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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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9 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

If you or whoever is the proper owner wouldn't mind sharing them, I'd love to add them to my 2/78 page:

http://www.northshorewx.com/19780207.asp

I doubt very much there was any rain in Riverhead.  A coastal front affected parts of the south shore out to Montauk overnight, but that was transient and I think just resulted in a wetter snow for a time.  Possibly some rain could have mixed at Montauk, but there is no evidence of it.  The north shore was basically low - mid 20's during the storm.

The other big northeast snow storm that winter 1/20/78, ended as a light frozen mix, but started as snow.

 

 

Unfortunately, I'm not the owner of the photos and I had a bit of a falling out with the owner so it may prove to be a tall order to gain access once again. However, if that changes or I come across anything else from that storm I would absolutely share them with you. I would have loved to share them here as they were impressive. Thank you for clarifying for me the coastal front situation. I was totally unsure of that and I trust your input greatly. Lastly, great page there!!! Love the photos.

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38 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Ah, I was wondering why you guys were warmer.  We've only had a few peeks of sunshine here and it's been overcast for a few hours now.

Yeah, lot of sun here today.  Towards sunset it got overcast though.

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Definitely a lot melting here on the south shore. In a few days we'll just have dirt piles left.

The snowpack took a big hit today for sure.

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2nd winter in a row where blocking originating near the Kara-Barents Seas lead to a blizzard for our area. Many studies linking the record low sea ice

in that region with these strong blocking patterns. Would be nice to have a custom KB blocking index to add to the NAO and AO.

 

17.gif

 

 

 

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With the AO now increasingly looking like it's going to go positive after mid-month in combination with an EPO+, it appears that the window of opportunity for snowfall will close shortly thereafter. Despite what seems like a nice 500 mb pattern on paper for the Wednesday-Friday period next week, it looks as if the proverbial pieces (shortwaves) won't be in position for a phased storm to impact the region with a significant snowfall. Instead, the storm will likely develop too far offshore for such an outcome. A smaller snowfall remains possible. 

Before then, parts of the region north of NYC could see measurable snowfall tomorrow into Monday.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the AO now increasingly looking like it's going to go positive after mid-month in combination with an EPO+, it appears that the window of opportunity for snowfall will close shortly thereafter. Despite what seems like a nice 500 mb pattern on paper for the Wednesday-Friday period next week, it looks as if the proverbial pieces (shortwaves) won't be in position for a phased storm to impact the region with a significant snowfall. Instead, the storm will likely develop too far offshore for such an outcome. A smaller snowfall remains possible. 

Before then, parts of the region north of NYC could see measurable snowfall tomorrow into Monday.

What about end of February into early March?

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

2nd winter in a row where blocking originating near the Kara-Barents Seas lead to a blizzard for our area. Many studies linking the record low sea ice

in that region with these strong blocking patterns. Would be nice to have a custom KB blocking index to add to the NAO and AO.

 

17.gif

 

 

 

Maybe this is the reason why we're getting above normal snowfall with above normal temps.  This might be typical for us for awhile until the warmth overwhelms our latitude like it has done in the Arctic.

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12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the AO now increasingly looking like it's going to go positive after mid-month in combination with an EPO+, it appears that the window of opportunity for snowfall will close shortly thereafter. Despite what seems like a nice 500 mb pattern on paper for the Wednesday-Friday period next week, it looks as if the proverbial pieces (shortwaves) won't be in position for a phased storm to impact the region with a significant snowfall. Instead, the storm will likely develop too far offshore for such an outcome. A smaller snowfall remains possible. 

Before then, parts of the region north of NYC could see measurable snowfall tomorrow into Monday.

Don, this reminds me of what happened last winter. The two main events in late January and early February trended north and west closer to our area

delivering heavier snows than the longer range models were showing. The same thing happened with the blizzard a few days ago. Last winter that

was the signal that everything would start trending south or more suppressed. We can remember how many lows stayed south instead of coming north Feb-Mar.

The storm today and tomorrow trended south breaking the recent pattern. Now it appears that the southern stream will stay more suppressed for the

storm this week. Hopefully, we can put together some more measurable snows near the end of Feb into Mar following the well advertised February 

thaw beginning around next weekend.

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7 hours ago, Paragon said:

Maybe this is the reason why we're getting above normal snowfall with above normal temps.  This might be typical for us for awhile until the warmth overwhelms our latitude like it has done in the Arctic.

It's the second winter in a row for the snowfall to get saved by the KB block. Just shows how powerful these blocks can be to produce blizzards 

during mild winter patterns. That has been the dominant area of winter blocking in the means during the 2000's.

 

500.png

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