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February 2017 Discussion & Observations

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Don, this reminds me of what happened last winter. The two main events in late January and early February trended north and west closer to our area

delivering heavier snows than the longer range models were showing. The same thing happened with the blizzard a few days ago. Last winter that

was the signal that everything would start trending south or more suppressed. We can remember how many lows stayed south instead of coming north Feb-Mar.

The storm today and tomorrow trended south breaking the recent pattern. Now it appears that the southern stream will stay more suppressed for the

storm this week. Hopefully, we can put together some more measurable snows near the end of Feb into Mar following the well advertised February 

thaw beginning around next weekend.

Today is interesting, we're getting a combo of sleet and freezing rain here on the south shore and Montauk is getting snow, while Scranton and points NW and W of there are getting rain.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Today is interesting, we're getting a combo of sleet and freezing rain here on the south shore and Montauk is getting snow, while Scranton and points NW and W of there are getting rain.

At the same time that Virginia is near record warmth today. 

Very warm temperatures today. Some record highs are possible.
The table shows forecast high/record high and year and the
normal temperature for February 12th.

Feb 12th  Forecast High  Record High/Year   Normal High

Roanoke       73           73/1999               49

Lynchburg     74           72/1999               48

Danville      78           71/1999               49

Blacksburg    68           65/1999               44

Bluefield     64           65/1984               45
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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At the same time that Virginia is near record warmth today. 


Very warm temperatures today. Some record highs are possible.
The table shows forecast high/record high and year and the
normal temperature for February 12th.

Feb 12th  Forecast High  Record High/Year   Normal High

Roanoke       73           73/1999               49

Lynchburg     74           72/1999               48

Danville      78           71/1999               49

Blacksburg    68           65/1999               44

Bluefield     64           65/1984               45

BW, where is all the really cold Arctic air right now? I did a little tour of what are supposed to be coldest research stations in the NH and none of them are really cold- Summit Camp on the Greenland ice cap for example is only -4 and even the Cold Poles in Siberia aren't all that cold (for them).  They should be like -60 or colder right now and they are anywhere from -20s to -40s right now.

 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Don, this reminds me of what happened last winter. The two main events in late January and early February trended north and west closer to our area

delivering heavier snows than the longer range models were showing. The same thing happened with the blizzard a few days ago. Last winter that

was the signal that everything would start trending south or more suppressed. We can remember how many lows stayed south instead of coming north Feb-Mar.

The storm today and tomorrow trended south breaking the recent pattern. Now it appears that the southern stream will stay more suppressed for the

storm this week. Hopefully, we can put together some more measurable snows near the end of Feb into Mar following the well advertised February 

thaw beginning around next weekend.

A waste of a good teleconnection set-up for sure. Can't complain as most areas are within striking distance of average. If seasonal trend stays the course we could get one more chance at a decent set-up in March.

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

GFS and GGEM improved for the Thursday's storm

Lets get this current storm out of the way and see what the models show for Thursday

Pattern supports a snow event

I agree the CMC looks better, but Ukemet looked to take step in opposite direction. GFS looks the same. I am still hopeful for a light event.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Paragon said:

BW, where is all the really cold Arctic air right now? I did a little tour of what are supposed to be coldest research stations in the NH and none of them are really cold- Summit Camp on the Greenland ice cap for example is only -4 and even the Cold Poles in Siberia aren't all that cold (for them).  They should be like -60 or colder right now and they are anywhere from -20s to -40s right now.

 

Very limited pockets of cold this winter across the NH amid a sea of warm.

 

temps.gif

 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

A waste of a good teleconnection set-up for sure. Can't complain as most areas are within striking distance of average. If seasonal trend stays the course we could get one more chance at a decent set-up in March.

Yeah, many places are already in the 20-30" range for the season which is a great outcome for how mild it has been. 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very limited pockets of cold this winter across the NH amid a sea of warm.

 

temps.gif

 

I feel bad for Greenland, melt melt melt goes the ice cap.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summit_Camp

 

Climate[edit]

The climate is classified as polar, and the weather is highly variable. Typical daily maximum temperatures at Summit Camp are around −35 °C (−31 °F) in winter (January) and −10 °C (14 °F) in summer (July). Winter minimum temperatures are typically about −45 °C (−49 °F) and only rarely exceed −20 °C (−4 °F). Annual precipitation is about 3,000 mm (118.1 in), much of which falls as sleet or snow, which is possible in any month. Inland, the snow line in summer is at an altitude of about 300 m (984 ft). The highest temperature at Summit Camp was 3.6 °C (38.5 °F), recorded on July 16, 2012; the lowest recorded temperature is −67.2 °C (−89.0 °F).[6][7]

