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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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1 minute ago, Paragon said:

Haven't the AO and NAO both been predominantly positive though?

That chart is showing you that they have been close to record levels out of phase over the last 30 days. But yeah, this has been a very +year with only short negative intervals.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That chart is showing you that they have been close to record levels out of phase over the last 30 days. But yeah, this has been a very +year with only short negative intervals.

Yep, I saw it in the second chart that although they've both been mostly positive, when one is increasing the other is decreasing lol.  Weird.

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Here are a few weather and climate stats to show how extreme the weather patterns continue to be.

This really is incredible. 30-day correlation of the NAO to the AO down to -0.68. This is the 6th lowest on record since 1950. pic.twitter.com/Jx4T4QPtNr

The ENSO included VPM index is pushing out into near-record territory this week wrt MJO amplitude in phase 1; 3.5 standard deviations! pic.twitter.com/mlUsQS3Cwj

In the first graph, what do the black, red and blue lines depict, BW? I don't see a color code labeling anywhere that says what each line depicts.

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37 minutes ago, Paragon said:

In the first graph, what do the black, red and blue lines depict, BW? I don't see a color code labeling anywhere that says what each line depicts.

Black is the actual and the blue is the record low or most out of phase record levels for each day.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The most similar or in phase records for each day.

Thanks, BW! and the grey shaded in and green parts are the values for each index on that particular day?

 

edit: I think I figured those out- the green is the average correlation on each particular day and the darker shaded grey area is the average correlation to within 1 SD and the lighter shaded grey areas outside of that are for within 2 SD?

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3 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Lol... your a lunatic... I love that stuff in spring/summer...btw here's a look at feb departures to date from normal... pretty epic warmth across most of the country, upper mid west has been the exception all year, and I think it stays that way through March/April/may 

IMG_1949.JPG

even the misleading wxbell color scale can't hide the warmth 

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On 2/3/2017 at 6:27 PM, JerseyWx said:

Honestly, I'm not quite sure of an exact figure.  Interestingly enough, on Tom's (Isotherm) map, I'm right on the border of 33-38" and 38-43."  On the Upton "Tri-State Climo" map below, I border the deep purple 35-40" area in Passaic county.  I'm right at the tip of Morris county, so it's basically the same thing.  With that said, I think 38" would be a good starting point as an average.  You've got me curious about town records/climo though, and I think rgwp96 would have a better idea.

snowclimo.PNG 

I just saw this , I would say our average is 40-45 depending on what elevation you are . I have been keeeping yearly records for the past  9 years and that average is about 45 .   Most snow I ever had in a season was 101 in 1996 . Least snow wa 19.1 in 2012 I believe . Biggest storm  30 plus inches  in 1996 , Best storm ever .  

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9 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

I just saw this , I would say our average is 40-45 depending on what elevation you are . I have been keeeping yearly records for the past 15 years and that average is about 45 .   Most snow I ever had in a season was 101 in 1996 . Least snow wa 19.1 in 2012 I believe . Biggest storm  30 plus inches  in 1996 , Best storm ever .  

Well we are re-drawing these maps. 15 year running avg for NYC is over 35" now.

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55 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

I just saw this , I would say our average is 40-45 depending on what elevation you are . I have been keeeping yearly records for the past  9 years and that average is about 45 .   Most snow I ever had in a season was 101 in 1996 . Least snow was 19.1 in 2012 I believe . Biggest storm  30 plus inches  in 1996 , Best storm ever .  

Yeah, that sounds reasonable.  1996 was a wicked year for snow.  

We have a pretty interesting climate in this town, being that it is so small.  Lot of elevation changes.

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6 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Well we are re-drawing these maps. 15 year running avg for NYC is over 35" now.

It's hilarious they have Riverhead at a 25-30" average and most of the north shore at a 20-25" average.  They should use the Mt. Sinai coop average for the north shore

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8 hours ago, rgwp96 said:

I just saw this , I would say our average is 40-45 depending on what elevation you are . I have been keeeping yearly records for the past  9 years and that average is about 45 .   Most snow I ever had in a season was 101 in 1996 . Least snow wa 19.1 in 2012 I believe . Biggest storm  30 plus inches  in 1996 , Best storm ever .  

The SI region including NJ is a bit off IMO, SI often does well....

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Here comes the well advertised February thaw over the next 10 days or so. February temperature departures should get a nice boost from this.

This will make the 20th month in a row with above normal temps for NYC.

eps_t850a_5d_noram_39.png

 

 

 

 

It's only going to last a few days or a little more,but enough to make it above the so called normal which should be +2 above the 1981-2010 averages to be considered normal for today.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

+2 is going to be too low for this month once we get to about 10 days out. Current monthly departures are +2.3 to +3.6.

Places like LGA will probably be near or over +5 on the month by Feb 24th. We'll then see how the last few days

of the month work out for the final departures. Several stations will finish with the second top ten warmest winter in a row.

Easy +4 to perhaps even +6.  The warmth often overperforms what's modeled and that's one hell of a torch as modeled.   Earlier this fall, some said December would be the coldest month of Met winter (in relation to normals) and that looks to be correct (+2 Dec, +6 Jan and perhaps +4 to +6 for Feb)

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BW could this winter end up in the top 5 warmest?

I believe last winter was the warmest on record (thanks to Dec) and of course the warmest with 30" of snow at NYC and warmest with 40" of snow at JFK.

Warmest two winters in a row we've ever had?

20 consecutive months above normal- is that the record?

 

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