet so stable, it lasted for several years, including right through the early part of the 90s, getting warmer and drier.  If you go by years, the pattern actually began in 83-84 and lasted through 91-92.  The pattern started to break in 92-93 with all those strong noreasters.

[uncle W]

it looks like this winter will end up very mild...The Dec-Feb ave could be over 38.0 if February really torch's...

winter.....ave temp...min temp...30 day snow...total snow...4" snows or largest snow...

1879-80....38.5............7......................................22.7"

1889-90....37.9............7...............17.0"...............24.3"..........6.0".....6.0".....4.0"

1897-98....36.5............8.................8.9"...............21.1"..........5.0"

1905-06....36.7............7...............11.5"...............20.0"..........6.0".....6.5".....5.0"

1908-09....36.7............5...............11.4"...............20.3"..........5.1".....4.0"

1912-13....37.2..........11...............11.5"...............15.3"........11.4"

1918-19....36.6..........10.................2.7"................3.8"..........1.4"

1931-32....40.1..........15.................2.1"................5.3"...........2.0"

1932-33....37.8..........11...............15.4"...............27.0"..........7.2"...10.0"

1936-37....37.9..........13.................8.8"...............15.6"..........5.7"

1948-49....38.5..........10...............26.8"...............46.6"..........5.3"...16.0".....4.5".....4.6".....9.4"

1949-50....37.5............6.................8.9"...............13.8"..........3.8"

1951-52....37.0............8.................8.6"...............19.7"..........5.8".....4.0"

1952-53....38.1..........12.................7.5"...............15.1"..........4.5"

1953-54....37.4............7...............12.7"...............15.8"..........8.6"

1974-75....37.5..........15...............11.3"...............13.1"..........7.8"

1982-83....37.9..........12...............23.4"...............27.2"........17.6"

1990-91....39.2..........10...............15.6"...............24.9"..........7.2".....5.7".....8.9"

1991-92....37.2..........11.................9.4"...............12.6"..........6.2"

1994-95....37.1............6...............11.6"...............11.8"........10.8"

1996-97....37.8............4.................6.1"...............10.0"..........3.5"

1997-98....39.6..........14.................5.0".................5.5"..........5.0"

1998-99....38.7............9.................6.5"...............12.7"..........4.5"

2001-02....41.5..........19.................3.5".................3.5"..........3.0"

2005-06....37.3..........14...............28.9"...............40.0"..........5.8"...26.9"

2006-07....36.5............8.................7.8"...............12.4"..........5.5"

2011-12....40.5..........13..................4.5"................7.4"..........4.3"

2012-13....36.9..........11...............13.7"...............26.1"........11.4".....4.0"

2015-16....41.0...........-1...............31.9"...............32.8"........27.5"

2016-17....37.5 est....14................11.0"...............20.5"..........9.4"....5.1"....as of today...

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 80's can basically be reduced to several memorable winter events for me.

1) Apr 6, 1982 blizzard

2) Feb 11,1983 blizzard

3) January 1985 record arctic outbreak

4) Surprise January 23,1987 snowstorm

5) Missing the Dec 13, 1988 record norlun snowstorm to my east

6) 3rd coldest on record Dec 1989..After the snows around Thanksgiving and cold December, I believed we were on the way to repeating the 76-77 winter.

The pattern shift to record warmth in January and February was probably one of my biggest winter weather surprises on record. Very glad that I didn't

have to issue a winter forecast for that year.

Can't forget the Christmas 1980 Arctic outbreak...

January 1982 arctic outbreak could be on the list...Christmas 83 cold...

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The standout features of the 14-15 winter for me were the late January snowstorm shift further east and -10 cold in February with heavy ice on local waterways.

 

Yeah, without a doubt, cold comes to mind.  February defined that winter for me personally.

[tomcatct]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 80's can.w be ctwduced to several memo.rable  winter events for me.