[hide]Climate data for Automatic Weather Station (AWS), Summit Camp, Greenland Ice Sheet
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
Average high °C (°F) −36
(−33) 		−38
(−36) 		−32
(−26) 		−29
(−20) 		−19
(−2) 		−11
(12) 		−11
(12) 		−14
(7) 		−22
(−8) 		−28
(−18) 		−28
(−18) 		−36
(−33) 		−25.3
(−13.6)
Daily mean °C (°F) −43
(−45) 		−42
(−44) 		−41
(−42) 		−33
(−27) 		−23
(−9) 		−15
(5) 		−13
(9) 		−16
(3) 		−26
(−15) 		−34
(−29) 		−36
(−33) 		−40
(−40) 		−30.2
(−22.2)
Average low °C (°F) −48
(−54) 		−46
(−51) 		−45
(−49) 		−40
(−40) 		−30
(−22) 		−19
(−2) 		−15
(5) 		−21
(−6) 		−29
(−20) 		−39
(−38) 		−42
(−44) 		−48
(−54) 		−35.2
(−31.2)
Source: [8]

In July 2012, satellite imagery showed there was an "unprecedented" melt of the Greenland ice sheet. In just four days from 8 July, the area of thawed surface ice grew from 40% to almost 97% of the entire ice sheet surface.[9]

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, many places are already in the 20-30" range for the season which is a great outcome for how mild it has been. 

What do you consider our average snowfall? I see the NWS has us in the 20-25" range and then I see others mention 28" or even 30" as average.  I suppose a few miles makes a big difference.

 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Paragon said:

What do you consider our average snowfall? I see the NWS has us in the 20-25" range and then I see others mention 28" or even 30" as average.  I suppose a few miles makes a big difference.

 

JFK so far...23.3"....seasonal average...23.8"......ISP so far....31.5".....seasonal average...24.8"

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK so far...23.3"....seasonal average...23.8"......ISP so far....31.5".....seasonal average...24.8"

30 year running average, BW?

Not a huge range from SE Queens to mid island.

But the averages are similar.

We beat JFK in the last storm though, we had 11 inches here and I think they reported around 8.  The other storms were very similar (except the in the early January storm we had about 1.5-2 inches more.)  Just adding up the three "big" storms here in December, January and February gives me about 24-25"

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very close to the warmest day ever in February there which is 83 degrees. This would be like NYC going into the low 70's during February.

Wow and you said that somewhere in Texas hit 99 degrees? When was a last time a location in the CONUS has hit 100 in either January or February?

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Paragon said:

I feel bad for Greenland, melt melt melt goes the ice cap.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summit_Camp

 

Climate[edit]

The climate is classified as polar, and the weather is highly variable. Typical daily maximum temperatures at Summit Camp are around −35 °C (−31 °F) in winter (January) and −10 °C (14 °F) in summer (July). Winter minimum temperatures are typically about −45 °C (−49 °F) and only rarely exceed −20 °C (−4 °F). Annual precipitation is about 3,000 mm (118.1 in), much of which falls as sleet or snow, which is possible in any month. Inland, the snow line in summer is at an altitude of about 300 m (984 ft). The highest temperature at Summit Camp was 3.6 °C (38.5 °F), recorded on July 16, 2012; the lowest recorded temperature is −67.2 °C (−89.0 °F).[6][7]

[hide]Climate data for Automatic Weather Station (AWS), Summit Camp, Greenland Ice Sheet
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
Average high °C (°F) −36
(−33) 		−38
(−36) 		−32
(−26) 		−29
(−20) 		−19
(−2) 		−11
(12) 		−11
(12) 		−14
(7) 		−22
(−8) 		−28
(−18) 		−28
(−18) 		−36
(−33) 		−25.3
(−13.6)
Daily mean °C (°F) −43
(−45) 		−42
(−44) 		−41
(−42) 		−33
(−27) 		−23
(−9) 		−15
(5) 		−13
(9) 		−16
(3) 		−26
(−15) 		−34
(−29) 		−36
(−33) 		−40
(−40) 		−30.2
(−22.2)
Average low °C (°F) −48
(−54) 		−46
(−51) 		−45
(−49) 		−40
(−40) 		−30
(−22) 		−19
(−2) 		−15
(5) 		−21
(−6) 		−29
(−20) 		−39
(−38) 		−42
(−44) 		−48
(−54) 		−35.2
(−31.2)
Source: [8]

In July 2012, satellite imagery showed there was an "unprecedented" melt of the Greenland ice sheet. In just four days from 8 July, the area of thawed surface ice grew from 40% to almost 97% of the entire ice sheet surface.[9]

Actually Greenland has gained a lot of mass this winter due to higher than average snowfall.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Wow and you said that somewhere in Texas hit 99 degrees? When was a last time a location in the CONUS has hit 100 in either January or February?

