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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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Right now we're in a late October sun angle, so I think we still have a few more weeks before that becomes a major factor. I'm not sure we are going to see an extended period well above average in February. Most of what I've seen points towards seasonable to slightly above seasonable temps. We've also seen major changes in the mid range modeling this Month. Go back ten days and it looked like the entire month  would be snow free.

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2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

woodpeckers?

One was def rotten, shattered into pulp when it fell. 2 others looked really healthy though...part of the problem was the ground never really froze hard before the first storm, and the snow kinda insulated it. Ground is soft and wet underneath the snow. 

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28 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Right now we're in a late October sun angle, so I think we still have a few more weeks before that becomes a major factor. I'm not sure we are going to see an extended period well above average in February. Most of what I've seen points towards seasonable to slightly above seasonable temps. We've also seen major changes in the mid range modeling this Month. Go back ten days and it looked like the entire month  would be snow free.

Feb 19-23 looks like a pretty reasonable torch... 50s possibly 60s

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3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Much stronger winds today then during any HWW event this year...winds in the 50 to 70mph range in gusts.  Saw a few trees down around Westchester.  

Yeah we had that joke of a HWW a month or so ago when surrounding offices issued nothing. Today a HWW would've been warranted for certain areas as Mt Holly issued them 

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Because the forecast was for gusts up to 50mph

Okay I just gusted above 50MPH and I'm running sustained winds just below 40MPH currently. I realize that I am just below the threshhold, but winds are getting stronger and gusts are becoming more frequent by the minute.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Okay I just gusted above 50MPH and I'm running sustained winds just below 40MPH currently. I realize that I am just below the threshhold, but winds are getting stronger and gusts are becoming more frequent by the minute.

Updated at 1123

The bigger story will be the strong winds in response to an
increasing pressure gradient, cold air advection, and pressure
rises. The wind advisory remains in effect for the entire CWA
until 6 pm.

Latest model guidance is hinting that the deepest mixing will occur
this morning into early this afternoon. Winds between 900 and 950 mb
are around 45 kt. This should translate to sustained winds 25-35 mph
with gusts 45-55mph.

If deeper mixing is achieved, gusts could reach 60 mph. However,
right now confidence in this is occurring is low and think this
occurrence would be isolated and confided to the immediate
Atlantic coast and possible higher elevations across the
interior.
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