1) Apr 6, 1982 blizzard

2) Feb 11,1983 blizzard

3) January 1985 record arctic outbreak

4) Surprise January 23,1987 snowstorm

5) Missing the Dec 13, 1988 record norlun snowstorm to my east

6) 3rd coldest on record Dec 1989..After the snows around Thanksgiving and cold December, I believed we were on the way to repeating the 76-77 winter.

The pattern shift to record warmth in January and February was probably one of my biggest winter weather surprises on record. Very glad that I didn't

have to issue a winter forecast for that year.

Can't forget the Christmas 1980 Arctic outbreak...

I remember the blizzard of 83..tons of thundernow..other than that, the 80's pretty much sucked if you liked snow in sw Ct

[Paragon]

10 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah, without a doubt, cold comes to mind.  February defined that winter for me personally.

That's the only time I can remember the ocean temps being below freezing and an east wind bringing in freezing drizzle on the east end.

[Paragon]

14 minutes ago, uncle W said:

January 1982 arctic outbreak could be on the list...Christmas 83 cold...

Long duration snowstorm in January 1982 too, overshadowed by the unprecedented blizzard in April

[Paragon]

23 minutes ago, uncle W said:

it looks like this winter will end up very mild...The Dec-Feb ave could be over 38.0 if February really torch's...

winter.....ave temp...min temp...30 day snow...total snow...4" snows or largest snow...

1879-80....38.5............7......................................22.7"

1889-90....37.9............7...............17.0"...............24.3"..........6.0".....6.0".....4.0"

1897-98....36.5............8.................8.9"...............21.1"..........5.0"

1905-06....36.7............7...............11.5"...............20.0"..........6.0".....6.5".....5.0"

1908-09....36.7............5...............11.4"...............20.3"..........5.1".....4.0"

1912-13....37.2..........11...............11.5"...............15.3"........11.4"

1918-19....36.6..........10.................2.7"................3.8"..........1.4"

1931-32....40.1..........15.................2.1"................5.3"...........2.0"

1932-33....37.8..........11...............15.4"...............27.0"..........7.2"...10.0"

1936-37....37.9..........13.................8.8"...............15.6"..........5.7"

1948-49....38.5..........10...............26.8"...............46.6"..........5.3"...16.0".....4.5".....4.6".....9.4"

1949-50....37.5............6.................8.9"...............13.8"..........3.8"

1951-52....37.0............8.................8.6"...............19.7"..........5.8".....4.0"

1952-53....38.1..........12.................7.5"...............15.1"..........4.5"

1953-54....37.4............7...............12.7"...............15.8"..........8.6"

1974-75....37.5..........15...............11.3"...............13.1"..........7.8"

1982-83....37.9..........12...............23.4"...............27.2"........17.6"

1990-91....39.2..........10...............15.6"...............24.9"..........7.2".....5.7".....8.9"

1991-92....37.2..........11.................9.4"...............12.6"..........6.2"

1994-95....37.1............6...............11.6"...............11.8"........10.8"

1996-97....37.8............4.................6.1"...............10.0"..........3.5"

1997-98....39.6..........14.................5.0".................5.5"..........5.0"

1998-99....38.7............9.................6.5"...............12.7"..........4.5"

2001-02....41.5..........19.................3.5".................3.5"..........3.0"

2005-06....37.3..........14...............28.9"...............40.0"..........5.8"...26.9"

2006-07....36.5............8.................7.8"...............12.4"..........5.5"

2011-12....40.5..........13..................4.5"................7.4"..........4.3"

2012-13....36.9..........11...............13.7"...............26.1"........11.4".....4.0"

2015-16....41.0...........-1...............31.9"...............32.8"........27.5"

2016-17....37.5 est....14................11.0"...............20.5"..........9.4"....5.1"....as of today...

Unc, the 48-49 winter was a real standout for how much snow one could get in such a warm winter, reminds me of last winter (and 2005-06) in some ways.  The main difference was the 48-49 winter also had several moderate sized events, which those other winters didn't have (and almost had two double digit major events to boot!)- which makes it even more amazing.