bluewave Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 The models continue to back off the degree of cold that they were showing for the first week of February. The cold days won't be all that cold for this time of year and the milder days go into the 40's and maybe 50+. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/31/2017 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 TUE 31| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03| SAT 04| SUN 05| MON 06| TUE 07 CLIMO X/N 37| 35 46| 31 39| 23 32| 21 36| 27 41| 33 47| 36 50 25 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Yep. I always thought the week of the 6th would be our week which went to hell quick on the models. I think that's a wrap for me on this winter. Awful. Glad we got that 4 day stretch in January or it could have been historically bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Amazing how this pattern continues. Not only is the cold short lived, but its really not far from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, JerseyWx said: Amazing how this pattern continues. Not only is the cold short lived, but its really not far from normal. Fat lady's gearing up on this winter. Just not happening. We've seen great patterns modeled all winter only to be much shorter/muted when it comes closer to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: Fat lady's gearing up on this winter. Just not happening. We've seen great patterns modeled all winter only to be much shorter/muted when it comes closer to reality Exactly. Whenever we get a cold period you can almost guarantee warmth behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Fat lady's gearing up on this winter. Just not happening. We've seen great patterns modeled all winter only to be much shorter/muted when it comes closer to reality Wouldn't count out either the next two weeks or the Feb 20-Mar 15 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The models continue to back off the degree of cold that they were showing for the first week of February. The cold days won't be all that cold for this time of year and the milder days go into the 40's and maybe 50+. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/31/2017 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 TUE 31| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03| SAT 04| SUN 05| MON 06| TUE 07 CLIMO X/N 37| 35 46| 31 39| 23 32| 21 36| 27 41| 33 47| 36 50 25 39 Amazing right after your response to my quote the SB storm idea looks to have fallen apart on the models. March is still an unknown and it only takes one major storm, but I am still hopeful for one last good period given the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Amazing right after your response to my quote the SB storm idea looks to have fallen apart on the models. March is still an unknown and it only takes one major storm, but I am still hopeful for one last good period given the trends. we can often get a snowstorm in a bad pattern, that's for sure...but I think the idea of any prolonged cold and snowy period is quickly going down the drain. The warmth is winning this year, the big cold remains on the other side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: we can often get a snowstorm in a bad pattern, that's for sure...but I think the idea of any prolonged cold and snowy period is quickly going down the drain. The warmth is winning this year, the big cold remains on the other side of the globe. Agreed. Lets hope we keep producing during the short cold spells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 I guess people aren't looking at the strat or tropo then. Next two weeks look decent then feb 15 on we'll get ours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: I guess people aren't looking at the strat or tropo then. Next two weeks look decent then feb 15 on we'll get ours Euro has a cutter 2/8. Everything ends up delayed...first it was 2/1 now it's 2/15...shades of 01-02 and 11-12 where the cold and snow was always modeled 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I guess people aren't looking at the strat or tropo then. Next two weeks look decent then feb 15 on we'll get ours The AO is currently forecasted to go negative. Hopefully that forecast stays the course. I wonder if Don is optimistic with the guidance or if its another false forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Euro has a cutter 2/8. Everything ends up delayed...first it was 2/1 now it's 2/15...shades of 01-02 and 11-12 where the cold and snow was always modeled 10 days out. 2/8 is a week from now and I wouldn't sleep on 2/5-6 just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: The AO is currently forecasted to go negative. Hopefully that forecast stays the course. I wonder if Don is optimistic with the guidance or if its another false forecast. The AO has not been negative since 12/1. It has been forecasted to go negative but it never happens. EPO goes positive in about a week which will take us back to our warm base state after this brief cooldown. I say cooldown b/c it's not even that cold-normal to slightly below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 Just now, EastonSN+ said: The AO is currently forecasted to go negative. Hopefully that forecast stays the course. I wonder if Don is optimistic with the guidance or if its another false forecast. Isotherms recent posts gives me hope. He's been on fire this winter. Pun intended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: The AO has not been negative since 12/1. It has been forecasted to go negative but it never happens. EPO goes positive in about a week which will take us back to our warm base state after this brief cooldown. I say cooldown b/c it's not even that cold-normal to slightly below. Worst nightmare would be for the AO/NAO to go negative when it's already too late to snow, I don't want a cool rainy spring after this winter. Besides the warmth, one of the worst things about this January was how little sun we saw. That's pretty rare- usually you get a few crystal clear and cold days and nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: The AO is currently forecasted to go negative. Hopefully that forecast stays the course. I wonder if Don is optimistic with the guidance or if its another false forecast. It's too soon for me to be confident about a persistent AO-. The ongoing stratospheric warming