An OK state temp. record for Feb. was tied Sat. (99˚ at Mangum), 13 days earlier than the existing record (Feb. 24, 1918). Image:@okmesonet

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted

So warmer than normal temps + more moisture = larger ice coverage as well as deeper snowcover?  I wonder what will happen there in the summer?  Remember that Summit Camp is right in the middle of the ice cap, not a city or town on the coast, but a research station, so it's more comparable to a place like Vostok or Dome A, rather than an inhabited town like Ojmjakon or Verkhojansk in Siberia.

 

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Superstorm

Superstorm

Posted
Posted
Yeah for us lol.  That winter there was a big gradient between us and the MA too, which fueled the early February back to back snowstorms.


Yeah, no kidding. Had nearly a 100" of snow near Harrisburg, PA. And tons of storms (both ice and snow). Textbook winter.

-22F at MDT in January of that year is still the record.

I was going to school at Pitt and had ice storm with temps in the teens that encased my car for weeks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

My thoughts on the remainder of the winter are as follows:

 

The physical mechanisms broached in foregoing conversations are still valid insofar as the forthcoming tropospheric pattern, but I feel differently regarding the timing for reasons which will be elucidated here. The negative NAM / NAO period over the past ten days is not related to the current MJO forcing - rather, it is a direct response to the rapid downwelling induced via the stratospheric warming / w=1 event at the beginning of the month. I am also convinced that the reconsolidation of the vortex from near 0 m/s zonal winds to slightly weaker than average is an insufficient factor contributing to the modelled medium range blowtorch. The coherent propagation of the u signal through P-7 is a very warm signal when accounting for background conditions, and so, this is likely the first time - in my opinion - that the MJO forcing is superseding other variables such as the depressed vortex state. The amplified MJO propagation is both deleterious and beneficial, therefore. The progged torch centered on February 20th +/- 3 days makes sense due to the attendant lag time w/ the extratropical circulation. As a result, there will be a break in the favorability, but I strongly believe that we have not seen our last winter event of the season. I never expected this winter to be an overall "wintry" one with persistent snowpack and frequent opportunities, so the potential for late winter always concerned setting up a more propitious pattern for another snowfall. There is a +MT and concomitant jet extension with Nino-esque GWO/AAM forcing over the next several days. Initially, I thought that w2 generation would be enhanced due to the tropospheric precursors, and it has, but not sufficiently so to impact the upper stratosphere. The models are now detecting the amplified w1 generation associated with the propagating MJO wave and precursor pattern. With the vortex already in a weakened state, and guaranteed robust MJO forcing w/ induction of planetary waves, I would anticipate another stratospheric attack circa Feb 20-25. This coincides well with the time-lag of the MJO. A second zonal wind reversal is possible, but not definitive. Even if there isn't a zonal wind reversal, I think we will see a gradually improving tropospheric pattern once again by the last week of February - especially after the 24th-25th. I'm not particularly crazy about the 22nd-23rd period for a storm because we're in between periods of favorability. I think the next time frame to monitor for a threat would be toward the last few days of February or early March. Whether that's the final opportunity is indeterminate. To me, this was a 20-26" winter for Central Park, so we've already reached my expectations snowfall wise, and there's room for another event. It's possible, if factors progress as I expect, that Central Park finishes close to normal in terms of snowfall. It's possible they don't. Based upon the above, it is my opinion that winter in the sense of snowfall chances is not "over" yet. There will be a warm break, epitomizing the pattern of this winter overall.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Don, this reminds me of what happened last winter. The two main events in late January and early February trended north and west closer to our area

delivering heavier snows than the longer range models were showing. The same thing happened with the blizzard a few days ago. Last winter that

was the signal that everything would start trending south or more suppressed. We can remember how many lows stayed south instead of coming north Feb-Mar.

The storm today and tomorrow trended south breaking the recent pattern. Now it appears that the southern stream will stay more suppressed for the

storm this week. Hopefully, we can put together some more measurable snows near the end of Feb into Mar following the well advertised February 

thaw beginning around next weekend.

I agree that there are a lot of similarities. Like you, I hope for some measurable snows following the thaw. It will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves afterward.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, many places are already in the 20-30" range for the season which is a great outcome for how mild it has been. 

the storms have really underperformed in NJ, I think 4-5 the Jan event and i read 6-7 for last thursday but it looked like about 4-5 to me, there were a couple inch events, puts us around 10-12 inches so far, not gonna get to average out here unless we get a whopper or two.

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