could be helpful (zonal winds have reversed at 1 mb), but it might not be sufficiently strong to bring about the desired change. Climatology also somewhat favors the AO- as February proceeds (51% days during the 2/1-14/1981-2010 period and 53% days during the 2/15-28/1981-2010 period). However, the stratospheric polar vortex has been resilient this winter. It's unclear whether the low sea ice situation has contributed to the persistence of that vortex. Currently, the spread on the ensembles is very wide and the extended range has had a fairly large negative bias in the forecasts. I'd like to see continuity in the guidance and a narrowing of the spread among the individual ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Euro has a cutter 2/8. Everything ends up delayed...first it was 2/1 now it's 2/15...shades of 01-02 and 11-12 where the cold and snow was always modeled 10 days out. This winter is light years better then 01-02 and 11-12. Both at the coast and inland. I had a trace with October 11 and 2.5" with January 12. That winter is the gold standerd for futility. Its snowing today and we will have at least a few more chances for something decent. All it would take is another decent storm to put this winter at avaerage on the island. So by no means a true ratter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: This winter is light years better then 01-02 and 11-12. Both at the coast and inland. I had a trace with October 11 and 2.5" with January 12. That winter is the gold standerd for futility. Its snowing today and we will have at least a few more chances for something decent. All it would take is another decent storm to put this winter at avaerage on the island. So by no means a true ratter! it's no 11-12 weatherwise, but it's the constant pushing back of the pattern that reminds me of that year...nothing ever moves up in time. 2/1 to 2/10 was supposed to be great, now we get cold that's not really that cold and a cutter early next week with 50's and 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 To beat an out of tune drum (but this one is tuned for summer) again, the first 7 days of the month could come in @+4degs. So what has changed? With second halve of Feb. looking like a Girl Scout Marshmallow Roasting Party, only week two clings to life. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Now the GFS and CMC along with the Euro show the potential for 60 degree record warmth ahead of the cutter next week. No atlantic blocking and a SE ridge from hell support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 This area is overdue for some awful winters after the last decade. It's just the law of averages. Sucks but that's what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Remember when less than a week ago most everyone was saying, at the very least the 1st half of Feb. was going to be cold and snowy? From the looks of it those two ''weeks' have been reduced to 2 hours , today probably netting a grand total of half an inch. Law of averages understood but when you have been waiting all year for winter very little can take the sting away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This area is overdue for some awful winters after the last decade. It's just the law of averages. Sucks but that's what it is. completely agree. Regression to the mean. We're overdue for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This area is overdue for some awful winters after the last decade. It's just the law of averages. Sucks but that's what it is. Yep. We got extremely lucky last year with the blizzard. Or it could have been two awful winters back to back. Most north and west of NYC didn't see much last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep. We extremely lucky last year with the blizzard. Or it could have been two awful winters back to back. Most north and west of NYC didn't see much last year This is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep. We extremely lucky last year with the blizzard. Or it could have been two awful winters back to back. Most north and west of NYC didn't see much last year The strong Nino last year was almost certain to produce at least one biggie from the subtropical jet. Luckily it was cold enough and blocking wasn't severe. 09-10, 82-83 and 97-98 were all very active. 97-98 overwhelmed with warm air so the storms came as rain. That year would've been way better if it was just a little colder-the tracks were actually good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The strong Nino last year was almost certain to produce at least one biggie from the subtropical jet. Luckily it was cold enough and blocking wasn't severe. 09-10, 82-83 and 97-98 were all very active. 97-98 overwhelmed with warm air so the storms came as rain. That year would've been way better if it was just a little colder-the tracks were actually good. 97-98 also had a mostly -AO too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 hours ago, Paragon said: Worst nightmare would be for the AO/NAO to go negative when it's already too late to snow, I don't want a cool rainy spring after this winter. Besides the warmth, one of the worst things about this January was how little sun we saw. That's pretty rare- usually you get a few crystal clear and cold days and nights. I know you don't want to hear it but there are actually some possible, emphasis on possible, early signs of just that. March may actually see NAO and AO blocking depending on what happens with the stratosphere come weeks 3 and 4 of February. I think February is another solidly above average/warmer than normal month, especially the 2nd half. The question then becomes March, but again, once we get to March you have the spring seasonal changes coming quickly. Climatology and sun angle start to become legit issues for cold and snow sustainability at that point for our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 28 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This area is overdue for some awful winters after the last decade. It's just the law of averages. Sucks but that's what it is. lol we're just trying to squeeze in some action before it stops- permanently. Based on the new sea level rise projections, I think a lot of us are going to have to move within the next few decades anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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